What Israel’s purported invasion of Lebanon means for Hezbollah and its Iranian backers

Analysis What Israel’s purported invasion of Lebanon means for Hezbollah and its Iranian backers
Israel said it had launched a “limited” ground incursion into Lebanon on Monday. (AP)
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Updated 02 October 2024
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What Israel’s purported invasion of Lebanon means for Hezbollah and its Iranian backers

What Israel’s purported invasion of Lebanon means for Hezbollah and its Iranian backers
  • Israel says it has mounted ‘limited, localized, and targeted ground raids’ in southern Lebanon aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure
  • Iran launched a missile attack against Israel on Tuesday night in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah’s Nasrallah and Hamas chief Haniyeh

DUBAI/LONDON: Following the killing of Hezbollah’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in a targeted airstrike on Sept. 27, Israel is reported to have launched what it calls a “limited” ground incursion into Lebanon.

On Tuesday night, Iran fired a wave of ballistic missiles at Israel in a long-expected retaliation for the killing of Nasrallah and the suspected Israeli killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.

Both developments have brought the region yet another step closer to the possibility of all-out war.




Rescuers dig through the rubble of a building, a day after it was hit in an Israeli strike, in Ain El-Delb. (AP)

Lebanon has witnessed its bloodiest month since the end of its civil war in 1990. According to the Ministry of Health, more than 1,000 people have been killed, 90,000 displaced, and up to a million people have fled their homes.

Emboldened by its early successes, Israeli military officials appear determined to press home the advantage.

In a statement, officials described their actions as “limited, localized, and targeted ground raids” in southern Lebanon aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, which they consider a threat to northern Israel.

The military said it was acting on “precise intelligence” targeting Hezbollah positions and infrastructure in southern Lebanon. “These targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel,” it said.

On Tuesday, the Israeli military called on residents in more than 20 areas of southern Lebanon to evacuate.




Mourners carry the bodies of victims killed in an Israeli air strike on the town of Ain Al-Delb. (AFP)

“The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) does not want to harm you, and for your own safety you must evacuate your homes immediately. Anyone who is near Hezbollah members, installations and combat equipment is putting his life in danger,” army spokesman Avichay Adraee said on X.

“You must head immediately to the north of the Al-Awali River,” near the coastal city of Sidon, Adraee added.

However, Hezbollah said that no Israeli troops had crossed over into Lebanon. “All the Zionist claims that (Israeli) occupation forces have entered Lebanon are false claims,” a Hezbollah spokesman said in a statement on Tuesday.

They added there had “not yet been any direct ground clash between (Hezbollah) resistance fighters and (Israeli) occupation forces.”

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The UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon also said on Tuesday that there was “no ground incursion” going on in the south of the country. UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti told AFP news agency there was “no ground incursion right now.”

Israeli officials want Hezbollah to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River, about 18 km from the Israeli border, which would allow displaced Israeli civilians to return to their homes near the border.

Firas Maksad, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes there is likely more to Israel’s war aims. “The stated objective is to return some 60,000 Israelis to their homes in the north. However, what we’re witnessing is something much broader than that,” he told CNN.

“It is an attempt, perhaps, to redraw the balance of power not only in Lebanon but more broadly in the Levant and even perhaps in the region as it relates to Iran. And we’ve heard time and again that this might now very much include a ground component.”

Just what a “limited” invasion might entail, however, also remains unclear.

“In the Lebanese psyche in particular, but others in the region, too, that past Israeli land incursions and invasions into Lebanon were also dubbed as being limited, so there’s a lot of question marks and certainly a lack of trust as to how far this operation will go,” Maksad said.

The international community has repeatedly warned against further escalation, fearing it could plunge the entire region into chaos.

INNUMBERS

• 1,000+ Lebanese killed in Israel-Hezbollah clashes in the past two weeks.

• 1m Lebanese displaced by Israel-Hezbollah fighting so far.

During a recent visit to Lebanon, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot urged both sides to agree to a ceasefire and resolve the conflict diplomatically, calling on Israel to “refrain from any action that could destabilize the region.”

Meanwhile, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati described the situation as “one of the most dangerous phases” in Lebanon’s history, stressing the need to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

As the conflict intensifies, the US has bolstered its military presence in the region, sending “a few thousand” additional troops to ensure security and protect Israel if necessary, according to the Pentagon.

In Lebanon, reactions to the latest escalation are divided. Hezbollah supporters have welcomed the confrontation, while many others oppose being dragged into a war not of their making. For Karine, a 37-year-old mathematics teacher, the country is being held hostage by Hezbollah.

“I sympathize with the Palestinian cause. I even sympathize with Nasrallah’s supporters. But reason says you cannot drag the whole country into war due to the decisions of a few,” she told Arab News.

“Israel, while I consider it an abomination before God, has demonstrated incredible military might. We have been dealing with crisis after crisis since 2019, and we are not up for this fight. We are too exhausted.

“Even if Hezbollah wants to fight, thousands of their soldiers have been left blinded and without limbs. How are they to fire a gun without eyesight and fingers? Spare us.”

Nasrallah had previously declared that an Israeli invasion would provide a “historic opportunity” for Hezbollah to eliminate its enemies — a sentiment reiterated by his deputy, Naim Qassem.

In a televised speech, the first since Nasrallah’s death, Qassem vowed revenge, stating that “the resistance is ready” to confront Israeli forces.




Smoke rises over Beirut’s southern suburbs after a strike. (Reuters)

Despite the loss of its leader, Qassem insisted that Hezbollah’s arsenal remains intact and that the group has the resources it needs for the fight. He called for patience, assuring supporters that while the battle will be long, Hezbollah will ultimately emerge victorious.

However, Hezbollah’s closest allies, Iran and Syria, have been notably hesitant to intervene.

While Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei mourned Nasrallah, calling him his “dear Sayyed” and urged Muslims to stand by Lebanon against the “foul-natured Zionist regime,” the Iranian government has made it clear that it will not send troops to Lebanon.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that “there is no need to send extra or volunteer forces” from Iran to Lebanon or Gaza, as “the fighters in both countries have the capability and strength to defend themselves against the aggression.”

Similarly, Syria’s President Bashar Assad has yet to provide any concrete aid beyond condemning Israel’s actions.

Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director for research at the Carnegie Middle East Center, suggests that Hezbollah has realized it is largely on its own in this conflict.

“Israel’s actions were a message of deterrence to Iran,” Hage Ali told Arab News. “I don’t think Iran wants to join the conflict, given how it now understands Israel’s military capabilities.

“There has been an unexpected level of infiltration within the ranks of Hezbollah and it seems too deep for the organization to deal with. No one has been able to figure out yet where the leaks are coming from.”

He added: “Hezbollah exists as a frontline asset but now serves as a cautionary tale for Iran.”

Iran’s apparent reluctance to intervene on behalf of its Hezbollah ally could be costly in terms of its credibility.




On Tuesday night, Iran fired a wave of ballistic missiles at Israel. (AP)

“The lack of response from Iran is contributing to a lot of grievances among its Arab allies, particularly in Lebanon, even within the Hezbollah support base in the Shiite community, essentially asking and wondering whether they’ve been left out to dry, by themselves, without Iran coming to their aid,” Maksad said.

“I don’t think Iran will be coming to their aid. They understand that in any direct confrontation with Israel they are at a disadvantage. And so what we’ve been hearing, time and again, from Iranian officials is this commitment to support Hezbollah, to support the Lebanese and their various proxies, in their fight against Israel, but not to be dragged into it themselves. They see that as a trap that they very much want to avoid.”

On Tuesday evening, however, Iran mounted a response, firing a wave of ballistic missiles at Israel.

In April, Iran mounted its first direct attack on Israeli soil with a massive barrage of missiles and drones in retaliation for the Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus.

Although Israeli air defenses were able to destroy some 99 percent of the drones and missiles before they reached its airspace, the incident sent a strong message that Iran would respond if pushed.

This latest Iranian attack will again have sent a strong message of deterrence, but is unlikely to change Hezbollah’s fortunes on the ground in Lebanon.

Indeed, with its leadership decapitated, its communication networks compromised, and with potential leaks within its ranks in Lebanon and Syria, Hezbollah already appears to be on the ropes.

Much depends on how Iran chooses to respond in the long run.




Hezbollah supporters have welcomed the confrontation, while many others oppose being dragged into a war not of their making. (AFP)

“This is essentially the opening round of a 12-round match between Hezbollah, backed by Iran, on the one hand, and Israel,” Maksad said.

“And if we know anything from history (it) is that Israel is pretty effective at landing these strong opening blows, but Iran tends to play the long game.”

 


UN Security Council expected to meet Monday over Israel’s strike on Iran, diplomats say

UN Security Council expected to meet Monday over Israel’s strike on Iran, diplomats say
Updated 13 sec ago
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UN Security Council expected to meet Monday over Israel’s strike on Iran, diplomats say

UN Security Council expected to meet Monday over Israel’s strike on Iran, diplomats say
NEW YORK: The United Nations Security Council is expected to meet on Monday to discuss Israel’s attack on Iran, diplomats said on Sunday.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi called on the Security Council to meet over the attack and diplomats said the council was likely to discuss the situation on Monday.
“Israeli regime’s actions constitute a grave threat to international peace and security and further destabilize an already fragile region,” Araqchi said in a letter to the 15-member council on Saturday.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran, in alignment with the principles enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations and under international law, reserves its inherent right to legal and legitimate response to these criminal attacks at the appropriate time,” he wrote.
Scores of Israeli jets completed three waves of strikes before dawn on Saturday against missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran, Israel’s military said.
It was retaliation for Iran’s Oct. 1 attack on Israel with about 200 ballistic missiles, and Israel warned its heavily armed arch-foe not to hit back after the latest strike.
Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon rejected Iran’s complaint at the United Nations, saying in a statement on Sunday that Iran was “trying to act against us in the diplomatic arena with the ridiculous claim that Israel has violated international law.”
“As we have stated time and time again, we have the right and duty to defend ourselves and will use all the means at our disposal to protect the citizens of Israel,” Danon said.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres appealed “to all parties to cease all military actions, including in Gaza and Lebanon, exert maximum efforts to prevent an all-out regional war and return to the path of diplomacy,” his spokesperson said in a statement on Saturday.

UN chief ‘shocked by harrowing levels of death, injury and destruction’ in north Gaza

A man reacts while sitting atop rubble following Israeli bombardment on the Zarqa neighbourhood in the north of Gaza City.
A man reacts while sitting atop rubble following Israeli bombardment on the Zarqa neighbourhood in the north of Gaza City.
Updated 54 min 40 sec ago
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UN chief ‘shocked by harrowing levels of death, injury and destruction’ in north Gaza

A man reacts while sitting atop rubble following Israeli bombardment on the Zarqa neighbourhood in the north of Gaza City.
  • “The plight of Palestinian civilians trapped in North Gaza is unbearable,” Guterres’s spokesman Stephane Dujarric said

UNITED NATIONS: UN chief Antonio Guterres said Sunday he was “shocked by harrowing levels of death, injury and destruction” in north Gaza, where Israeli forces are carrying out attacks they say aim to prevent Hamas regrouping.
“The plight of Palestinian civilians trapped in North Gaza is unbearable,” Guterres’s spokesman Stephane Dujarric said.
“The Secretary-General is shocked by the harrowing levels of death, injury and destruction in the north, with civilians trapped under rubble, the sick and wounded going without life-saving health care, and families lacking food and shelter.”
The spokesman said that according to Gaza’s health ministry, hundreds of people have been killed in recent weeks and more than 60,000 others were forced to flee.
“Repeated efforts to deliver humanitarian supplies essential to survive — food, medicine and shelter — continue to be denied by the Israeli authorities, with few exceptions, putting countless lives in peril,” Dujarric said.
“In the name of humanity, the Secretary-General reiterates his calls for an immediate ceasefire, the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages, and accountability for crimes under international law.”


Syria Kurd force denies links to Ankara attack as Turkiye strikes

Syria Kurd force denies links to Ankara attack as Turkiye strikes
Updated 27 October 2024
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Syria Kurd force denies links to Ankara attack as Turkiye strikes

Syria Kurd force denies links to Ankara attack as Turkiye strikes
  • Turkiye carried out air strikes against targets linked to Kurdish militants in Iraq and Syria after Wednesday’s shooting and suicide attack that killed five people at a defense firm near the Turkish capital

HASAKEH: The commander of a Kurdish-led force in Syria denied links to a deadly attack near Ankara claimed by Kurdish PKK militants, after Turkish strikes on Kurd-held Syria killed more than a dozen people in retaliation.
Turkiye carried out air strikes against targets linked to Kurdish militants in Iraq and Syria after Wednesday’s shooting and suicide attack that killed five people at a defense firm near the Turkish capital.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the attackers infiltrated from neighboring Syria, vowing there would be no let-up in the fight against Kurdish militants.
“We opened an internal investigation and I can confirm that none of the attackers entered Turkiye from Syrian territory,” Mazloum Abdi, the head of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) told AFP.
The SDF is a US-backed force that spearheaded fighting against the Daesh group in its last Syria strongholds before its territorial defeat in 2019.
It is dominated by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), viewed by Ankara as an offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) which claimed the attack on Ankara.
“We have no connection to this attack that took place in Ankara,” Abdi said late Saturday from Hasakah, a major city run by the semi-autonomous Kurdish administration in northeast Syria.
“Our battlefields are inside Syrian territory,” he added.
Turkish strikes on Kurd-held Syria since Wednesday have killed 15 civilians and two fighters, according to Abdi.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based war monitor, said Turkiye has launched more than 100 strikes, most of them using drones, since Wednesday.
It said civilian infrastructure including bakeries, grain silos and power stations were hit alongside military facilities and checkpoints used by Kurdish forces.
“It seems that (Turkiye’s) goal is not just to respond to the events that took place in Ankara, but also to target institutions and sources of livelihood for the population,” said Abdi.
“The main goal is to weaken and eliminate the (semi) autonomous administration, forcing the population to migrate,” he said.



Abdi said he was open to dialogue to de-escalate tensions but demanded an end to Turkiye’s attacks which he said are “ongoing” and suggest a potentially wider operation.
“We are ready to resolve issues with Turkiye through dialogue, but not under the pressure of attacks, so these operations must be stopped for dialogue efforts to continue,” Abdi said.
Turkish troops and allied rebel factions control swaths of northern Syria following successive cross-border offensives since 2016, most of them targeting the SDF.
“The Turkish state is taking advantage of the current events in the Middle East, as attention is directed toward Gaza, Lebanon and the Israeli attack on Iran” to launch new attacks on Syria, Abdi said.
Abdi criticized his US allies for not protecting Kurdish forces, saying the position of the US-led coalition “seems weak.”
The United States has about 900 troops in Syria as part of an anti-jihadist coalition.
“Their response is not at the level required to stop the attacks, and pressure must be put on Turkiye,” he added, saying the strikes on Syria “not only concern us but also affect their forces.”
The US presidential election on November 5 could also weaken support for the SDF if Donald Trump is elected, according to Abdi.
In 2019, Trump announced a decision to withdraw thousands of US troops from Kurdish-held Syria, paving the way for Turkiye to launch an invasion there that same year.
“In 2019, we had an unsuccessful experience with the administration of US President Trump,” said the SDF commander.
“But we are confident that the United States... makes its decisions based on” strategic interests in the region.


CIA, Mossad chiefs to meet with Qatar PM for Gaza ceasefire and hostage negotiations: Official

CIA, Mossad chiefs to meet with Qatar PM for Gaza ceasefire and hostage negotiations: Official
Updated 27 October 2024
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CIA, Mossad chiefs to meet with Qatar PM for Gaza ceasefire and hostage negotiations: Official

CIA, Mossad chiefs to meet with Qatar PM for Gaza ceasefire and hostage negotiations: Official
  • The talks aim to get Israel and Hamas to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza that would last less than a month

DOHA: The directors of the CIA and Israel’s Mossad will meet Qatar’s prime minister in Doha on Sunday to begin negotiations for a new short term Gaza ceasefire deal and the release of some hostages by Hamas in exchange for Israel’s release of Palestinian prisoners, an official briefed on the talks told Reuters.
The talks aim to get Israel and Hamas to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza that would last less than a month, with the hope that it would lead to a more permanent agreement, the official said. The details of which or how many hostages and prisoners would be released as part of the deal is not yet clear, the official said.


Iranian officials to determine how to respond to Israel

Iranian officials to determine how to respond to Israel
Updated 27 October 2024
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Iranian officials to determine how to respond to Israel

Iranian officials to determine how to respond to Israel
  • Iran confirmed Israel had targeted military sites around the capital and in other provinces, saying the raids caused “limited damage”
  • Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel’s air attack on Iran was “precise and powerful”

TEHRAN: Iranian officials should determine how best to demonstrate Iran’s power to Israel after the Israeli attack on Iran two nights ago, Iran’s official IRNA news agency cited the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as saying on Sunday.
“The evil committed by the Zionist regime (Israel) two nights ago should neither be downplayed nor exaggerated,” IRNA cited Khamenei as saying.

Meanwhile Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that Israel’s air attack on Iran was “precise and powerful” and achieved all its goals.
“We promised we would respond to the Iranian attack and on Saturday we struck... The attack in Iran was precise and powerful, achieving all of its objectives,” Netanyahu said in a speech marking the Hebrew calendar anniversary of the Hamas attack on October 7 last year.
Israel’s strikes were in retaliation for an October 1 attack by Iran, which fired about 200 missiles at Israel, though most were intercepted by the country’s air defenses.
“Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of ballistic missiles and this attack failed,” Netanyahu said.
“We kept our promise. The air force attacked Iran and hit Iran’s defense capabilities and missile production,” he said.
Iran confirmed Israel had targeted military sites around the capital and in other provinces, saying the raids caused “limited damage” but killed four soldiers.
Iran on Saturday played down Israel’s overnight air attack against Iranian military targets, saying it caused only limited damage, as US President Joe Biden called for a halt to escalation that has raised fears of an all-out conflagration in the Middle East.
Scores of Israeli jets completed three waves of strikes before dawn against missile factories and other sites near Tehran and in western Iran, Israel’s military said.
Khamenei said Iran’s power should be demonstrated to Israel, adding that the way to do so should be “determined by the officials and that which is in the best interest of the people and the country should take place.”