Macron’s Barnier gamble may have a hefty personal cost

The appointment of Michel Barnier as the prime minister of France last week came after a prolonged political deadlock, with President Emmanuel Macron at the helm. France has been without a permanent government since the second round of legislative elections were held in July.
Macron had announced the snap election in June in the aftermath of a resounding far-right victory in the European elections, hoping to see a centrist republican surge. Much to his dismay, the election, which saw the highest voter turnout in France in more than 40 years, led to significantly increased vote shares for the far-right National Rally and the New Popular Front, a left-wing alliance. The lack of a clear majority for any party led to extended consultations by Macron to find a suitable prime ministerial candidate, while former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal continued in a caretaker capacity after having resigned in July.
The French political crisis over the last two months has been detrimental to Macron’s political journey, which has transitioned from an initial wave of popularity to a reluctant reelection to keep the far-right at bay and now to a shift toward autocracy. Having been reelected in 2022 primarily to block the far right, Macron today faces a crisis of ideology.
His ambitious “en meme temps” (at the same time) approach, which aimed to merge leftist and rightist ideologies, has inadvertently created a political vacuum. By co-opting prominent political figures from both the right and the left, Macron became the center of gravity in the French political spectrum. This weakened the political parties that had traditionally structured the country’s political life. The resultant vacuum has promptly been filled by the National Rally-led far right, as well as the far left.
For the past two months, Macron has undertaken the herculean task of finding a perfectly moderate candidate through extended consultations with various parties, political leaders and government officials. In his attempt to find a candidate who would appeal across the political spectrum, Macron rejected the National Rally’s Jordan Bardella and the New Popular Front’s Lucie Castets. Speculation emerged that the center-left former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve and the center-right Xavier Bertrand were his top contenders. However, Macron ended the deadlock on Thursday by appointing Barnier, a veteran French politician from the liberal conservative The Republicans party.
Macron was convinced that, by delaying this decision, he was acting in the best interests of the French Republic. However, this delay frustrated his political supporters, opponents and the masses alike. Manuel Bompard, the national coordinator of the left-wing France Unbowed, described Macron’s actions as an “unacceptable anti-democratic coup.” France Unbowed’s leader Jean-Luc Melenchon went so far as to call for a motion of impeachment against the president.

Having been reelected in 2022 primarily to block the far right, Macron today faces a crisis of ideology.

Zaid M. Belbagi

The political crisis has also worsened the socioeconomic conditions in France. The snap elections led to a sharp fall in investor confidence and credit scores. Investors readily sold off French debt, while shares in leading French banks fell by 9 percent. This came as the nation was already struggling with popular discontent over the government’s proposed changes to the pension system, the high inflation and cost of living and a spurt in urban crime and militancy across the country.
Barnier is now faced with the challenge of bringing France out of this political crisis and addressing the mounting socioeconomic grievances. Under French law, the government is required to submit a budget to parliament by Oct. 1. This would require Barnier to form a stable government that could survive a no-confidence vote. One of the key reasons Macron appointed Barnier as PM is due to the latter’s reputation of consensus-building and his leading of the EU’s Brexit negotiations. As Barnier himself stated: “All political forces will have to be respected and listened to.” It remains to be seen whether Macron’s gamble to appoint a prime minister who could be perceived as moderate by both sides will pay off. The French left is all but certain to challenge Barnier in the no-confidence vote.
At any rate, the recent deadlock has made French voters increasingly wary of Macron’s autocratic approach to governance and led to questions over the president’s vast constitutional powers in the Fifth Republic. The landslide victory for the far right in the recent European elections itself was a consequence of Macron’s authoritarian centrism. In the French presidential system, significant power lies in the hands of the president, which puts the position under a unique spotlight. In times of success and crisis alike, the president is held entirely responsible. Polls have found that the public’s dislike for Macron has a personal dimension, which is different to the characteristic French apathy toward government.
Having ended the search for the next French prime minister, Macron hopes that Barnier will revive his “en meme temps” approach. Yet, in this process, Macron alienated his supporters and provided the opportunity for his opponents to question his competence. As French voters watched Macron struggle with a political crisis he created by calling for snap elections, they were reminded of the creation of the First Republic, when the voice of the public reigned supreme. Today, voters realize that the Fifth Republic brings, every five years, a so-called republican monarch whose vast constitutional powers must be questioned with each new mandate.
Although Macron’s journey to find the illusory perfectly moderate prime minister has now concluded, it may have come at the cost of his own political future.

• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council region. X: @Moulay_Zaid