Harris, Trump fine-tuning policies ahead of crucial showdown

The US election campaign has entered its last sprint, with less than two months to go until election day on Nov. 5. The two candidates, the Republican former President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, will face off on Tuesday for their first debate and the first personal encounter between the two.
The last debate between President Joe Biden and Trump was a disaster for the incumbent and ultimately sent his election campaign packing, ending his dream of a second term. Will the first debate between Trump and Harris end her honeymoon in the polls and end her presidential dream too? It is impossible to predict how the candidates will do, but the debate could keep the campaign competitive, as it is now.
The election is already underway, with some absentee ballots to be mailed soon and a number of states gearing up for early voting this month. The candidates are busy preparing the debate strategies that will contrast them with their opponent.
Trump and Harris are fine-tuning their policies to sharpen the differences between them on all issues, including foreign policy, such as the Middle East conflict and the American and Israeli hostages’ deaths. While Harris affirmed her support for Israel in her nomination speech, she also called for an end to the war in Gaza and said “what has happened in Gaza over the past 10 months is devastating.”
Her position, which she has been repeating on the campaign trail, tries to placate the Arab American vote with the balanced statement that: “President Biden and I are working to end this war such that Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends and the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self-determination.”
Trump is also declaring his support for Israel and blaming the Biden administration for the death of the hostages in Gaza, saying “they have blood on their hands.” On Thursday, Trump told Jewish Republicans that, if Harris wins, “Israel is gone.”
The presidential candidates are also contrasting with each other on the economy, courting both the middle class and the labor movement.
Harris announced early on that “building up the middle class will be a defining goal of my presidency.” She has also promised to lift up the “working class” and improve its fortunes. She is trying to walk a fine line of sticking to Democratic economic policies, while at the same time distancing herself from the Biden administration policies that are the target of Trump’s wrath. She is introducing her new plan for small business tax breaks and promising aid for first-time home buyers and to build new homes. In her effort to move to the political center, she has proposed relatively lower taxes (a 28 percent capital gains tax rate on Americans who make at least a million dollars a year, compared to Biden’s planned 39.6 percent).
Trump also claims to be the defender of the middle class and blames Biden for the high inflation and economic stress that working families are enduring under the Democratic administration.

The meteoric rise of Harris in the polls has put Trump on the back foot and changed the dynamics of the race.

Dr. Amal Mudallali

At the Economic Club of New York last week, Trump called for the establishment of a government efficiency commission, an idea that Elon Musk suggested to him and that the billionaire is expected to head if Trump wins the election. This idea drew criticism from Democrats and the media, with The New York Times warning that such a move would “give Elon Musk responsibilities for auditing federal spending and regulations.”
The meteoric rise of Harris in the polls has put the Trump campaign on the back foot and changed the dynamics of the 2024 election race. Trump was happy with Biden as his opponent and the shake-up of the Democratic ticket surprised his campaign at a late hour. This has forced him to come up with a new campaign strategy and fight against a new, younger, female opponent — a former prosecutor who will use his legal woes against him and promised to put her record against his “any day.” She has been repeating in her speeches, and she will surely repeat it during the debate, that as a prosecutor, she knows “Donald Trump’s type.”
Harris comes into the debate armed with polls that show her leading, especially in the battleground states. A poll by Redfield & Wilton Strategies showed Harris leading Trump in five out of the 10 potential swing states, with Nevada a tie. There have been reports that the Trump campaign is scaling down its operation in New Hampshire. Although his campaign denied these reports, it is logical for Trump to instead focus on Pennsylvania, a must-win state with its 19 electoral votes compared to New Hampshire’s four, if he is to win the election.
Trump is challenging Harris in Pennsylvania and attacked her on fracking, an important issue for the state’s economy. Harris suggested banning fracking during her 2020 presidential run, but she has since changed her position. But Trump told Pennsylvania voters last week: “You have no choice. You’ve got to vote for me … If she won, you’re not gonna have any fracking in Pennsylvania.”
The Trump campaign is pouring its money and attention on three “blue wall” battleground states that are critical for any election victory: Michigan (15 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (19 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes). The campaign is reportedly not prioritizing Minnesota, which was almost Trump’s for the taking in July, but it switched after Harris replaced Biden (Harris is now leading 48 percent to 43 percent in her vice presidential pick Tim Walz’s home state). Harris is also leading in Virginia (13 electoral votes) by 3 points.
The Trump campaign is also refocusing on the crucial swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. These states were in Trump’s orbit when he was running against Biden only two months ago, but Harris has now turned them into battleground states and is leading in the polls there too. According to the polls, Harris’ lead in the Midwest is also widening, especially in Wisconsin and Michigan.
These polls and the state of the campaign add to the pressure on Harris to do well in the debate. Her supporters tout her experience as a prosecutor to say that she will put Trump on trial during the debate over his convictions and prosecute the political case against him in front of the whole country. These Democrats are forgetting that this is a TV debate and not a courtroom. Trump will not have a gag order in place, as he did during his trial, and he will attack her feely.
During the debate, the jury will be the American voters. True, most of these people have strong opinions and their minds are already made up, but the Democrats underestimate Trump at their own peril.

• Dr. Amal Mudallali is a visiting research scholar at Princeton University and former Lebanese ambassador to the UN.