Israel and the evangelical conundrum

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was ecstatic with Donald Trump’s US election victory. Trump’s new administration will be heavily served by evangelicals, from his pick for secretary of defense to the ambassador to Israel. Netanyahu sees this as the opportunity of a lifetime to realize his dream of a “Greater Israel:” kicking the Palestinians off their land and taking over all of historical Palestine. However, things might not turn out the way he and his messianic government imagine. And the evangelicals might not be the allies to Israel that Netanyahu wishes.

The messianic extremists in Netanyahu’s government would be happy to annex the West Bank. Already, there has been talk of resettling in Gaza. Trump might agree to the West Bank’s annexation in the same way he agreed to the annexation of the Golan Heights in his first term. He could do that to please his base of evangelicals, who are driven by Christian nationalism, not by a love of Israel or the Jews.

However, the pertinent question is: what comes after? If Israel were to annex the West Bank, what would it do with the Palestinians? It is important to note that Israel is the only country in the world that has not defined its borders at the UN. It has left the door open for any annexed land. However, if it annexed the Occupied Territories, even with Trump’s blessing, that does not mean he would agree to the Israeli extremists’ ultimate goal: ethnic cleansing.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich this week reiterated his call for Israel to occupy the Gaza Strip and reduce the Palestinian population there “by half within two years.” But ethnic cleansing was much easier to hide in 1948 and 1967 than it is today. Now, with the rise of social and independent media, it would be difficult to hide something as big as ethnic cleansing.

Even if Trump gives his blessing to annexation, that does not mean he would agree to the Israeli extremists’ ultimate goal: ethnic cleansing

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

On the other hand, Israel is already facing scrutiny from the international community. It has been accused of genocide by the UN’s special rapporteur on Palestine. Pope Francis alluded to a possible genocide. There is a genocide case in front of the International Court of Justice. The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense chief. Hence, it is unlikely that the world would allow another wave of ethnic cleansing. Arab countries also know that each wave is a problem for generations to come.

However, annexation could be a way to coopt the progressive left, depending on how Trump presents it. Many on the progressive left do not talk about a Palestinian state. They talk about decolonizing Palestine, about it being free from the river to the sea. Hence, annexation might be accepted if it was presented as allowing everybody who lives there, regardless of their ethnicity or religion, to live in dignity, have equal rights and be free from oppression.

Trump’s major domestic battle is likely to be over the deportation of immigrants. So, he will not want to open another front with the progressives regarding Palestine. The Palestinian cause could be a way for him to please his base and appease the opposition at the same time.

Trump knows very well that the population transfer that Netanyahu dreams of could be a trigger for a regional war

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Also, Trump does not share the worldview of Netanyahu, who advocates striking Iran and changing the regime in Tehran. He campaigned on an antiwar platform. Even in June 2019, when the Iranians shut down an American drone, he refrained from hitting Iran. Israel underestimates Trump’s isolationist streak. He would not want to wage another war in the region for Israel’s sake.

Trump knows very well that the population transfer that Netanyahu dreams of could be a trigger for a regional war. Evicting 3 million Palestinians to Jordan would cause an existential threat to the Hashemite kingdom. In this case, Hamas could be revived and a front extending from Iran to Iraq to Jordan and possibly Syria would open. Will Trump want to run this risk? In addition, the US would be the subject of scrutiny both internationally and domestically if it allowed another wave of ethnic cleansing.

There is another factor that Netanyahu is not really paying attention to: Project 2025. Trump intends to increase the executive power of the president. This would basically mean less pressure from Congress. Several times in the past, from George H.W. Bush to Barack Obama, when the president tried to impose anything on Israel, they were chastised by the significantly pro-Israel Congress. If Trump is able to sideline Congress, he would be able to put more pressure on Israel to prevent any evictions from the West Bank.

Annexation might be the objective of this messianic Israeli government that is blinded by ideology. However, its members should be careful what they wish for. Trump might agree to it and, if he does so, it might not be exactly how Netanyahu imagined it.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.