The Syrian refugees in a post-Assad era

The Syrian refugee crisis is one of the most harrowing humanitarian catastrophes of the 21st century.

Triggered by a civil war that erupted in 2011, the conflict displaced more than 13 million Syrians, half of the country’s pre-war population. Among these, approximately 6.8 million sought refuge abroad, primarily in neighboring countries such as Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan, as well as in Europe and beyond. Their plight became a symbol of human suffering, resilience, and the challenges of global solidarity.

Now, with the fall of Bashar Assad, some Western countries have initiated efforts to repatriate Syrian refugees, citing changing conditions on the ground. However, the complexities of Syria’s devastated economy, crumbled infrastructure, and societal scars warrant a more cautious approach to repatriation.

During the civil war, many Syrians risked perilous journeys across the Mediterranean to seek safety in Europe. Images of overcrowded boats and tragic drownings stirred global attention, yet responses varied widely. Some countries opened their doors, while others closed borders or erected barriers to limit the influx.

The refugee crisis underscored profound challenges: the strain on host countries’ resources; the difficulty of integrating large refugee populations; and the enduring trauma faced by those who fled. Syrians struggled to find stable employment, access to healthcare, and secure education for their children. Despite these hardships, many often clung to the hope of returning home.

While the fall of Assad marks a significant turning point, Syria appears to be far from ready to accommodate the return of millions of its displaced citizens. The war’s toll on the country’s economy and infrastructure is staggering. Entire cities lie in ruins, with essential services like water, electricity, and healthcare severely compromised. According to estimates, rebuilding Syria could take hundreds of billions of dollars and decades of effort. Roads, schools, hospitals and homes must be reconstructed before large-scale returns can be viable.

The economic landscape is equally dire. Syria’s GDP has contracted sharply since the war began, and industries that once provided livelihoods for millions have collapsed. Agriculture, a cornerstone of the pre-war economy, has been devastated by conflict and climate change. Many factories and businesses have been destroyed or abandoned, leaving a vacuum of employment opportunities. Inflation and currency devaluation have rendered basic goods unaffordable for much of the population.

For those who do return, the challenges are formidable. Housing is one of the most immediate and pressing issues. Many refugees’ homes have been destroyed, seized, or occupied by others. Legal disputes over property rights are likely to be widespread, particularly in a country where documentation was lost or destroyed during the war.

Economic reintegration poses another major hurdle. With high unemployment and limited job opportunities, returnees may struggle to support themselves and their families. Skilled workers may find that their professions are no longer viable due to the destruction of infrastructure or shifts in the economy. Farmers returning to rural areas may face land that has been rendered infertile by neglect or conflict. In urban areas, small businesses that once thrived may no longer have a customer base or the resources to restart operations.

Access to basic services is another significant concern. Healthcare facilities are scarce and overwhelmed, with shortages of staff, equipment, and medicine. Schools have been destroyed or repurposed. Refugees returning to such conditions may find that their quality of life is no better — and perhaps worse — than in the countries where they sought asylum.

In addition, the psychological toll of return cannot be overlooked. Many refugees have endured profound trauma, from witnessing violence to losing loved ones. Returning to a country that still bears the scars of war may exacerbate these mental health challenges. Support systems, such as counseling and community networks, are limited or non-existent in many parts of Syria.

Despite these challenges, many Syrians hope that Syria can one day reclaim stability, security, and prosperity. After 13 years of relentless conflict, the prospect of peace may offer a glimmer of possibility for millions of Syrians longing for normalcy. With time, the reconstruction of infrastructure, the revival of the economy, and the healing of societal divisions can hopefully pave the way for a brighter future.

The rebuilding of Syria’s infrastructure will be a monumental task, but it is essential for enabling refugees to return and rebuild their lives. Roads, bridges, and public services must be restored to connect communities and facilitate economic activity. Schools and hospitals must be reconstructed to provide education and healthcare, laying the foundation for a healthier and more prosperous society. Investments in renewable energy and modern technology could help Syria leapfrog some development challenges, creating opportunities for innovation and growth.

As stability takes hold, the Syrian economy has the potential to recover and even thrive. Agriculture can be revitalized through investment in irrigation and sustainable practices. Industries such as manufacturing and construction can provide jobs and drive economic growth. Tourism, once a major contributor to Syria’s economy, could gradually rebound as historical sites are restored and security improves. The entrepreneurial spirit of the Syrian people, evident in the diaspora, can play a crucial role in rebuilding the nation.

Social healing will be equally important. Programs aimed at reconciliation and community building can help bridge divides and foster a sense of unity. Education will be key to equipping the next generation with the skills and knowledge needed to rebuild their country. Cultural and artistic initiatives can celebrate Syria’s rich heritage and inspire a sense of shared identity.

While the road ahead is long and fraught with challenges, the resilience of the Syrian people offers hope. For those who have endured unimaginable hardship, the dream of returning to a safe and thriving homeland is a powerful motivator. With patience and perseverance, many Syrians hope that their country can rise from the ashes of war, offering its citizens the security, stability, and opportunities they deserve. The international community will undoubtedly watch as the Syrian people work toward their hope of a brighter future, determined to rebuild their lives and their nation.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh