Europe’s standing takes a new hit from the far right
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Even for Germany and the Germans, it is easy to forget the lessons from history. It might be very simplistic to suggest that migrants and knives have become capable of holding Western liberal democracy to ransom. But the German state elections held at the weekend have demonstrated just that correlation, as the results dealt a heavy blow to the parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government.
The historic gains for two anti-establishment parties are likely to aggravate instability in an already fractious ruling coalition domestically, as well as the wider EU system, which represents a bloc of 27 nations, at a time when Europe as a whole is facing its biggest challenge since Russia invaded parts of Ukraine two and a half years ago.
The Alternative for Germany became the first far-right party to win a state-level legislature election in Germany since the Second World War, as it took 32.8 percent of the vote in Thuringia. It also came a close second in neighboring Saxony, winning 30.6 percent, just behind the mainstream conservative Christian Democratic Union’s 31.9 percent.
Meanwhile, the leftist populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance won more votes than all three parties in Scholz’s coalition, finishing third in both states just eight months after its founding.
The strength of these anti-NATO, anti-immigration and Russia-friendly parties will make forming ideologically coherent coalitions ever harder at both state and federal level.
The votes cast for extremist parties in Saxony and Thuringia could further upset an EU already on the edge
Mohamed Chebaro
Regional and state government elections in Germany rarely garner much attention, but this time around the votes cast for extremist parties in Saxony and Thuringia could further upset an EU already on the edge. The bloc has, in recent years, seen the decline of traditional parties and the rise of insurgents and populist disruptors. Such leaders and parties have gained a lot of traction from France to Italy and Hungary to Germany, but especially in the EU’s eastern, ex-communist parts, with immigration being the key factor in their rise.
The anti-migration, anti-Islam Alternative for Germany spent the last weeks of its campaign drumming up the message that Scholz’s coalition government has been failing its citizens, without clear evidence of course. It used both old and recent deadly mass stabbings and other violent attacks carried out by migrants, some of whom were linked to Daesh, to whip up outrage and anger among voters.
An attack that killed three and injured eight in the western city of Solingen last month, perpetrated by a failed Syrian asylum seeker, was one such incident that was used to spread fear and the toxic narrative of the extremist parties. But it was also used by mainstream politicians, who raced to call for deportations, stricter asylum laws and other security solutions to the migration issue.
That translated into the first victory for Alternative for Germany on a state level, despite its Saxony and Thuringia chapters having been classified by the security apparatus as right-wing extremist and despite the party’s leadership having become repeatedly embroiled in scandals over sympathetic comments about Hitler’s SS and repeating Nazi slogans.
Before the elections, roughly a third of voters in Saxony and Thuringia had named immigration and asylum policy as the issue that was most important to them. Another sore point was support for Ukraine. In Thuringia, the Alternative for Germany’s heartland, 54 percent of respondents in an exit poll said they thought Western states should offer less military support to Kyiv. This region is historically more sympathetic to Russia and also more affected by the industrial downturn witnessed in the aftermath of the 2022 energy crisis.
With only a year to go before the next national election is held in Europe’s largest economy, the poor results for Scholz are set to increase the pressure on the chancellor to be tougher on immigration. He will also need to work harder to persuade voters that the government’s course on Ukraine is the only avenue to protect their freedoms.
The poor results for Scholz are set to increase the pressure on the chancellor to be tougher on immigration
Mohamed Chebaro
But anything that this German government does is unlikely to appease the supporters of the extreme movements that have gradually taken root in society. Their appeal is based on false premises and often weaponized by anti-Western forces and narratives from inside and outside the country. The question of immigration and the dynamics that control it are so multilayered that no single nation or bloc of states could offer a solution that deals with the root causes of dispossession, conflicts and the offer of safe refuge and protection for the many, despite the abuses of the few.
The questions that nations seeing a surge in the electability of marginal forces like populists, nationalists and alt-right forces need to ask are whether their democracy and liberal values have been held to ransom by migrants wielding knives and whether they are happy for stabbings to become a catalyst for the far-right’s popularity?
The answer to these questions is no doubt complex, as the roots of the problem can be found in many of the challenges states, societies and economies face today, such as weaker growth, dwindling state revenues and poorer welfare state provisions due to increased costs, austerity and inflation, which most countries in the world are grappling with. This is often boosted by the ready capacity of social media to exaggerate and amplify problems, thanks to malicious algorithms, the distribution of fake news and troll-induced narratives that appeal to the most basic of human instincts, driving up fear at the expense of hope.
The victory of an extreme-right party in Germany coincided with neighboring Poland commemorating the start of the Nazi invasion of its territories 85 years ago on Sunday. The far-right’s first victory in a German state election in the postwar era must prompt more soul-searching in Berlin, not more bickering among Scholz’s battered and unloved coalition. Failing that, the European project is on course to lose its balance after losing Britain to Brexit and France to the alt-left versus alt-right forces, while many other member states have embraced populism and institutionalized its existence as a force that dominates or divides the composition of parliaments across the bloc.
This fragmentation of the political landscape in Germany will only undermine the standing of Europe and Western democracies as a whole, amid an international geostrategic discord that seeks to redraw the map of influence across the globe, even through weaponizing migration or destabilizing nation states from within.
- Mohamed Chebaro is a British Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.
