EU’s painfully slow preparations for the next 5 years
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Much of the world’s political attention is currently focused on the US presidential election in November. In Europe, however, another very important transition of power is taking place in Brussels.
Since the European Parliament elections in June, the formation of the next European Commission, the EU’s primary executive arm, has moved forward at a glacial pace. However, the commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, has finally proposed her top team to guide Brussels through the coming five years.
In common with US presidents when they pick a running mate and form an administration, von der Leyen has attempted to balance a number of factors, including gender equality and the longstanding rule of one commissioner per member state. In so doing, this time she has put her political stamp on the chosen top team in a more marked way than she did in 2019 when assembling her first commission.
One example of this is the ruthless removal of Frenchman Thierry Breton, a key architect of the EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act, who was perhaps her strongest critic among commissioners over the past five years.
The fact that von der Leyen, as president, will be the biggest political figure in the new commission might appear inevitable. However, some very senior figures among her choices for the previous commission, such as European Green Deal czar Franz Timmermans from the Netherlands and competition chief Margrethe Vestager from Denmark, highlight the fact that this may not always be the case.
Another important dynamic is the fact that several of the most economically interventionist states in Europe have secured top economic portfolios. Certainly, commissioners are supposed to, and generally do, distance themselves from the national interests of their countries of origin and focus on the interests of the wider EU. However, there are some key historical examples of when this has not always been the case. Lord Cockfield for example, sometimes called “the father of the European single market,” was influenced by the policy preferences of UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s to develop a more economically laissez faire Europe.
The nominations do potentially provide an indication of the direction in which EU policy might evolve, especially after the publication of a landmark industrial strategy report compiled by Mario Draghi, a former prime minister of Italy and former president of the European Central Bank.
For example, Teresa Ribera, who previously served as Spain’s deputy prime minister and minister for ecological transition, has been nominated to be commission’s executive vice president in charge of the EU’s clean, fair, and competitive transition. Stephane Sejourne, a close ally of French President Emmanuel Macron, who most recently served as his country’s foreign minister, is the choice for executive vice president for prosperity and industrial strategy.
Several of the most economically interventionist states in Europe have secured top economic portfolios.
Andrew Hammond
Both Spain and France have strong, longstanding interventionist cultures. France has a tradition of dirigisme, for example, meaning the government has a lot more control over the economy compared with administrations in some other European economies. French public sector debt as a proportion of gross domestic product has risen significantly, raising concerns during a recent political debate in Paris about the sustainability of the nation’s finances, despite reforms in recent years by Macron.
Von der Leyen said the proposed new college of commissioners has been structured around important new political guidelines she revealed a few weeks ago. This is her de facto governing road map for the commission in the second half of the 2020s.
The focus in these guidelines is on core principles such as prosperity, security, and democracy. This was all framed within the EU’s efforts to enhance competitiveness, particularly in the context of the twin transitions toward decarbonization and digitalization which are considered crucial for its future success.
Von der Leyen has also highlighted the importance of strengthening Europe’s technological sovereignty to help create a competitive, decarbonized, and circular economy. She described this as a “bold industrial strategy” driven by innovation, which will be key to supporting regional cohesion, developing skills, and upholding Europe’s social model. By excelling in these areas, she said, “Europe can assert its interests and lead on the global stage.”
She also highlighted her efforts to improve diversity of leadership within the college, and 40 percent of the nominees are women, though she acknowledged that there is more work to do to reach her goal of parity of males and females.
The next step in forming the new commission is a potentially tough confirmations process that will be carried out by the European Parliament. When this is complete the nominees will take office, most likely toward the end of this year. The date was initially expected to be Nov. 1, days before the US presidential election. One rationale for this was an attempt to build momentum ahead of a possible victory by maverick Republican Donald Trump.
The EU is certainly concerned about what a second Trump administration might mean for the bloc. During his first term, from 2017 to 2021, he was a strong advocate of Brexit and called for more countries to leave the union, while at the same time he pursued warmer relations with traditional EU foes such as Russian President Vladimir Putin.
However, confirmation hearings for the nominees are not likely to begin until mid-October. This would push a final vote to November and might delay the start of the new commission’s work until at least December.
Still, its formation is finally moving toward finalization, though by the time commissioners finally take office it is likely to be about six months after the elections. This time could prove to be a significant economic and political window of opportunity that was lost, and von der Leyen might have reason to regret it later during the potentially turbulent times that lie ahead in 2025 and beyond.
• Andrew Hammond is an associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.
