This time, Trump’s win is not an oddity — it is the American reality

It is not only Donald Trump’s election victory that has sent shockwaves across the US and many parts of the world, but also its decisiveness, which defied all forecasts of a close race. If Trump’s first victory in 2016 felt like a fluke, benefiting from a combination of him being a political novice but with star qualities as a multimillionaire businessman and a well-known reality TV presenter, this time he was elected, and by a big margin, for who he is.

Make no mistake, the margin of Trump’s victory and the Republicans’ control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate should not conceal the depth of the divisions within American society. This is a feature that will dominate the US for the foreseeable future. And for a stunned Democratic Party, there is an uphill battle, first to come to terms with defeat, but more significantly to reconnect with those who are its natural electorate yet have been swayed by Trump.

A quick glimpse of the distribution of votes across the US shows that most of this vast territory has been painted red, emphasizing that the party representing leftist-liberal progressive ideas and values has lost the working class, who should be its backbone. These are mainly white men who are angry at seeing their jobs disappearing abroad and who feel marginalized. Trump is appealing to them. Trump is not a Republican in the traditional sense and not even strictly a politician.

Democrats cannot exonerate themselves from having no answer to Trump. It became apparent that the economy played a significant role in voters’ preferences and the increase in the cost of living over the last four years has cost them dearly. Anyone who visits a grocery store in the US will be astonished by how expensive fresh produce is in comparison to most other countries of similar economic development.

A quick glimpse of the distribution of votes across the US shows that most of this vast territory has been painted red

Yossi Mekelberg

Raw figures about employment or economic growth matter very little in many parts of the country when earnings do not allow a decent standard of living and when the younger generations do not enjoy a similar degree of prosperity to that enjoyed by their parents. It was those who have a job — who are sometimes forced to take two or three jobs and who feel stuck in survival mode with no way out — that painted much of the US red last week. Whenever this mood prevails, it is usually those in power who are punished by the voters and Kamala Harris is the vice president.

It was not only the economy that decided last week’s election, but immigration too. The debate over this divisive issue has been hijacked by the populist right and, interestingly, even Latinos voted for Trump in big numbers. There is an interesting phenomenon operating here: those who are legal migrants begrudge the undocumented ones, whom they perceive as skipping the hard work they had to do to earn their status. Moreover, they perceive illegal migration from Latin America as the main reason they are disparaged by others in US society and face a more difficult path to social acceptance. Yet the Biden administration and Harris in particular, who was in charge of securing the borders, did very little to stop illegal migration.

Trump’s appeal to just over half of the American people is a mystery to the rest of the nation and to many around the world. However, he rides his status with pride and has appealed to enough voters.

For the Democrats, this should be the beginning of a period of soul-searching: how do they reconnect with their electoral and ideological roots? If their position on the economy and migration put them in an inferior position, their inability to bring an end to the war in Gaza also cost them votes in certain parts of the country.

The Democrats’ inability to bring an end to the war in Gaza also cost them votes in certain parts of the country

Yossi Mekelberg

However, it was their pushing too hard and too fast for some aspects of their progressive agenda that made some voters uncomfortable and left them feeling that an elite was trying to force upon them changes that clashed with their traditional values. This is not to suggest that these progressive ideas are wrong as such, the opposite is often the case, but they cannot be enforced from the top down and by patronizing those who object to them. Instead, they should engage with people and allay their fears.

What’s more, it should not be forgotten that, while Trump won the Republican primaries easily and had months to build his campaign, Harris won her party’s nomination almost by default when it became apparent that President Joe Biden was not fit to run for another term. Going through the grinding process of the primaries gains the winner credibility, legitimacy, better engagement with the public and the momentum for a presidential campaign. But the result of last Tuesday’s election made it clear that Harris had too little time to lift the campaign and build trust, as well as being too closely associated with the Biden administration as his second in command.

For the second time in eight years, we are once more entering the territory of the unknown and the unpredictable. Trump won this election fairly and squarely and there will not be a repeat of the ugly scenes of Jan. 6, 2021, but an orderly and civilized transition of power, as we should expect. Nevertheless, there will be many Americans, along with many in the international community, who will be deeply skeptical.

• Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg