France gets new PM, awaits formation of a government
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The deadlock in France has been broken, at least temporarily. The first step of forming the next government was taken after a prime minister was tasked with forming it.
In principle, there is nothing problematic about choosing Michel Barnier, a seasoned politician and diplomat who has distinguished himself in the corridors of French and European politics and who played a pivotal role in the negotiations between the UK and EU over Brexit.
Barnier is a man of the traditional right, which is currently represented by The Republicans party, today the fourth-largest parliamentary bloc in France. The traditional right had exerted great influence and enjoyed remarkable support for decades. Indeed, it had been the dominant force in French politics since the emergence of the Fifth Republic, which Gen. Charles de Gaulle founded on the ruins of political anarchy and the frailty of some socialist and centrist leaders in the post-Second World War era.
France notably lost its former colonies during this period, first with the Battle of Dien Bien Phu in Indochina, then the Algerian War of Independence and finally the independence of France’s remaining colonies in West Africa.
De Gaulle had laid the foundations for this movement, which was later modified by its members, with some ambitious leaders, such as Valery Giscard d’Estaing, Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, creating their own “schools” and naming them after themselves.
For the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, both the far right and the far left now find themselves in the back seat
Eyad Abu Shakra
Indeed, after De Gaulle’s success in building the Fifth Republic through the traditional right-wing Gaullist movement, the traditional left managed to regroup under the leadership of another remarkable figure, Francois Mitterrand. Mitterrand achieved this by rebuilding the Socialist Party and then gradually increasingly benefiting from an alliance with the communists, whom he eventually tamed, co-opted and ultimately marginalized almost completely by the time the Berlin Wall fell, and with it the Warsaw Pact and European communism under the shadow of the former Soviet Union.
France has always been home to second-rate forces — from the far right to the far left — that operate outside of the two traditional “tents” of Gaullism and Mitterrandism. These forces’ fortunes would wax and wane depending on the circumstances, the quality of their leadership, the forms of the challenges they faced and the alliances they made. However, for the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, both now find themselves in the back seat.
Neither of them ever imagined they would become extras in a play whose producer, director and scriptwriter they have no influence over. However, that has been true in France since Emmanuel Macron upended the political landscape after he turned on Socialist President Francois Hollande and founded a new party in his own image — a pragmatic, ambiguous, enigmatic movement that is only loosely committed to traditional principles.
In the 2017 presidential election, voters did not see Macron’s break with the Socialists as a betrayal, but rather a natural course of action for an ambitious and intelligent young leader who saw Hollande’s approval rate collapse (it was as low as 4 percent by the autumn of 2016). Thus, they also voted for Macron’s newly formed party, En Marche! — now part of the Ensemble coalition — in the subsequent general election. They put their faith in him despite his party being in its infancy, the inexperience of its leaders and its “gray” slogans.
In the 2022 presidential election, when voters extended Macron’s mandate, the outcome was more of a rejection of the far-right Marine Le Pen than it was an endorsement of Macron. The electorate no longer believed that he had magical solutions for the problems of this “country with 258 varieties of cheese,” as is often said to highlight the difficulty of satisfying the French people.
In recent weeks, the burning question has been what Macron’s priorities are and which forces he will seek to isolate
Eyad Abu Shakra
The outcome of this year’s snap parliamentary elections not only demonstrated that Macron’s party is incapable of governing on its own; it also underscored the gravity of France’s governance crisis. Political and parliamentary power in France is currently shared among four forces, none of which have much in common with any of the others. That will not change unless Macron succeeds in leveraging the immense powers of the presidency in France’s current presidential system to undermine the solidity of these blocs and exploit their contradictions.
The largest of the four political forces is the New Popular Front, a coalition with 182 seats that brings together most of France’s left-wing parties. Macron’s presidential coalition is the second largest with 168 seats. Then comes the far-right National Rally with 143 seats. The Republicans are in last place and by a large margin.
In recent weeks, the burning question has been what Macron’s priorities are and which forces he will seek to isolate, break apart or create rifts within. It is no secret that Macron was never comfortable with the left having a strong parliamentary presence and he was betting that the New Popular Front would splinter. However, he also understands the risks of betting on a direct alliance with the far right.
Accordingly, Macron concluded that the best and safest approach was to call on a well-known and trusted figure from one of the smaller blocs — someone who he could come to an understanding with and who would be acceptable to the far right. At the same time, he has left the door open to any left-wing faction that is tempted by the idea of joining a coalition government, impelling them to break with the New Popular Front.
Barnier meets the criteria. Thus, he was appointed before complex questions regarding the formation of the government were resolved.
At the heart of the Elysee’s considerations were timing, shifting priorities, personal ambitions and room for maneuver ... why not, so long as Macron has the final say?
- Eyad Abu Shakra is managing editor of Asharq Al-Awsat. X: @eyad1949
This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.
