Dramatic thaw at Sino-Indian border heralds improved relations

On Oct. 31, the day of Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights, Indian and Chinese troops exchanged sweets along the disputed border, just a day after the two countries had successfully completed military disengagements at two points in Ladakh, the theater of a bitter standoff over the last four years.

Ten days before Diwali, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri had announced that India and China had reached “an agreement on patrolling arrangements along the Line of Actual Control … leading to disengagement and resolution of issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020.”

He was referring to the movement of Chinese troops, in April and May 2020, into areas normally patrolled by Indian soldiers, thus significantly changing the status quo at the border that had prevailed for several years. Indian security forces lost access to several traditional “patrolling points,” with commentators viewing these incursions as part of a strategy of “salami slicing.”

The confrontation was exacerbated by both sides increasing their troop strength to about 50,000 and boosting their armed capabilities with massive deployments of weaponry. Bilateral political and economic ties withered away in the miasma of mutual distrust and recrimination.

Two days after the foreign secretary’s statement, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had his first meeting in five years with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia. During their 50-minute conversation, the two leaders emphasized the importance of improving bilateral ties “from a strategic and long-term perspective,” upgrading strategic communications and pursuing cooperation for mutual development. They also agreed that their officials would meet to address the border issue in order to restore peace and tranquility.

Modi and Xi emphasized the importance of improving bilateral ties ‘from a strategic and long-term perspective’

Talmiz Ahmad

The latest agreement provides for Chinese and Indian troops pulling back from occupied areas at Depsang Plains and Demchok and reverting to their pre-May 2020 positions. Following the disengagement of troops, both sides have agreed on patrolling by their soldiers in terms of the size of the patrols, dates and norms to avoid clashes.

This agreement comes after earlier disengagement agreements between India and China on five disputed areas, which were finalized between February 2021 and September 2022. These had followed a military encounter between the two sides in June 2020 in which 20 Indian soldiers, including a colonel, were killed, along with some Chinese casualties. These earlier agreements provided that, after the disengagement of troops on both sides, the vacated spaces would become “buffer zones” where no patrolling by either side would take place to avoid direct military confrontations.

The latest agreement relating to the Depsang Plains and Demchok required the dismantling by both sides of watch towers, bunkers and military camps and the withdrawal of all military personnel and equipment to rear positions within their side of the Line of Actual Control. Local commanders were connected by a hotline and also met each other once or twice a day. The implementation of the agreement went like clockwork: it was completed by the scheduled date of Oct. 30 and was celebrated the next day with sweets.

With disengagement now complete, the stage is set for the next two steps to achieve full normalization at the border — the de-escalation of troops, such as their relocation to semipermanent camps about 50 km to 100 km from the border; and de-induction, i.e., the withdrawal of additional troops brought by the two countries to the border since April 2020. These will become realistic propositions as the level of mutual trust improves. Separately, special representatives from both sides will revive discussions on the border question.

Mutual distrust is now deeply embedded in the psyche of the two Asian neighbors. Not surprisingly, it has influenced the response of several commentators in India to the latest agreement. They have pointed out that the disengagement agreements, taken together, have not restored the situation as it prevailed in 2020: at least five of the theaters have “buffer zones,” which are effectively no-go areas for Indian troops, even though they had previously patrolled them.

With disengagement now complete, the stage is set for the next two steps to achieve full normalization at the border

Talmiz Ahmad

Others believe that, given China’s aggressive approach in the East Pacific, particularly the South China Sea, and its expanding footprint in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, it poses a long-term security threat to India, regardless of what happens at the border. They also believe that China’s recent accommodations are merely short-term and tactical, brought on only by concerns relating to increasing political and economic challenges from the US.

These criticisms are misplaced. The present thaw in Sino-Indian ties marks a welcome change in the state of bilateral relations, opening opportunities for high-level interactions, easing tensions at the border and increasing economic ties, particularly in the manufacturing and technology domains. The Economic Survey of India for 2023-24 had recommended a fresh opening up to Chinese investments and setting up of Chinese manufacturing units in India.

Geopolitically, Sino-Indian engagement provides a welcome balance to India’s expanding ties with the US, thus broadening its strategic options while affirming its commitment to strategic autonomy. These advantages are not just one-sided — China also benefits from improved ties with India, as it promotes the shaping of a multipolar order and amplifies the voice of the Global South, to which both are committed.

As neighbors in a world in churn, India and China will see opportunities for competition and cooperation. It is the responsibility of the two countries’ leaders and diplomats to ensure that the rough edges of competition are smoothened, while the prospects of cooperation are strengthened. The latest agreement provides the way forward.

• Talmiz Ahmad is a former Indian diplomat.