Assad’s downfall and fate decided in Damascus

The long night in Damascus was nothing short of seismic. Opponents could not have predicted the rapid collapse of the Syrian regime. The army was not prepared to fight the opposition advance that was gaining momentum. Russia did not want to get involved and Hezbollah was exhausted.

Bashar Assad saw the writing on the wall. It happens. The errors committed by the ruler accumulated and he had no other choice than to seek exile. So, he got on that plane and left.

Syria on Sunday woke up to a new and unbelievable reality. It did not find the man who had been in power for 24 years. The man who was believed to be different and who would not face the same fate as others. No one believed that the American tanks would advance and tear down his statues like they did to Saddam Hussein’s statues in Baghdad. He was not worried as he watched Libyans chase down Muammar Qaddafi and end his life and years of rule.

It never occurred to him that he could face the same fate as Ali Abdullah Saleh at the hands of the Houthis. He dismissed the scenes of Hosni Mubarak in court. He never believed that he would suffer the same fate as Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali.

Assad was confident that he was strong, different and capable of weathering the storms. Assad believed that he inherited from his father a regime that could fight fires and contain earthquakes, which were many during his long term.

Syria on Sunday woke up to a new and unbelievable reality. It did not find the man who had been in power for 24 years

Ghassan Charbel

He lived through the earthquake of the Sept. 11, 2001, attack and ordered his security agencies to cooperate in a limited capacity with the Americans. He had not yet developed his leanings toward Iran, but the American invasion of Iraq pushed him in that direction. He feared that the Baath Party’s rule would be the American campaign’s next target after it was done with Iraq. Damascus and Tehran had a mutual interest in destabilizing the “American formula” in Iraq. Syria opened its borders to militiamen wanting to resist the American occupation of Iraq.

The second earthquake would come from Beirut. On Feb. 14, 2005, Rafik Hariri was assassinated in the Lebanese capital. The massive anger of the Lebanese people forced Assad to withdraw his forces from Lebanon. In Syria, there was a growing belief that the country’s influence that was cultivated by Hafez Assad was starting to wane under Bashar.

In 2006, when Hezbollah feared that the Lebanese March 14 movement would alter Lebanon’s regional stance, it went to war with Israel, helping to break Damascus’ international isolation.

In the early 2010s, the so-called Arab Spring swept through the region. Like many others, Assad believed that opening just a small window of change would bring down the entire house. So, he cracked down on the protests and did not hold back in his brutality and oppression. Hundreds of thousands of people were killed and millions displaced. He resorted to barrel bombs and chemical weapons. The opposition drew near his palace, but the Vladimir Putin-Qassem Soleimani understanding helped him fend off the earthquake.

Assad came to power in the year 2000, six months after Putin assumed control of Russia and the international scene and less than three years before Recep Tayyip Erdogan would arrive on the scene in Turkiye. Add Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei into the mix and you get an idea of the type of men who left their mark on Assad’s fate.

One day, Putin did not hesitate to criticize Assad’s mistakes in front of an Iraqi delegation who had complained about the Syrian ruler. But Putin’s calculations would change when he decided to crown the capture of Crimea by establishing a foothold on the Mediterranean. And so, he allowed Russia’s aerial intervention in Syria.

Al-Golani lit the spark. The still waters became a flood that swept Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Damascus

Ghassan Charbel

Assad and Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a strange relationship. They got along very well at first but, after falling out, they never saw eye to eye again. So, Assad turned to Hassan Nasrallah. Hezbollah became more powerful than the Syrian army, deepening tensions in Syria.

When Yahya Sinwar launched his Al-Aqsa Flood Operation, Nasrallah soon followed by declaring a “support front.” Assad tried to keep a distance from the developments. He played a big game with a hostile player called Benjamin Netanyahu, who would have a say in deciding Assad’s fate. Netanyahu destroyed Gaza and then shifted to the timing of the American elections to take out the Hezbollah leadership.

Balances were upended. In Idlib, Assad’s opponents were waiting for the right opportunity to pounce. They never believed in the “de-escalation” agreement and “Trump time.” Erdogan chose to punish Assad, who repeatedly refused offers to hold a meeting. He punished Assad and Syria’s Kurds as well.

Ahmed Al-Sharaa, known as Abu Mohammed Al-Golani, lit the spark. The still waters became a flood that swept Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Damascus. Soleimani and Nasrallah were no longer there to help Assad. The supreme leader did not have an answer and Putin was mired in the bloodbath in Ukraine.

Fates were decided in Damascus during that long night. It changed the fate of Syria and its regional position. It changed the regional scene. It severed the route of exporting the revolution and the smuggling of rockets from Tehran to Beirut. Hezbollah was brought down to size from its regional role to returning to UN Security Council Resolution 1701. One night in Damascus changed balances in Lebanon.

The scene was different yesterday. Syria is without Assad and without Hezbollah. Assad got on that plane and left. An entire era is over. The president left Syria and the region is left to grapple with the “day after” and its challenges.

• Ghassan Charbel is editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. X: @GhasanCharbel

This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.