Georgia at the crossroads

For more than two months, mass demonstrations have dominated Georgia, a small, yet strategically vital, country in the South Caucasus. These protests initially erupted in response to parliamentary elections in late October, widely regarded by international and local observers as fraudulent.

The situation intensified dramatically in November when Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced that Georgia would suspend its EU membership talks until at least 2028. Considering that 80 percent of Georgians support joining the bloc — according to consistent polling, including among Georgian Dream voters — this decision struck a nerve.

The government’s actions have sparked a wave of unrest unseen since Georgia’s 2003 Rose Revolution. Adding fuel to the fire, Georgian Dream recently orchestrated the election of a new president under questionable circumstances. President Salome Zurabishvili’s term ended last month, marking the end of the Georgian people directly electing presidents. This time, the president was chosen by an Electoral College in parliament dominated by Georgian Dream. Opposition parties, boycotting parliament in protest of the October elections, were absent, effectively ensuring victory for Georgian Dream’s candidate.

For the first time since independence in 1991, Georgia’s military abstained from its traditional parade in Tbilisi during the new president’s inauguration. This symbolic gesture from a military that prides itself on being apolitical reflects broader dissatisfaction within the institution.

What happens in Georgia will not stay in Georgia — it will reverberate across the region.

Luke Coffey

Meanwhile, Zurabishvili declared herself the “people’s president,” pledging to challenge Georgian Dream’s increasing authoritarianism. In her parting words, she affirmed that the presidency’s legitimacy is rooted not in a building but in the will of the people, therefore arguing that she remains the legitimate president of the country.

Georgian Dream’s transformation from a pro-Western coalition in 2012 to its current pro-Russian iteration is not surprising for those who follow Georgian politics.  While elements of the party always harbored pro-Moscow sentiments, they were once marginalized by those who took a more Euro-Atlanticist outlook. Over the years, those pro-Russian voices have risen to prominence, sidelining Western-oriented members and redirecting the party’s trajectory.

Today, Georgian Dream’s policies reflect a Kremlin-aligned worldview, including denouncing Western sanctions on Russia, deepening economic ties with Moscow, and blaming NATO for the war in Ukraine. Considering that Georgia has long aspired to join NATO and the EU, these are unusual policy positions to take.

Georgia’s historical relationship with Russia is marked by betrayal. It is important to know this history to better understand the events of today. In the late 18th century, Imperial Russia offered security guarantees to the Kingdom of Kartli-Kakheti, the precursor to modern Georgia, only to abandon it during a Persian invasion in 1795.

After the Persians withdrew, Russia annexed Georgia in 1801. A similar betrayal occurred in 1920 when Soviet Russia signed the Treaty of Moscow, pledging to respect Georgia’s sovereignty after the latter declared independence in 1918. Less than a year later, the Soviet Union invaded, overthrowing Georgia’s government and incorporating it into the USSR.

Georgia’s unfolding crisis might seem peripheral. But ignoring it would be a mistake.

Luke Coffey

This history of betrayal has left a deep mistrust of Russia among many Georgians. Life in the Soviet Union and the 2008 Russian invasion reinforced these fears. Moscow also occupies 20 percent of Georgia’s internationally recognized territory to this day. For Georgians, these historical grievances are not distant memories but lived realities, influencing their geopolitical aspirations.

The current protests are the culmination of these grievances and fears. While Georgian Dream has maintained its grip on power through media suppression, undermining civil society, and discrediting political opposition, public discontent has reached a boiling point. Georgians have demonstrated their willingness to stand up for their European aspirations repeatedly, most notably in May when hundreds of thousands protested against a law seen as restricting civil society. But the current protests are different in their intensity, scale, and persistence.

With Georgia’s EU membership aspirations enjoying widespread public support, the government’s decision to suspend talks has galvanized even those who previously supported Georgian Dream. The sheer size and duration of these protests are unprecedented in Georgia’s recent history. For comparison, the 2003 Rose Revolution lasted 21 days before achieving change, while Ukraine’s Euromaidan protests lasted 93 days. As of this week, the Georgian protests have surpassed 65 days, and show no signs of abating.

The international community must pay closer attention to Georgia for two critical reasons. First, Georgia’s strategic location makes it a geopolitical linchpin. Situated at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, Georgia serves as a vital corridor for energy supplies, with oil and gas pipelines traversing its territory. These pipelines are essential for diversifying Europe’s energy sources and reducing dependence on Russian energy. Any instability in Georgia could disrupt these supply lines, with global ramifications.

Second, Georgia’s crisis offers Russia an opportunity for intervention. With its setbacks in Syria and an inability to achieve a major breakthrough in Ukraine, the Kremlin may view Georgia as an easier target to reassert its influence.

The current protests are not just about electoral fraud or the EU membership suspension; they are about Georgia’s identity and its place in the world. Will Georgia continue on its Euro-Atlantic trajectory, or will it revert back to the Russian orbit against the will of most people?

As the world faces an array of challenges in 2025, from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East to economic instability, Georgia’s unfolding crisis might seem peripheral. But ignoring it would be a mistake.

Georgia is at a crossroads, and its future hangs in the balance. The international community must not turn a blind eye. What happens in Georgia will not stay in Georgia — it will reverberate across the region and beyond.

• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey