Al-Qaeda, Daesh keeping their distance from Gaza war

As Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip rages on, notably absent from the conflict are the notorious extremist groups Al-Qaeda and Daesh. These organizations, historically vocal and active in conflicts involving Islamic nations such as Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, have remained unusually silent, particularly in terms of ground operations. This lack of involvement, both physically and through their propaganda outlets, raises questions about their current priorities and capabilities.

To comprehend why these groups are missing from the Gaza scene, one must look back at the ideological and strategic goals that guide them in their global operations. While Palestine has often been used as a rallying cry by such extremist movements, it has never truly occupied center stage in the agenda of either Al-Qaeda or Daesh.

One major reason for the current absence of these groups from the conflict is their weakened state. Both Al-Qaeda and Daesh have been severely undermined in recent years.

Al-Qaeda has always focused its efforts on the US and other Western powers, which it refers to as the “far enemy.” In more recent times, its presence has mainly been within conflicts in regions like Yemen and West Africa, leaving little room to engage in Gaza.

One major reason for the current absence of these groups from the conflict is their weakened state

Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy

The issue of liberating Jerusalem has been part of Al-Qaeda’s rhetoric since its founding in the 1980s, despite the lack of attacks directed against Israel. Osama bin Laden justified this in 2009 by saying that the organization was unable to penetrate Israeli borders due to regional agreements. Its leadership argues that dismantling regimes seen as collaborators with the West is a prerequisite to any meaningful action in Palestine. Their strategy emphasizes broader global objectives, rendering Palestine more of a symbolic cause rather than a tactical priority.

Daesh, meanwhile, has shown little interest in the Palestinian struggle. Emerging from the shadow of Al-Qaeda, the group centered its efforts on establishing a caliphate in Iraq and Syria. However, after the loss of its so-called caliphate, its efforts have been primarily focused on surviving and regrouping in its remaining territories. Its leadership considers Palestinian factions like Hamas to be compromised by their participation in democratic processes and their focus on nationalistic rather than global objectives. This view has led Daesh to disregard the Palestinian question, sometimes even denouncing factions fighting Israel as apostates, thus rendering action in Palestine to be secondary to other fronts.

It is evident that this detachment is in large part strategic. With their resources stretched thin and leadership fragmented, both organizations have opted to focus on consolidating their existing operations rather than risk further losses by engaging in a high-stakes conflict like Gaza.

Engaging Israel directly could expose them to retaliatory strikes, not just from Israel but also from global powers aligned against them, further diminishing their already limited capabilities. This detachment underscores the declining influence of these groups on the broader fundamentalist landscape, as well as their diminishing relevance in conflicts like Gaza, where other actors have taken the lead.

There is also the issue of geographical and logistical challenges. With the increased security presence in countries surrounding Gaza, including Egypt, opportunities for these groups to infiltrate or establish a foothold have diminished. In addition, Israel’s advanced security apparatus poses a significant deterrent, making any meaningful infiltration or attack highly improbable.

Beyond these practical concerns, the question remains: do Al-Qaeda and Daesh even see Israel as a priority? Historically, these groups have focused more on overthrowing Arab regimes they see as complicit in the region’s problems, leaving Israel as a secondary target. Despite the symbolic importance of Jerusalem and other Islamic holy sites, neither group has mounted significant operations against Israeli targets.

They have not taken any concrete steps to support factions like Hamas or to launch attacks on Israel

Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy

While both Al-Qaeda and Daesh have issued statements of support for the Palestinian resistance, particularly after the outbreak of violence on Oct. 7, referred to as the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” their involvement has been limited to rhetoric. They have not taken any concrete steps to support factions like Hamas or to launch attacks on Israel. Their statements have mostly urged sympathizers to take action independently, often promoting so-called lone wolf attacks rather than organized military engagements.

In light of this, it can be observed that Al-Qaeda continues to exploit events to support its propaganda linked to the Palestinian cause, although it has failed to translate this support into direct operations against Israel. In contrast, Daesh is likely to remain focused on other geographical priorities, particularly in Africa, where it seeks to strengthen its presence and leverage regional conditions to its advantage.

In response, Israeli intelligence has been closely monitoring the potential for extremist groups to leverage the conflict. However, so far, these fears have not materialized, thanks in part to Israel’s stringent security measures in areas such as the West Bank.

One key observation is the position of these organizations toward Hamas. Al-Qaeda praised the military arm of Hamas, Al-Qassam Brigades, without mentioning Hamas itself, while Daesh ignored the organization entirely. This stance can be attributed to the ideological and political differences between these organizations and Hamas, particularly regarding political participation and Hamas’ relationship with Iran.

The current events in the region represent a pivotal moment that could have significant effects on these organizations, as well as on regional and international security.

It is expected that the current developments will impact the activities of both Al-Qaeda and Daesh. Al-Qaeda may escalate its attacks against Western targets in the coming period, attempting to regain the momentum it lost compared to Hamas. On the other hand, Daesh is likely to remain distant from the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, focusing instead on its expansion in Africa.

• Dr. Abdellatif El-Menawy has covered conflicts worldwide. X: @ALMenawy