Ground invasion of Lebanon could erase Israel’s gains

As Israel ramps up its ground offensive against Hezbollah along Lebanon’s southern coast, after it had previously sent troops to Lebanese villages in the southeast of the country close to the Israeli border, it is becoming increasingly clear that its air offensive is being supplemented by ground incursions. Tel Aviv insists these are limited in nature despite the deployment of a fourth division, as it claims to want to destroy an already weakened Hezbollah.

Away from the inflammatory rhetoric of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his repeated pledge to keep fighting a “sacred war” to secure Israel, especially the northern areas close to Lebanon, the ultimate plan to destroy Israel’s long-term adversary and linchpin in Iran’s coalition of proxies in the region could backfire.

Israel sending troops into Lebanon, even in a “limited” ground operation, could indirectly resuscitate a gravely wounded Hezbollah. Israel may find itself mired in bloody close combat battles that generally favor guerrilla-style hit-and-run tactics.

Many in Lebanon are of the opinion that what Hezbollah has done since Oct. 8 last year — attacking Israel as a way to support Hamas in Gaza — was not helpful to the Palestinians as it did not stop the Israeli onslaught. Missiles fired from Lebanon over the past 12 months have also not helped Lebanon, despite the attacks being conducted at the request of Hezbollah’s Iranian patron, which conceived and deployed a strategy of besieging Israel by fire from its proxy militant groups operating in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.

Israel sending troops into Lebanon could indirectly resuscitate a gravely wounded Hezbollah

Mohamed Chebaro

One could see how, in order to restore its long-established high threshold of deterrence — a key foundation of Israeli security doctrine since 1948 — the confidence gained by the Israeli military and intelligence establishment after the decapitation of Hezbollah’s leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah, could easily encourage planners into thinking that an opportunity had presented itself to bring strategic change to the region on a major scale.

But history has demonstrated time and again that it is very easy for the most superior of military forces to become embroiled in guerilla-style warfare, especially against groups like Hezbollah, which has been trained, armed and funded by Iran. It would be easy for something to go wrong, such as a few soldiers becoming separated from their units and being captured by Hezbollah, for Israeli troops to fall into an ambush that causes heavy casualties and is filmed and published online, or even for images of burned-out tanks in south Lebanon to go viral on the internet. Such incidents could cause a strategic turnaround and erase the many tactical gains Israel won through its covert, indirect planting of explosives into Hezbollah’s pagers and walkie-talkies. This was followed by the start of its intensified air campaign, which eliminated the head of Hezbollah as well as most of the top- and middle-ranking military leadership of the terrorist group.

Since the Oct. 7 attacks a year ago, along with battling Hamas in Gaza, Israel has focused on securing its northern border with Lebanon with the aim of allowing tens of thousands of displaced Israelis to return home. On Sept. 23, Israel finally launched a wave of strikes against Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon, leaving hundreds dead or injured. Above all, this forced more than a million Lebanese, many of whom are core Hezbollah supporters, to flee their homes in southern and eastern Lebanon, as well as Dahieh in the south of Beirut, the suburb that has for years been a closed Hezbollah area.

In wars, limited, localized and targeted operations do not remain as such. Also, due to incorrect assessments, operational fluidity and other adversities and mistakes that are frequent during conflicts, advantages can be quickly overturned.

Also, one must remember that Israel’s recent tactical successes, though impressive, have failed to deliver the strategic breakthroughs Netanyahu seeks. One aim is to eradicate Hamas and remove all existential threats to Israel’s existence without remedying the core issue for a Palestinian people thriving to fulfill their right to a state and self-determination and independence. The second is the return of the 60,000 displaced Israelis to their homes in the north.

It is feared that Netanyahu has nothing but a forever war to offer, vowing to continue to fight for “as long as the enemy threatens our existence and the peace of the country.”

Due to adversities and mistakes that are frequent during conflicts, advantages can be quickly overturned

Mohamed Chebaro

While this could prove impossible to achieve for any national leader and not just Netanyahu, as de facto wars almost never end on the battlefield but rather at the negotiating table, the talk of some Lebanese officials close to Hezbollah is equally delusional, when they try to allude to Lebanese unity prevailing in the fight against the enemy.

Hezbollah is considered by the UK, the US and much of the rest of the Western world, as well as some Arab countries, as a terrorist organization that has dominated Lebanon’s fate since at least 2006. Israel’s ground offensive to uproot the militia could prove futile and even counterproductive. It might give a new lease of life to a largely broken Hezbollah, while offering nothing to the Lebanese but death and destruction.

Weakened and splintered, Lebanon under Hezbollah’s control has become a failed state politically, with no president, head of government, functioning and funded administration or security apparatus like any normal state. On Hezbollah’s watch, the country’s banking system collapsed, with people losing their deposits and their wealth. I doubt anyone in the country would mourn the end of the group’s grip on power if given the chance to speak freely.

Twelve months since Hamas’ attack on Israel and the region is teetering on the brink of a wider escalation that will engulf the region. Israel and Iran’s wars of choice have so far failed to make Israel more secure, the Palestinians more hopeful or Hezbollah less willing to fight.

Israel under Netanyahu is playing a dangerous game and, in the shifting sands of the Middle East, the tactical upper hand it has gained could quickly evaporate, especially where a ground offensive in Lebanon is concerned. All parties, starting with Iran and Israel, must once again believe that only a diplomatic solution can bring them back from the brink, as the fate of the people in the region is to coexist once the guns are silenced.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.