Lebanon-Syria refugee crisis risks destabilizing the region

Israel’s ongoing war on Lebanon has caused an unprecedented wave of displacement, with thousands of Lebanese and Syrians fleeing across the border to Syria to escape the escalating violence. This mass exodus represents a new humanitarian crisis, with more than 276,000 people, primarily women and children, forced to cross into Syria under extremely challenging circumstances. The displaced face a lack of essentials — such as water, food and shelter — at border and reception areas, revealing a severe shortfall in resources to address the needs of this vulnerable population.

This humanitarian crisis should not be underestimated or overlooked. The situation extends far beyond a simple refugee movement; it could become a multifaceted disaster affecting the entire region. As global powers struggle to broker a peace deal or offer substantial aid, the toll of inaction grows.

“We can no longer view the situation in the Middle East as a series of isolated conflicts and displacement crises. Political failure risks destabilizing an entire region and condemning millions to catastrophe. Global diplomacy must move beyond platitudes and unkept commitments,” said Angelita Caredda, the Norwegian Refugee Council’s Middle East and North Africa regional director. Her words capture the urgency needed from international leaders to prevent an escalation of this crisis.

This issue is compounded by Syria’s limited capacity to manage an influx of refugees. Economically, the country is already under immense strain due to 13 years of internal conflict that have decimated its economy, reduced national income and left millions impoverished. The nation’s struggling economy cannot feasibly absorb this influx of displaced people from Lebanon, adding a new layer to the crisis.

As global powers struggle to broker a peace deal or offer substantial aid, the toll of inaction grows

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Refugees require jobs, housing and economic support, all of which are in short supply in Syria due to years of conflict and the country’s own humanitarian challenges. This economic strain ultimately impacts both the host country and the displaced individuals, who face higher costs and limited opportunities for survival.

Syria’s infrastructure is similarly unprepared to handle this influx. With hospitals, schools and housing already in disrepair, Syria lacks the essential facilities to support both its citizens and the incoming refugee population.

Years of war have severely damaged basic services like healthcare, education and transportation, creating barriers for those in need. The Norwegian Refugee Council has reported that the situation is dire: basic resources are unavailable, food prices have surged and affordable housing is scarce. In this environment, even the most resilient refugees will struggle to rebuild their lives.

In some cases, refugee populations can benefit host economies through contributions to the workforce and demand for goods and services. However, these benefits are only possible when there is sufficient infrastructure and basic resources to support the additional population. In Syria’s case, where even the foundational elements of public services are severely depleted, the refugee influx presents a daunting challenge rather than an economic opportunity. For Syria to experience any economic benefits from hosting refugees, substantial investments in infrastructure and humanitarian support are essential.

This crisis within a crisis becomes even more complex considering Syria’s prolonged suffering. After 13 years of conflict, it does not seem to be in a position to handle the arrival of a new wave of displaced families. The situation for Syrian refugees has been dire for more than a decade, with humanitarian aid stretched thin and communities exhausted from years of instability. The thousands of families crossing into Syria from Lebanon now face challenges with no immediate or sustainable support in sight.

“Syria is already on its knees after 13 years of conflict. The mass displacement from Lebanon comes at a time when the aid response already cannot keep pace with existing needs. Thousands of families crossing into Syria will struggle to find a safe place to stay or the basics their children need. This is a crisis within multiple crises,” Caredda noted, underscoring the heavy burden on Syrians.

The children crossing into Syria alone or with their families are at risk of trauma, malnutrition and neglect

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

More fundamentally, refugees need more than mere survival — they need access to healthcare, education and protection, especially children, who are often left vulnerable. The children crossing into Syria alone or with their families are at risk of trauma, malnutrition and neglect. Basic provisions, including water, food, shelter and mental health support, are vital for their survival and well-being. Mental health services, particularly for children who have experienced the horrors of war, are critical to help them cope and adapt. In the absence of these fundamental necessities, the crisis will continue to spiral, affecting generations.

As a result, the international community must urgently address this humanitarian catastrophe. Three essential actions must be taken to prevent further suffering and instability. First, global leaders need to secure and create a pathway toward peace. Diplomatic efforts must shift from empty promises to concrete actions that prioritize stability and security in the region.

Second, humanitarian aid must be significantly increased, focusing on essential services and infrastructure for refugees. The €5 million ($5.2 million) allocated by the EU last week is a positive step, but much more funding and resources are required to meet the needs of the displaced. Third, support can be provided to strengthen Syria’s ability to host refugees. The international community should focus not only on immediate relief but also on building long-term resilience in host regions.

In a nutshell, the emerging refugee crisis between Lebanon and Syria demands immediate and concerted action from the global community. Without substantial intervention, this crisis risks destabilizing the entire region, resulting in untold human suffering. The needs of the displaced cannot wait and the international community has a moral obligation to prevent this crisis from spiraling out of control.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh