Saudi Arabia approves FY2025 budget, forecasts $27bn deficit amid expansionary spending

Update  Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chairs the weekly Cabinet session on Tuesday during which he approved the Kingdom’s budget for 2025. SPA
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chairs the weekly Cabinet session on Tuesday during which he approved the Kingdom’s budget for 2025. SPA
Short Url
Updated 26 November 2024
Follow

Saudi Arabia approves FY2025 budget, forecasts $27bn deficit amid expansionary spending

Saudi Arabia approves FY2025 budget, forecasts $27bn deficit amid expansionary spending

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia on Tuesday approved the state budget for fiscal year 2025 with revenues projected at SR1.18 trillion ($315.73 billion) and expenditure at SR1.28 trillion, leading to a deficit of SR101 billion.

The Finance Ministry forecasted Saudi Arabia’s Real GDP growth at 4.6 percent in 2025, up from the 0.8 percent estimate for 2024. This growth will be driven by a rise in non-oil sector activities, according to the statement.

The figures align with projections from the ministry’s pre-budget statement in September, showing a 4 percent decline in revenues, a 4 percent decline in expenditures, and a 12 percent lower deficit compared to the latest FY 2024 estimates.

The FY2025 forecast are based on a baseline scenario, which represents a middle ground between higher and lower revenue projections, taking into account potential changes in economic activity and global petroleum market conditions.

The ministry projects the deficit to remain at similar levels in the medium term, with SR130 billion in 2026 and SR140 billion in 2027, driven by the government’s strategic expansionary spending policies aimed at fostering economic diversification and sustainable growth. Revenues are expected to rise over the next two years, reaching around SR1.3 trillion by 2027.

The Kingdom’s total debt is projected to reach SR1.3 trillion in 2025, equivalent to 29.9 percent of GDP, reflecting a sustainable level to meet financing needs.

Revised projections for Saudi Arabia’s 2024 budget indicate a deficit of SR115 billion, with total debt expected to reach SR1.2 trillion, or 29.3 percent of GDP.

The fiscal year 2025 budget prioritizes maintaining essential services for citizens and residents, while accelerating spending on key projects and sectors.

It focuses on preserving fiscal stability and achieving long-term sustainability by managing government reserves and maintaining sustainable public debt levels, ensuring the Kingdom’s resilience against unforeseen economic shocks.

In a statement following the weekly Cabinet session, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman emphasized the government’s ongoing efforts to strengthen the Kingdom’s economic base. “We will continue to work on expanding the economic base and enhancing the Kingdom’s financial position,” he stated.

He also highlighted the pivotal role of Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth funds—the Public Investment Fund and the National Development Fund—in driving economic stability and achieving Vision 2030 objectives. “These funds are essential to diversifying the economy and supporting long-term investments,” he said.

Saudi Arabia’s economy is advancing through strategic reforms and robust investment initiatives under Vision 2030, emphasizing diversification and fiscal sustainability.

Key objectives include increasing the private sector’s contribution to GDP, growing the share of foreign investment, and boosting non-oil exports.

The strategy also prioritizes reducing unemployment and accelerating investment growth by enhancing the business environment, providing innovative financing solutions, and attracting regional headquarters of multinational companies to establish a strong presence in the Kingdom.

Key enablers, including the PIF, are driving private sector growth, launching transformative projects, and fostering new industries.

These efforts, outlined in the 2025 budget statement, aim to boost social and economic outcomes while ensuring resilience against global challenges and long-term prosperity.

Breakdown of projected government revenues and expenditures

The ministry projects tax income at SR379 billion in 2025, making up around 32 percent of total revenues. This represents a 4 percent increase compared to the 2024 estimates. The majority of these levies, accounting for 77 percent, come from taxes on goods and services.

According to the ministry, this growth is driven by sustained improvements in economic activity, the ongoing development of tax administration, and enhanced collection processes, all of which have contributed to a boost in total tax revenues.

In terms of sector-specific expenditures, the military sector received the largest allocation at SR272 billion, marking a 5 percent increase compared to the 2024 estimates.

The health and social development sector followed with a 20.25 percent share amounting to SR260 billion.

General items with 14.95 percent share of 2025 budgeted expenditures will be allocated SR192 billion.

Financing the deficit

The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the National Debt Management Center develops an annual borrowing plan aligned with the Kingdom’s medium-term debt strategy, ensuring long-term debt sustainability.

This strategy not only diversifies financing sources, encompassing both domestic and external markets, but also enhances the Kingdom’s standing in global debt markets.

Additionally, the government is expanding its financing channels by tapping into bond and sukuk issuance, loans, and alternative funding models like project and infrastructure financing, as well as collaborating with export credit agencies.

According to the Ministry of Finance, the Kingdom maintains a robust fiscal position, underpinned by substantial financial reserves and manageable public debt levels.

This fiscal strength provides the government with the ability to manage potential economic shocks and meet its financing needs across short, medium, and long-term horizons, while securing favorable borrowing terms from both domestic and international markets.

The crown prince also reaffirmed the government’s commitment to fiscal reforms that have already improved Saudi Arabia’s credit ratings. While the projected deficit for 2025 signals short-term fiscal challenges, the government is focused on ensuring long-term economic sustainability.

He noted that this year’s budget will continue to prioritize economic diversification, with significant emphasis on empowering the private sector and fostering growth in small and medium-sized enterprises.

The crown prince stressed that, despite global economic uncertainties, Saudi Arabia is well-positioned to navigate external challenges and play an increasingly central role in regional and global economic stability.

“Our economy is well-prepared to overcome challenges,” he said.

He also emphasized the importance of long-term financial planning to maintain momentum on Vision 2030 initiatives, underscoring the government's focus on spending efficiency and transparent execution of the budget to meet its strategic goals.

Moody’s upgraded Saudi Arabia’s credit rating to “Aa3” from “A1” on Friday, highlighting the country’s progress in diversifying its economy beyond oil.

The Kingdom is investing heavily in Vision 2030 initiatives, focusing on sectors like tourism, sports, and manufacturing, while also attracting foreign investment.

Despite lower oil prices and reduced production, Saudi Arabia continues to adjust its spending, delaying or scaling back some Vision 2030 projects while prioritizing others.

Moody’s revised the country’s outlook to stable, reflecting uncertainties in global economic conditions and the oil market. In September, S&P also upgraded Saudi Arabia’s outlook to positive due to strong non-oil growth.


Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector growth continues in April as PMI hits 55.6 

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector growth continues in April as PMI hits 55.6 
Updated 10 sec ago
Follow

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector growth continues in April as PMI hits 55.6 

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector growth continues in April as PMI hits 55.6 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil private sector continued to expand in April, with the Riyad Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index reaching 55.6, indicating sustained growth in business activity, a new survey showed.  

According to the latest Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI report compiled by S&P Global, the April reading marked a slight drop from 58.1 in March but remained comfortably above the neutral 50.0 mark that separates expansion from contraction. 

Despite the marginal decline, Saudi Arabia’s PMI for April was still higher than the UAE’s reading of 54.0 and Kuwait’s 54.2. 

Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “As of April 2025, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy continues to assert itself as a pivotal component of the nation’s economic landscape.”  

He added: “The diversification efforts have continued to bear fruit, underscoring the Kingdom’s strategic shift away from oil dependency toward a more balanced and sustainable economic framework.”  

The PMI survey signalled a strong increase in employment levels across the non-oil private sector in April. 

The rate of hiring growth accelerated to its joint-fastest pace in ten and a half years, matching the level recorded in October 2023, as companies expanded their staffing capacity in response to rising sales and increased activity. 

As a result, staff cost inflation surged to a record high in April, reversing the slowdown in cost pressures seen in March. 

“Employment in the non-oil private sector has been particularly vibrant. This surge in employment is a response to rising sales and increased business activity, prompting firms to expand staffing capacities,” said Al-Ghaith.  

The report added that business activity at Saudi Arabia’s non-oil companies increased sharply at the start of the second quarter, with firms commonly reporting an expansion in output due to higher sales, new project approvals, and strong tourist numbers. 

“While output growth remains robust, it is somewhat tempered by global economic uncertainties and competitive pressures affecting client spending. Nonetheless, employment figures continue to climb, indicating a sustained growth trend since last May,” added Al-Ghaith.  

He further noted that Saudi Arabia had successfully managed inflation compared to other nations, highlighting the Kingdom’s effective control of domestic prices amid global uncertainties. 

The latest PMI data also signalled a steep increase in purchasing activity, with the growth rate reaching a three-month high. 

S&P Global noted that expectations among non-oil firms for output in one year’s time increased slightly from March, although overall business optimism remained below the long-run survey average. 

Looking ahead, Al-Ghaith said the Kingdom’s fiscal prospects remain positive for 2025. 

“Forecasts suggest a 3 percent expansion in overall gross domestic product and a 4.5 percent increase in non-oil sectors, continuing the upward trajectory in non-oil activities,” said Al-Ghaith.  

He added: “This growth is crucial for sustaining the economic transformation outlined in Vision 2030, which aims to foster diverse, innovative industries.” 


Oil Updates — crude tumbles as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes, surplus looms

Oil Updates — crude tumbles as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes, surplus looms
Updated 17 min 9 sec ago
Follow

Oil Updates — crude tumbles as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes, surplus looms

Oil Updates — crude tumbles as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes, surplus looms

SINGAPORE: Oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel on Monday as OPEC+ is set to further speed up oil output hikes, spurring concerns about more supply coming into a market clouded by an uncertain demand outlook, according to Reuters.

Brent crude futures dropped $1.34, or 2.19 percent, to $59.95 a barrel by 10:17 a.m. Saudi time while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $56.87 a barrel, down $1.42, or 2.44 percent.

Both contracts touched their lowest since April 9 at Monday’s open after OPEC+ agreed to accelerate oil production hikes for a second consecutive month, raising output in June by 411,000 barrels per day.

The June increase from the eight producers in the OPEC+ group will take the total combined hikes for April, May and June to 960,000 bpd, representing a 44 percent unwinding of the 2.2 million bpd of various cuts agreed on since 2022, according to Reuters calculations.

“The May 3 OPEC+ decision to raise production quotas another 411,000 bpd for June adds to the market expectation that the global supply/demand balance is moving to a surplus,” Tim Evans, founder of Evans on Energy said in a note.

The premium between the front-month Brent contract and that for delivery in six months was 4 cents a barrel, narrowing from 47 cents in the previous session.

However, the spread flipped to a discount, known as a contango structure, of 11 cents a barrel earlier on Monday, for the first time since December 2023, reflecting expectations that the later-dated market is amply supplied or demand may drop.

Barclays and ING have also lowered their Brent crude forecasts following the OPEC+ decision.

Barclays reduced its Brent forecast by $4 to $66 a barrel for 2025 and by $2 to $60 for 2026, while ING expects Brent to average $65 this year, down from $70 previously.

“We now expect OPEC+ to phase out the additional voluntary adjustments by October 2025 but also expect slightly slower US oil output growth,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note.

The net impact of the higher OPEC+ output and lower US output has increased Barclays’ estimate of supply in 2025 by 290,000 bpd for 2025 and 110,000 bpd for 2026, he said.

ING analysts led by Warren Patterson said the global oil balance is expected to move deeper into surplus throughout 2025.

“The oil market has been dealing with significant demand uncertainty amid tariff risks. This change in OPEC+ policy adds to uncertainty on the supply side,” they added.


Trump says he wants a fair trade deal with China 

Trump says he wants a fair trade deal with China 
Updated 23 min 59 sec ago
Follow

Trump says he wants a fair trade deal with China 

Trump says he wants a fair trade deal with China 

ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE: US President Donald Trump on Sunday said the US was meeting with many countries, including China, on trade deals, and his main priority with China was to secure a fair trade deal. 

Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he had no plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, but US officials were speaking with Chinese officials about a variety of different things. 

Asked if any trade agreements would be announced this week, Trump said that could “very well be” but gave no details. 

Trump’s top officials have engaged in a flurry of meetings with trading partners since the president on April 2 imposed a 10 percent tariff on most countries, along with higher tariff rates for many trading partners that were then suspended for 90 days. 

He has also imposed 25 percent tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum, 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 145 percent tariffs on China. 

He suggested that he did not expect to reach an agreement with some countries, but could instead be “setting a certain tariff” for those trading partners in the next two to three weeks. It was not immediately clear if he was referring to the reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2, which are due to kick in on July 8 after a 90-day pause. 

Trump repeated his claim that China had been “ripping us for many years” on global trade, adding that former President Richard Nixon’s move to reach out and establish relations with China was “the worst thing” he ever did. 

Trump sounded more upbeat about China and the prospects for reaching an agreement in an interview with NBC News that was taped on Friday and broadcast on Sunday. 

In the interview, he acknowledged that he had been “very tough with China,” essentially cutting off trade between the world’s top two economies, but said Beijing now wanted to reach an agreement. 

“We’ve gone cold turkey,” he said. “That means we’re not losing a trillion dollars ... because we’re not doing business with them right now. And they want to make a deal. They want to make a deal very badly. We’ll see how that all turns out, but it’s got to be a fair deal.” 


Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 11,411 

Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 11,411 
Updated 04 May 2025
Follow

Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 11,411 

Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 11,411 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index slipped on Sunday, losing 132.17 points, or 1.14 percent, to close at 11,411.50. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR3.5 billion ($944.3 million), as 41 stocks advanced and 198 retreated.    

Similarly, the Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu lost 116.45 points, or 0.41 percent, to close at 28,013.32. This comes as 30 of the listed stocks advanced while 39 retreated.    

The MSCI Tadawul Index lost 20.74 points, or 1.41 percent, to close at 1,451.17.     

The best-performing stock of the day was Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Co., whose share price surged 2.77 percent to SR25.95.   

Other top performers included National Industrialization Co., which saw its share price rise 2.26 percent to SR9.49, and Arabian Contracting Services Co., whose share price increased 1.69 percent to SR132.00. 

Zahrat Al Waha for Trading Co. recorded the most significant drop, falling 7.05 percent to SR27.70. 

Saudi Automotive Services Co. saw its stock prices fall 5.67 percent to SR61.50. 

Emaar The Economic City also saw its stock prices decline 4.50 percent to SR14.00. 

On the announcements front, Dar Alarkan Real Estate Development Co. reported its interim financial results for the period ending March 31. 

According to a Tadawul statement, the company posted a net profit of SR209.34 million in the first quarter of 2025, marking a 36.2 percent increase compared to the same quarter in 2024.  

The rise in net income was primarily driven by higher property sales. Increased lease revenues, lower finance costs, and greater non-operating income from Islamic Murabaha deposits also contributed to the gains, though these were partially offset by higher operating expenses and reduced earnings from associates. 

Dar Alarkan Real Estate Development Co. ended the session at SR21.04, down 1.05 percent. 

Saudi Aramco Base Oil Co. – Luberef has announced its interim financial results for the first quarter of 2025. A bourse filing showed the company recorded a net profit of SR221.5 million for the period ending March 31, reflecting a 7.3 percent decline compared to the same quarter last year. The drop in earnings was mainly due to lower by-product crack margins, despite an increase in base oil crack margins. 

Luberef’s shares closed the session at SR98.70, down 0.20 percent. 

Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group has announced its interim financial results for the period ending March 31. According to a Tadawul statement, the firm posted a net profit of SR557.01 million in the first quarter of 2025, marking a 1.09 percent increase compared to the same quarter in 2024. The growth was primarily driven by higher revenue, although fixed operating costs from recent strategic expansions have temporarily weighed on profit margins. These expansions are still ramping up and are expected to gradually reach full operational efficiency. 

The company’s shares closed at SR289.00, down 2.15 percent. 

The National Agricultural Development Co. reported its consolidated financial results for the first quarter of 2025, posting a net profit of SR103.42 million for the period ending March 31 — a 2.06 percent rise compared to the year-earlier period.  

The increase was supported by higher revenue, reduced general and administrative expenses, stronger operating profit, and increased treasury income. These gains were partially offset by higher cost of sales, increased impairment losses on trade and other receivables, and a decline in finance costs. 

NADEC shares ended the session at SR22.20, down 1.54 percent. 

Saudi Basic Industries Corp. announced a net loss of SR1.21 billion for the first quarter of 2025, compared to a net profit of SR250 million in the same period last year. The loss was primarily due to a SR1.05 billion decline in gross profit, driven by higher feedstock prices and increased operating expenses. These included non-recurring costs of SR1.07 billion linked to a strategic restructuring initiative aimed at improving long-term performance and reducing costs. 

SABIC shares closed at SR60.70, down 2.77 percent. 


Jeddah unveils 29 real estate projects across industrial, residential, retail sectors

Jeddah unveils 29 real estate projects across industrial, residential, retail sectors
Updated 04 May 2025
Follow

Jeddah unveils 29 real estate projects across industrial, residential, retail sectors

Jeddah unveils 29 real estate projects across industrial, residential, retail sectors

RIYADH: Jeddah Municipality has announced 29 new investment opportunities across more than 1.4 million sq. meters, targeting sectors such as commercial, industrial, residential, and recreation. 

Jeddah’s investment package includes 13 commercial opportunities featuring developing and operating retail shops and commercial complexes across various districts. The initiatives include the development of an integrated container city spanning 846,684 sq. meters and a second container park at 429,223 sq. meters.  

This latest undertaking also follows a similar wave of investment opportunities recently launched in Riyadh, underscoring a nationwide push to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy and enhance urban livability.  

Jeddah’s additional projects feature a 145,472-sq.-meter barley milling and packaging facility, eight worker residential compounds, and eight public parks equipped with kindergartens and retail outlets.  

A food truck zone under the municipal incubator program in South Obhur has also been introduced. In the education sector, a health college project has been announced.   

The strategically distributed initiatives aim to meet neighborhood needs while ensuring synergy between activities.   

The municipality has invited investors to submit proposals through the Furas Saudi investment portal. It noted that the bid submissions will be accepted from May 1 until July 8, as per the scheduled timeline. The Furas portal streamlines investor access, reflecting a unified approach to municipal investments.  

This undertaking underscores Jeddah’s commitment to economic growth and urban development in alignment with national objectives. 

Riyadh’s 2025 investment portfolio — spanning commercial, industrial, and leisure projects — mirrors the Kingdom’s strategic focus on private-sector-driven development under Vision 2030. 

In March, the Riyadh Municipality unveiled 20 new investment prospects across 175,000 sq. meters, including mixed-use spaces, retail hubs, and industrial zones, with contracts ranging from five to 25 years.  

Key districts like Jarir, Al-Rawdah, and Al-Qadisiyah are prioritized to ensure balanced growth. Complementing these efforts, the city has expanded its green infrastructure, adding 87 parks since 2022 to reach over 745,000 sq. meters of green space — transforming them into multifunctional community venues. 

These parallel initiatives highlight Saudi cities’ commitment to sustainable urbanization, economic diversification, and elevated quality of life, cementing the Kingdom’s position as a regional leader in transformative urban development.