How Trump might deal with the Gaza and Lebanon wars

When Donald Trump won his first presidency, it came as a surprise. We knew very little about him — his personality, ideas or leadership style. In a closed seminar, one of his close associates said: “His strength is also his flaw; he has a strong personality, so beware of angering him — he might just throw you under the bus.” It turned out he was not wrong.

This new version of Trump appears to be different from the first. He seems less aggressive, more willing to listen, and he seems to have a broader understanding of political issues.

We are cautiously optimistic, given his immense popularity at home. This domestic support gives him a strong foundation for both internal and external influence. He won every battle of his campaign and his opponents have laid down their arms, recognizing his victory. We know his abilities from his previous presidency — he has the courage and energy to bring significant change. Like any president entering a second term, he will aim to make his mark in the history books.

It may be overly hopeful to see Trump as the man who will end wars and conflicts, or even say he can “save the planet.” However, he has promised to work toward these goals.

Currently, there is the Ukraine war, conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, the question of a Palestinian state, tensions with Iran, the Houthis’ presence at the entrance to the Red Sea, the end of the US’ military presence in Iraq and Syria, North Korea’s threats to US allies and, perhaps the most challenging issue, strained relations with China, both politically and militarily, in regions like the Philippines and Taiwan.

Like any president entering a second term, he will aim to make his mark in the history books

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed

Trump has often spoken about his ability to leverage his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Europe and Russia are both bogged down in this conflict; after nearly two years, Russia has not been able to take over Ukraine, nor have the Ukrainians succeeded in driving out Russian forces. A military resolution seems out of reach.

However, finding a solution in Ukraine might be easier than addressing the complex and overlapping conflicts in the Middle East. Can Trump navigate this regional landscape, where previous presidents like Joe Biden, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan saw their efforts falter?

Reports suggest that Trump has already begun unofficial and unpublicized efforts to mediate an end to the hostilities in Gaza and Lebanon. This implies that the combatants may continue fighting until after Jan. 20, when Trump officially enters the White House and might announce the first peace deal.

Until then, over the next two months, Trump will leave Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to continue military operations to weaken Hamas and Hezbollah. Once in office, Trump could press all three sides to negotiate, with each making concessions: Hamas could release hostages, Israel might accept Palestinian Authority leadership in Gaza and the Lebanese army would take control of the south, disarming Hezbollah.

Trump supports Israel’s demand to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding its military capability. This would make for a limited agreement, but the negotiators representing Hezbollah would have little choice. Without an agreement, Israel might expand operations in southern Lebanon, escalating its military actions, and Lebanon might eventually have to accept the terms it currently rejects.

If an agreement is reached, it would be a positive step, as it would bring an end to the longest-running conflict with Israel in the region’s history.

If Trump can oversee such a trilateral agreement in January, as expected, it would set the stage for the bigger challenge: seeking a potential deal with Iran.

• Abdulrahman Al-Rashed is a Saudi journalist and intellectual. He is the former general manager of Al-Arabiya news channel and former editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat, where this article was originally published. X: @aalrashed