How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result

Special How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result
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Voters fill out their ballot at the Fashion institute of Technology during first day of early voting in New York on October 26, 2024. (AFP)
Special How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result
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A voter casts her ballot at an early voting location in Columbus, Georgia on October 29, 2024 ahead of the general election. (Anadolu via Getty Images)
Special How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result
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Voters apply for a mail-in ballot at the Lehigh County elections office in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AP)
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Updated 31 October 2024
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How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result

How the US election works, from how ballots are counted to when we will know the result
  • With its electoral college system, staggered results, and early voting options, understanding how the election functions can be daunting
  • To cut through the jargon and complexities of the democratic process, here is a breakdown of all you need to know to survive election day

LONDON: Early voting has already begun in the US to decide who will form the next administration in what many believe is among the most consequential — and hotly contested — elections in a generation.

Almost every poll published over the past week has placed the two main contenders, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, neck and neck in the race for the White House.

Analysts predict the result could come down to just a handful of votes. The outcome could have huge implications not only for domestic policy, but also for the international order.

With extensive media coverage, election jargon, and an overwhelming volume of information, understanding the process can feel daunting. Here is a breakdown of all you need to know to survive election day.

The polls

Polls are often excellent indicators of general voter sentiment. However, recent US elections have shown they are far from foolproof.

In 2016, almost every major polling firm predicted Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump. However, pollsters failed to capture Trump’s unexpected support, leading to a surprise victory that confounded many.

In 2020, polls correctly tipped Joe Biden as the likely winner, but underestimated the actual vote share Trump would receive. In the week before the election, polls gave Biden a seven-point lead, yet Trump managed to close the gap by several points on Election Day.

With most polls indicating a close race on Tuesday, many are wondering whether the pollsters have got it right this time around.

Electoral college

About 244 million Americans are eligible to vote in this year’s election. If the turnout matches 2020’s record 67 percent, about 162 million ballots will be cast across 50 states.




People cast their ballots during early in-person voting on Oct. 30, 2024, in Nashville, Tennessee. (AP)

A recent Arab News-YouGov poll indicated that Arab Americans are likely to vote in record numbers, with more than 80 percent of eligible voters saying they intend to participate — potentially swinging the outcome in several key states.

When voters cast their ballots, they do not vote directly for their preferred presidential candidate. Rather, they vote for a slate of “electors” who formally choose the president — a process known as the electoral college system.

Due to the quirks of this system, the candidate with the most votes nationally may not necessarily win the presidency. This was the case with Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Al Gore in 2000, both of whom won the popular vote but lost the election.




Former US Vice President Al Gore (left) won the popular vote in 2000 and so did former US first lady and senator Hilary Clinton in the 2016 election. But both lost the race because their rivals won more electoral votes. (AFP/File photos)l 

The electoral college creates what could be defined as 51 mini elections — one in each state and another for Washington, D.C. In 48 states and D.C., the candidate with the majority vote takes all the electors from that state.

However, Maine and Nebraska have a different system, allocating electors by district, meaning their electoral votes may be split between candidates.

In total, 538 electors are distributed among the states. A candidate must secure at least 270 of these to win the presidency.

In the unlikely case that no candidate has the required 270 electoral college votes, then a contingent election takes place. This means the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the US Congress, votes for the president.

How votes are counted

When the polls close on election day, the count begins. In most cases, in-person votes are counted first, followed by early and mail-in ballots.

Results from smaller or less contested states often come in early, while larger, key battleground states like Pennsylvania or Georgia may take hours — or days — to finalize due to stringent verification steps, including signature checks and ballot preparation for electronic scanning.




Jessica Garofolo (L), administrative services director for Allegheny County, demonstrates how the high-speed ballot scanner for mail-in ballots works during a media tour of the Allegheny County election warehouse in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

States like Florida, where mail-in ballots are processed in advance, may report results relatively quickly. Other states, particularly those with late processing times for absentee ballots, might not finalize their tallies until days later.

State and local poll officials collect, verify, and certify the popular vote in each jurisdiction, following procedures for accuracy before final certification by governors and designated officials.

In response to unprecedented threats in 2020, many polling stations have now installed panic buttons, bulletproof glass and armed security to ensure safety across the more than 90,000 polling sites nationwide.




This combination image shows smoke pouring out of a ballot box on Oct. 28, 2024, in Vancouver, Washington (left) and a damaged ballot drop box displayed at the Multnomah County Elections Division office on Oct. 28, 2024, in Portland, Oregon. (KGW8 via AP/AP)

Mail-in and early votes

Although election day is held on the first Tuesday after Nov. 1, many Americans vote early. Early voting allows citizens to cast ballots in person, while others opt for mail-in ballots.

This year, early and mail-in voting are once again expected to play a crucial role, with millions of ballots already cast. President Biden voted early on Monday in his home state of Delaware.




US President Joe Biden casts his early-voting ballot in the 2024 general election in New Castle, Delaware, on October 28, 2024. (AFP)

States vary in how they handle mail-in ballots, with some processing them before election day and others waiting until polls close. In closely contested states, the volume of mail-in ballots could be a decisive factor, potentially delaying results.

Voting by mail has grown in popularity. According to ABC News, as of Tuesday, more than 25.6 million Americans have already returned mail ballots, and more than 65 million — including military personnel serving overseas — have requested absentee ballots.

In 2020, a comparable number voted by mail, though the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased reliance on this option.




A voter casts her ballot during the early voting period on October 29, 2024 in the city of Dearborn in  Michigan state. (Getty Images via AFP)

Despite its growing popularity, the mail-in voting system has faced accusations of fraud. During the last election, authorities and the postal service were strained by millions of extra ballots.

At the time, Trump said that mail-in voting was a “disaster” and “a whole big scam,” claiming that the Democrats had exploited the system to “steal” the election. The Democrats claim those allegations contributed to the Capitol Hill attack of Jan. 6, 2021.

This election cycle, some states, including Michigan and Nevada, have passed laws permitting early counting of mail-in ballots, which should lead to faster results. However, most states’ absentee voting policies have seen minimal changes, leaving tensions high.

Authorities are closely monitoring the process. In a sign of just how tense the situation has become, officials announced on Tuesday that they were searching for suspects after hundreds of votes deposited in two ballot drop boxes in the Pacific Northwest were destroyed by fire.

When will a winner be declared?

Indiana and Kentucky will be the first states to close their polls at 6 pm ET, followed by seven more states an hour later, including the battleground state of Georgia, which in 2020 voted for Biden. North Carolina, another critical swing state which picked Trump last time around, closes at 7:30 pm ET.




Supporters of US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris cheer during a Get Out the Vote rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

By around 8 p.m. ET, many states will have reported results, most of which are expected to follow traditional patterns. However, early results in solid Republican states like South Carolina could hint at trends in neighboring battlegrounds like Georgia.

By 9 p.m. ET, polls in key swing states such as Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan close, with results trickling in soon after. By midnight ET, most of the nation will have reported, with Hawaii and Alaska closing shortly after, likely providing a clearer picture.

Pennsylvania, which is seen as a bellwether of the overall election outcome, aims to announce its results by early morning on Nov. 6.

The timing of a winner declaration ultimately depends on how close the race is in these key states. If one candidate establishes a clear lead in pivotal swing states early, a winner could be projected by major networks, as Fox News controversially did in 2020, calling Arizona for Biden hours ahead of other broadcasters.




Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump dances as he leaves a campaign rally in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

If the race remains tight in crucial states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, or Michigan — all won by Biden last time around — the results may be delayed, possibly into the next day or later.

In 2020, it took four days to project Biden’s win due to a high volume of mail-in ballots. Experts caution that similarly close results this year could lead to a comparable delay.

Possible controversy

As in previous years, the outcome of the election will likely be contested. Delays in ballot counting, especially from mail-in votes, could fuel disputes in states where margins are tight.




Mail-in ballots are secured inside a cage before election day, as officials host a media tour of the Allegheny County election warehouse in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 30, 2024. (AFP)

Both parties have prepared legal teams to challenge issues surrounding ballot validity, recounts, or other contested results.

Concerns over voter intimidation, misinformation and unsubstantiated allegations of fraud may further stoke tensions, despite the rigorous safeguards put in place.

In its latest assessment, the International Crisis Group noted that while conditions differ from 2020, political divisions remain sharp and risks of unrest remain high, especially if results are contested or take days to finalize.

As the world watches Tuesday’s election closely, there is widespread hope for a fair and peaceful process, marking a fitting conclusion to this tense political season.
 

 


South Korean president indicted as ‘ringleader of an insurrection’

South Korean president indicted as ‘ringleader of an insurrection’
Updated 2 sec ago
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South Korean president indicted as ‘ringleader of an insurrection’

South Korean president indicted as ‘ringleader of an insurrection’
  • Yoon Suk Yeol plunged the country into political chaos with his December 3 bid to suspend civilian rule
  • If the court rules against Yoon, he will lose the presidency and an election will be called within 60 days
SEOUL: South Korean prosecutors indicted impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol Sunday for being the “ringleader of an insurrection” after his abortive declaration of martial law, ordering the suspended leader to remain in detention.
Yoon plunged the country into political chaos with his December 3 bid to suspend civilian rule, a move which lasted just six hours before lawmakers defied armed soliders in parliament to vote it down.
He was impeached soon after, and earlier this month became the first sitting South Korean head of state to be arrested.
That came after a weeks-long hold out at his residence where his elite personal security detail resisted attempts to detain him.
In a statement, prosecutors said they had “indicted Yoon Suk Yeol with detention today on charges of being the ringleader of an insurrection.”
He has been held at the Seoul Detention Center since his arrest, and the formal indictment with detention means he will now be kept behind bars until his trial, which must happen within six months.
The indictment was widely expected after a court twice rejected requests by prosecutors to extend his arrest warrant while their investigation proceeded.
“After a comprehensive review of evidence obtained during investigations (prosecutors) concluded that it was only appropriate to indict the defendant,” they said in a statement.
The need to keep Yoon behind bars was justified by a “continued risk of evidence destruction,” they said.
The specific charge — being the ringleader of an insurrection — is not covered by presidential immunity, they added.
The opposition hailed the indictment.
“We need to hold not only those who schemed to carry out an illegal insurrection, but also those who instigated it by spreading misinformation,” said lawmaker Han Min-soo.
Without providing evidence, Yoon and his legal team have pointed to purported election fraud and legislative gridlock at the opposition-controlled parliament as justification for his declaration of martial law.
Yoon has vowed to “fight to the end,” earning the support of supporters who have adopted the “stop the steal” rhetoric associated with US President Donald Trump.
“This indictment will provide a sense of relief, reaffirming that the constitutional order is functioning as it should,” said Bae Kang-hoon, co-founder of political think tank Valid.
Yoon also faces a series of Constitutional Court hearings, to decide whether to uphold his impeachment and strip him formally of the presidency.
If the court rules against Yoon, he will lose the presidency and an election will be called within 60 days.

Afghan Taliban supporters rally against ICC arrest warrant requests

Afghan Taliban supporters rally against ICC arrest warrant requests
Updated 26 January 2025
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Afghan Taliban supporters rally against ICC arrest warrant requests

Afghan Taliban supporters rally against ICC arrest warrant requests
  • Some 200 Taliban supporters rallied in central Afghanistan on Sunday against the International Criminal Court chief prosecutor’s request for arrest warrants for two Taliban leaders

GHAZNI: Some 200 Taliban supporters rallied in central Afghanistan on Sunday against the International Criminal Court chief prosecutor’s request for arrest warrants for two Taliban leaders.
The rally followed the announcement by the ICC on Thursday that chief prosecutor Karim Khan was seeking arrest warrants for Taliban Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada and Chief Justice Abdul Hakim Haqqani over the persecution of women.
The Taliban government has imposed a raft of restrictions on women and girls, which the United Nations has described as “gender apartheid,” since sweeping back to power in 2021.
Demonstrators in Ghazni city condemned Khan’s move, chanting slogans that included “Death to America” and “long live the Islamic Emirate” — the Taliban authorities’ name for their government.
“We have gathered here to show the West that their decision is cruel and rejected by Afghans,” said Ghazni resident Noorulhaq Omar.
“It will never be accepted because the Afghan nation will sacrifice their life for their emir,” he said, referring to Akhundzada.
Hamidullah Nisar, Ghazni province’s head of the information and culture department, joined residents at the rally.
“We totally reject what the ICC has said against the leadership of the Islamic Emirate, and we want them to take back their words,” he said.
Most demonstrations have been suppressed in Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover, with the exception of those by the authorities’ supporters.
Afghanistan’s Taliban government dismissed Khan’s arrest warrant requests on Friday as “politically motivated.”
Rights groups and activists have praised the ICC move.


Iran FM arrives in Kabul in first visit after Taliban’s takeover

Iran FM arrives in Kabul in first visit after Taliban’s takeover
Updated 26 January 2025
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Iran FM arrives in Kabul in first visit after Taliban’s takeover

Iran FM arrives in Kabul in first visit after Taliban’s takeover
  • One-day visit is part of an effort to bolster relations between the two countries and ‘pursue mutual interests’
  • Discussions will revolve around border security, strengthening political ties and expanding economic relations

KABUL: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Kabul Sunday on the highest-level visit by an Iranian official to the Afghan capital since the Taliban’s takeover in 2021.
The one-day visit is part of an effort to bolster relations between the two countries and “pursue mutual interests,” according to foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei.
Upon his arrival, Araghchi met with his Afghani counterpart Amir Khan Muttaqi, and he is scheduled to sit down later with the deputy prime minister for economic affairs, Abdul Ghani Baradar, state TV reported.
Discussions will revolve around border security, strengthening political ties and expanding economic relations, it added.
Tensions between Iran and Afghanistan have intensified in recent years over water rights and the construction of dams on the Helmand and Harirud rivers.
Iran shares more than 900 kilometers (560 miles) of border with Afghanistan, and the Islamic republic hosts one of the largest refugee populations in the world, mostly Afghans who fled their country over two decades of war.
The flow of Afghan immigrants has increased since the Taliban took over in August 2021 after US forces withdrew.
In September, local media in Iran announced the building of a wall along more than 10 kilometers of the eastern border with Afghanistan, the main entry point for immigrants.
Officials said at the time that additional methods to fortify the border including barbed wire and water-filled ditches to counter the “smuggling of fuel and goods, especially drugs,” and to prevent “illegal immigration.”
In December, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, said “over six million Afghans have sought refuge in Iran.”
Iran has had an active diplomatic presence in Afghanistan for many years, but it has yet to officially recognize the Taliban government since the takeover.
Several Iranian delegations have visited Afghanistan over the years, including a parliamentary delegation in August 2023 to discuss water rights.


US has not stopped military aid to Ukraine, Zelensky says

US has not stopped military aid to Ukraine, Zelensky says
Updated 26 January 2025
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US has not stopped military aid to Ukraine, Zelensky says

US has not stopped military aid to Ukraine, Zelensky says
  • Trump had previously said Ukraine's President Zelensky should have made a deal with Putin to avoid the conflict
  • But he recently threatened to impose stiff tariffs and sanctions on Russia if an agreement isn’t reached to end the fighting in Ukraine

KYIV: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday the US has not stopped military aid to Ukraine after newly sworn in US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced he would pause foreign aid grants for 90 days.
Zelensky did not clarify whether humanitarian aid had been paused. Ukraine relies on the US for 40 percent of its military needs. “I am focused on military aid; it has not been stopped, thank God,” he said at a press conference with Moldovan President Maia Sandu.
The two leaders met in Kyiv on Saturday to discuss the energy needs of Moldova’s Russian-occupied Transnistria region, which saw its natural gas supplies halted on Jan. 1 due to Ukraine’s decision to stop Russian gas transit. Ukraine has said it can offer coal to the Transnistrian authorities to make up for the shortfall.
The future of US aid to Ukraine remains uncertain as President Donald Trump begins his second term in office. The American leader has repeatedly said he wouldn’t have allowed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to start if he had been in office, although he was president as fighting grew in the east of the country between Kyiv’s forces and separatists aligned with Moscow, ahead of Putin sending in tens of thousands of troops in 2022.
On Thursday, Trump told Fox News that Zelensky should have made a deal with Putin to avoid the conflict. A day earlier, Trump also threatened to impose stiff tariffs and sanctions on Russia if an agreement isn’t reached to end the fighting in Ukraine.
Speaking in Kyiv on Saturday, Zelensky said he had enjoyed “good meetings and conversations with President Trump” and that he believed the US leader would succeed in his desire to end the war.
“This can only be done with Ukraine, and otherwise it simply will not work because Russia does not want to end the war, and Ukraine does,” Zelensky said.
Grinding eastern offensive
With Trump stressing the need to quickly broker a peace deal, both Moscow and Kyiv are seeking battlefield successes to strengthen their negotiating positions ahead of any prospective talks.

Opinion

This section contains relevant reference points, placed in (Opinion field)

For the past year, Russian forces have been waging an intense campaign to punch holes in Ukraine’s defenses in the Donetsk region and weaken Kyiv’s grip on the eastern parts of the country. The sustained and costly offensive has compelled Kyiv to give up a series of towns, villages and hamlets.
Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed Friday that Russian troops had fought their way into the center of the strategically important eastern of Velyka Novosilka, although it was not possible to independently confirm the claim.
Elsewhere, three civilians were killed Saturday in shelling in the Russian-occupied area of Ukraine’s Kherson region, Moscow-installed Gov. Vladimir Saldo said.
He urged the residents of Oleshky, which sits close to the frontline in southern Ukraine, to stay in their homes or in bomb shelters.
Russia also attacked Ukraine with two missiles and 61 Shahed drones overnight Saturday. Ukrainian air defenses shot down both missiles and 46 drones, a statement from the air force said. Another 15 drones failed to reach targets due to Ukrainian countermeasures.
The downed drones caused damage in the Kyiv, Cherkasy and Khmelnytskyi regions, with Ukrainian emergency services saying that five people had to be from a 9-story apartment block in the Ukrainian capital.
Russia also struck Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region with drones causing casualties and damage, local authorities said Saturday.
Drones targeted the city’s Shevchenkivskyi, Kyivskyi and Kholodnohirskyi districts, said Mayor Ihor Terekhov.
Russia used a Molniya drone – an inexpensive weapon that has been developed and recently deployed by Russia – in the Shevchenkivskyi district, sparking a fire. The attacks disrupted the city’s water and electricity supplies, the mayor said.
Terekhov said the number of victims was still being determined, while Kharkiv’s governor, Oleh Syniehubov, said three people, two women and a man, were injured in the strikes.
 


US teacher put on leave after allegedly calling Palestinian child an extremist

US teacher put on leave after allegedly calling Palestinian child an extremist
Updated 26 January 2025
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US teacher put on leave after allegedly calling Palestinian child an extremist

US teacher put on leave after allegedly calling Palestinian child an extremist
  • “I do not negotiate with terrorists,” the teacher reportedly remarked when a Palestinian American student asked for a seat change
  • Recent incidents involving Palestinian American children include an attempt to drown a 3-year-old girl in Texas and the fatal stabbing of a 6-year-old boy in Illinois

WASHINGTON: A public teacher in Pennsylvania was put on leave after allegedly calling a Palestinian American middle school student an extremist, the school district and a Muslim advocacy group said.

Why It’s Important
Human rights advocates say there has been a rise in anti-Muslim, anti-Palestinian and antisemitic hate in the US since the start of Israel’s war in Gaza following an Oct. 7, 2023, attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Key Quotes
The Central Dauphin School District said on Saturday it had learned about the allegations that the teacher made the derogatory comment last week in an after-school program.
“The teacher involved in the alleged incident is on administrative leave pending our investigation,” the district said in a statement, adding it had no tolerance for racist speech.
The Council on American Islamic Relations said the allegation was that the teacher had remarked, “I do not negotiate with terrorists,” when the Palestinian American student asked for a seat change.
The district and CAIR did not name the teacher or the student. CAIR said it was in touch with the child’s parents.

Context
Recent US incidents involving children include the attempted drowning of a 3-year-old Palestinian American girl in Texas and the fatal stabbing of a 6-year-old Palestinian American boy in Illinois.
Other incidents include the stabbing of a Palestinian American man in Texas, the beating of a Muslim man in New York, a violent mob attack on pro-Palestinian protesters in California and the shooting of three Palestinian American students in Vermont.
Incidents raising alarm over antisemitism include threats of violence against Jews at Cornell University that led to a conviction and sentencing, an unsuccessful plot to attack a New York City Jewish center and physical assaults against a Jewish man in Michigan, a rabbi in Maryland and two Jewish students at a Chicago university.