Do Israel and Hamas really want to end the conflict?
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In principle, negotiations are aimed at bridging differences with the ultimate objective of resolving a conflict. But then there is the Israel-Hamas negotiating approach, one that increasingly leaves the impression that they engage, albeit indirectly, in ceasefire talks more for the sake of them, while failing to convince anyone that reaching a deal is their top priority.
All the evidence shows that they are more invested in continuing the conflict than ending it, or are at least incapable of internalizing that neither side has anything to gain in prolonging the war, and that it is only by agreeing on the necessary compromises that this horrific bloodshed will end. For both the Israeli and Palestinian people a ceasefire is an urgent necessity, one that will also ensure that the hostages who are wasting away in captivity will be freed. But the same sense of urgency is not shared by their respective leaderships.
The longer that this most violent episode in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since 1948 continues, the more it becomes evident that there are no political achievements possible for either side to gain from it. Moreover, the war from its outset has been internationalized, at some points leaving the entire region on the very brink of a regional war and providing the Iranian-led so-called “Axis of Resistance” an opportunity, more accurately an excuse, to dangerously draw the battle lines between themselves, the rest of the region, and the Western powers, in the name of defending the Palestinian cause.
The route to defusing bilateral and regional tensions, even if not immediately resolving their underlying causes, goes through a ceasefire in Gaza. Hence the constant derailing and delaying tactics of the Israeli government, and especially of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that are being employed to save his political skin rather than for any viable strategic reason, have become detrimental to the future of Israelis, Palestinians, and regional stability.
There is a credible argument that at least until last week, when Israel pre-empted a massive Hezbollah missile and drone attack and consequently limited its scope and damage, enough had been done to satisfy both sides that all scores had been settled, at least for now. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was also uninterested in a ceasefire, in the hope that Israel’s recent spate of assassinations carried out in Beirut and Tehran would lead to a powerful military retaliation against Israel, leaving the latter weakened and thus improving his position with or without negotiations.
Now that this danger has, at least temporarily, been averted and ceasefire negotiations have resumed in Cairo and Doha, comes the real test of both sides’ desire for a ceasefire, and of the determination of the mediators and other elements in the international community to use their power to convince both protagonists that it is in their interests first to reach a ceasefire deal, but only as a first step toward a comprehensive agreement that will peacefully resolve the entire Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
All the evidence shows that they are more invested in continuing the conflict than ending it.
Yossi Mekelberg
Yet, on the Israeli side, and not only on this issue, it is the presence of Netanyahu and his disturbing reliance on the far right that is perpetuating a political-diplomatic bottleneck. I have long been a critic of Netanyahu’s politics, his unquenched hunger for power and his lack of morality. However, the current Netanyahu model that has emerged since he was charged with corruption, and the subsequent formation of his sixth administration in December 2022, is in a different league altogether and is totally self-serving. His responsibility for the misperceptions and miscalculations that for years built up Hamas’ military power; the lack of preparedness on Oct. 7; the weakening of Israeli society as a whole by forming a coalition with the most damaging, extreme right-wing elements who see Armageddon as desirable rather than as a cataclysm to be avoided; in addition to his and his family’s sheer hedonism in the midst of a war when so many people are dying every day — all of these failures are bound to be officially and thoroughly investigated when the war ends. But prolonging the war has become a means for Netanyahu to indefinitely delay such an investigation that would bring the curtain down on his time in Israeli politics.
To expect that Netanyahu would show any sympathy for all the Palestinians who have been killed, maimed or lost everything in the war and who are in desperate need of humanitarian aid would be reasonable, but also a big ask of someone with a psychological profile such as his, one that also dictates his policies. Yet, for a right-wing nationalist who fashioned himself as the defender of Israel and its people, his callous attitude toward the hostages and their families while it becomes increasingly evident that more dead hostages than live ones are returning home while those still held in Gaza have been going through hell for almost a year and soldiers are dying almost every day, is truly shocking.
Delaying a deal, one that his defense minister and the chiefs of the different branches of the security forces are encouraging him to reach, is evidence of someone who has lost all sense of judgment and morality. Netanyahu sends representatives of the Israeli Defense Forces, Mossad, and Shin Bet to negotiate in Cairo and Doha, seems to give them some leeway to make progress, and then presents new conditions that pull the carpet from under the feet of the negotiators, condemning many more people to immense suffering.
Israel’s demands for security and ensuring that Oct. 7 will never happen again are an understandable priority, as should be the security of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, but holding onto the Philadelphi Corridor or even the Netzarim/Salah Al-Din Road Corridor will not result in long-term security, but merely perpetuate the occupation and the conflict, as Netanyahu and his government have been advised by so many current and past senior security chiefs.
What hurts and divides Israeli society is the hostages issue, one that is breaking the bond between the people and a state that is failing in its basic responsibility to protect them from danger, something it failed to do on Oct. 7 and ever since by abandoning the hostages in the tunnels of Gaza. What makes it even worse is that it is being done for Netanyahu’s self-preservation and under duress from his coalition partners with their messianic ambitions to reoccupy and settle the Gaza Strip. It makes both the prime minister and his Cabinet culprits in prolonging this horrific war that should have long ago been concluded in a ceasefire.
• Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House.
X: @YMekelberg
