Al-Sharaa’s arrival and the cups of poison

Rarely does local, regional and international attention all shift to one man. This only happens at major turning points. It is no simple feat for a man in his 40s to arrive at the Umayyad Square in Damascus to end more than half a century of Assad family rule in Syria. The Syrian Baath Party was ousted by Syrian hands. This development may have consequences that overshadow even those of the overthrow of Saddam Hussein during the US invasion of Iraq.

The scene was monumental. Ahmad Al-Sharaa at the Umayyad Square and Bashar Assad beginning his exile in Russia. What makes this even more fascinating is that Al-Sharaa is not some stranger. The world knew him before as Abu Mohammed Al-Golani. He was a wanted man and many followed his journey with Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi and Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi before he broke off from them. Al-Qaeda, Daesh and the Al-Nusra Front were the groups making headlines during that time, before he settled on Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham.

The Syrians, people of the region and the world have the right to know what his plans are. What does Al-Sharaa want? Does his rebranding reflect an actual change in his behavior and thinking? What kind of Syria does he want? Will he be able to run the factions that carried him to Damascus and labeled him the “strongman” in Syria until another title is bestowed upon him?

Will he be able to rein in his comrades who are seeking war here and there? Has HTS really changed during all those years in Idlib? Is it ready to reconcile with the reality of Syria’s demographic fabric, regional balances and international conditions? Some believe that Syria can live with the new version of Al-Sharaa, but it would not be able to live under what Al-Golani represented.

A united Syria must focus on combating poverty and catching up with development and progress

Ghassan Charbel

Questions. Questions. Questions. Are the conditions available for the establishment of a Syria that is built on institutions, national loyalties, the rule of law and justice, away from revenge and the settling of scores? What about the Sunnis, Alawites, Druze and Christians? What about the Arabs and Kurds? What about human and women’s rights, personal freedoms and curricula?

A united Syria must focus on combating poverty and catching up with development and progress. A Syria that lives within its borders without any delusions about an aggressive regional role or exporting a model that none of its neighbors want. What about Syria’s relations with its Arab fold, Iran and Turkiye? What about its position relating to Israel? Al-Sharaa has made assurances, but clearer statements and firmer assertions are needed.

Al-Sharaa’s appearance at the Umayyad Square completed the image of the earthquake: Syria without Assad, without Iran and without Hezbollah. The so-called Axis of Resistance has been forced into retirement — at least for now. The Tehran-Beirut route, which Qassem Soleimani had shed blood and spent billions to pave, has been firmly severed. Assad’s toppling returned Hezbollah to the Lebanese map and its leader is acknowledging that supply routes, which were vital for its regional role, have been cut. We are standing before a new Syria and a new Lebanon.

Al-Sharaa’s appearance rang warning bells in nearby capitals. Syria is connected to the region and its future affects the region’s security, stability and balances. Baghdad feared that the reversal of equations in Syria would whet the appetite of those keen on flipping the script in Iraq. Amman feared that Syria was headed toward a thorny path, so the Aqaba meeting was held to demonstrate the Arab and international desire to support an “inclusive political process” in Syria.

Lebanon, which is without a head of state, has again started to search for a suitable presidential candidate. It wonders whether Hezbollah has learned the “bitter lesson” of Syria, as described by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Hossein Salami.

Syria is connected to the region and its future affects the region’s security, stability and balances

Ghassan Charbel

Al-Sharaa’s appearance has a clear regional message. Turkiye has not hidden its role in ousting Assad, who had rejected repeated calls to meet with Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It was evident that the Turkish leader played a decisive role in persuading Russia and Iran to drink from the poisoned cup. Russia abandoned the man whom it had intervened militarily to save. Iran relinquished the Syrian passage to Lebanon. Tehran had played the role of supreme leader during Assad’s rule. Turkiye may assume this role during Al-Sharaa’s rule. But we must wait and see what guarantees and bandages Erdogan pledged to Russia and Iran in exchange for their abandonment of Assad.

Israel acted with brazen hostility as soon as Assad was out of the picture. It destroyed the last remaining capabilities of the Syrian army. It seems that it is expecting the new Syria to be a source of danger rather than stability. It treated Al-Sharaa’s appearance as another appearance by Al-Golani.

Will Turkiye sponsor the building and armament of the new Syrian army? Will Israel agree to Turkiye being so close to its border after it waged a long war against Iran’s entrenchment there? Will Iran accept seeing the region swing in Turkiye’s favor, or is it banking on a setback in Syria that it can exploit to worm its way back in?

The world did not shed a tear over the fall of the Captagon republic. The extent of the oppression, horrors and torture in Sednaya prison left no room for sorrow. The sight of the iron execution press outdid the imaginations of the most prolific writers of horror stories. The new Syria will benefit from the Syrian, Arab and international condemnation of the barbarity of the heads of the security agencies that were in power for so long. But the future is more important than the past and the coming months will reveal whether Syria has opened a window to the future.

Al-Sharaa’s appearance was a poisoned cup for the regime and its allies. The important thing now is for Syria to steer clear of chaos, violence, terrorism and civil strife.

• Ghassan Charbel is editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. X: @GhasanCharbel

This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.