Myanmar’s youth exodus weakening the military regime

In Myanmar today, a crisis of unprecedented scale is underway, and it is not only about military oppression, forced conscription or human rights abuses — it is about a mass exodus of young people who see no future in their homeland.

Driven by fear, a lack of opportunity and deepening poverty, Myanmar’s youth are fleeing across the borders into Thailand and Cambodia in staggering numbers. This drain of talent, resources and labor is eroding Myanmar’s societal and economic stability, forcing the military to conscript members of ethnic minorities, including Rohingya, in a desperate bid to fill the ranks in its dwindling army. While the junta may see this as a temporary fix, the longer-term impact could prove disastrous to its survival.

Young people have always been at the heart of any country’s labor force. They fuel economic growth, fill workplaces and drive societal progress. But in Myanmar, the opposite is happening; young people are leaving because they have no choice.

Since the February 2021 coup, Myanmar’s economy has spiraled downward, with international sanctions, severe inflation and a plummeting currency. Employment opportunities have dwindled as businesses shut down or relocate. According to recent estimates, more than 2 million people have been displaced internally and thousands of young people have risked their lives to escape to neighboring Thailand and Cambodia. The International Labour Organization reported that Myanmar’s labor force shrank by more than 8 percent in the first 12 months after the coup, a staggering blow that reflects not only lost workers but also the loss of a generation’s potential.

One immediate consequence of this brain drain is the Myanmar military’s increasingly coercive response

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

One immediate consequence of this brain drain is the Myanmar military’s increasingly coercive response. Struggling with worker shortages, the junta has resorted to the forced conscription of Rohingya and other minorities — groups already marginalized, oppressed and routinely subjected to discrimination. The military’s desperation is underscored by its recruitment of individuals it has historically oppressed.

Recent reports from rights organizations reveal an uptick in forced conscription from Rakhine State and other minority regions. Rohingya men, in particular, have been targeted, often with little regard for age, health or even willingness to serve. This strategy might shore up numbers for now, but it is a dangerous game, as it only deepens ethnic divisions and further alienates communities already resistant to the junta’s rule.

The exodus and forced conscription are also weakening Myanmar’s health, education and skilled labor sectors. With doctors, teachers, engineers and tech professionals leaving in droves, the already fragile infrastructure is deteriorating rapidly. Myanmar, once a Southeast Asian leader in terms of literacy and vocational skills, is experiencing a profound backslide. Hospitals and clinics lack staff, with many healthcare professionals now working in Thailand as migrant laborers, where they are often underpaid and overworked. Schools across Myanmar, especially in rural areas, have closed or are functioning at minimal capacity, leaving millions of children without education. The long-term effect is a country deprived of professionals essential for rebuilding the economy and society.

But beyond the economic and social fallout, the brain drain is profoundly political. Young people are fleeing not only because of economic hardship but because of a lack of hope and a rejection of military rule. These are the same people who, in 2020, helped elect the National League for Democracy with overwhelming support, only to see their democratic dreams crushed by the military. Every young person who leaves Myanmar represents a vote of no confidence in the junta, a rejection of its legitimacy and a signal that they see no role for themselves in the regime’s authoritarian vision. By depriving the country of its youth, the junta is undercutting its own legitimacy and future.

Young people are fleeing not only because of economic hardship but because of a lack of hope

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Furthermore, the flight of Myanmar’s youth to neighboring countries is straining regional relations. Thailand and Cambodia, already facing domestic issues related to unemployment and economic instability, are now host to tens of thousands of Myanmar refugees. This surge creates logistical, social and financial burdens on their respective governments. It also places pressure on these nations to take political stances on Myanmar’s internal affairs, as the humanitarian crisis increasingly spills across borders. And yet, Thailand and Cambodia have largely refrained from taking strong stances, reluctant to antagonize the Myanmar junta with which they share economic ties and complex political dynamics. However, the longer this exodus continues, the harder it will be for these countries to remain neutral.

In the longer term, the exodus and forced conscription highlight the growing unsustainability of Myanmar’s military regime. Dictatorships are notoriously bad at managing complex modern economies or fostering an environment where skilled professionals can thrive. Myanmar is no exception. By driving out its young people, Myanmar is losing the very human capital it needs to survive, let alone rebuild. And with each new conscripted soldier, the junta’s reliance on force over governance grows clearer — as does its fundamental weakness.

The international community must recognize that the exodus of Myanmar’s youth is not just a symptom but an indictment of the junta’s failed governance. Countries like Thailand and Cambodia, burdened with the influx, must engage more directly with international bodies to coordinate a humanitarian response and hold Myanmar’s rulers accountable. For Myanmar’s future to be secured, pressure must be brought to bear on the military regime to restore democracy, protect human rights and stop the forced conscription of its most vulnerable citizens. Only then can Myanmar begin to reclaim its future, one in which its young people can finally see a place for themselves in their homeland.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim