Turkiye seeks order in a disorderly region

Every country’s foreign policy is shaped by its strategic environment, its neighborhood, and its perception of the regional order. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Middle East, a region of political tensions, armed conflicts, and economic and social instability. For Turkiye, regional security challenges are particularly complex, posing a challenge to maintain its interests.

The Middle East has always been a hotspot of instability, but an escalation in crises in recent years has highlighted the fragility of the regional order. This has driven Turkiye to consider new strategies and tools to navigate emerging threats on a case-by-case basis and balance its aspirations with the realities of a turbulent region.

In this regard, Turkiye had to adopt reactive and tactical moves in its foreign policy rather than proactive strategies. Its previously muscular approach often placed Ankara at odds with regional players, creating complex rivalries from Libya to Syria and the eastern Mediterranean. However, following the de-escalation in the region, which also paved the way for Turkiye to normalize relations with regional actors, Ankara has shifted its focus from military involvement to leveraging soft power as a means to preserve its relations and interests in the region. This shift has been influenced by domestic political factors, the rise of a multipolar regional landscape, and intensified geopolitical competition.

Turkiye’s new policy was made clear by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: “In a period when our region is constantly on edge, establishing new equations in foreign policy is not just a choice but a necessity.” Ankara seemingly looks to be working toward a regional model in which alliances among regional states should be built against threats, not against each other. This regional model does not require any state to be either a “rule taker” or a “rule maker,” but instead partners in a new regional order.

Its previously muscular approach often placed Ankara at odds with regional players

Sinem Cengiz

With this in mind, Turkish policymakers are undertaking a significant transformation in foreign policy. There are five main challenges.

First, Syria. Turkish foreign policy in the Middle East remains a deeply contested arena in which it demonstrates both strength and vulnerability. The possibility of normalizing relations with the Syrian regime is likely to present a major shift in Turkiye’s foreign policy. However, progress has been slow and recent comments from Syrian President Bashar Assad suggest that efforts to mend ties have yet to yield substantial results. This issue remains a source of domestic tension in Turkiye.

Second, the Kurdish threat. Turkiye's primary concern is that regional disorder could increase Kurdish assertiveness in northern Iraq and Syria. Groups such as the PKK and its affiliates, including the YPG, pose a significant challenge to Turkish national security and interests. Recent escalations in clashes between these groups and Turkish forces underscore Turkiye’s anxiety about a potential rise in Kurdish terrorist activities.

Third, the Gaza war and Israeli-Iranian tension. Iran’s indirect involvement in regional instability and the risk of direct conflict with Israel add to the complexity. The Gaza war poses significant challenges to all regional states, and all efforts have failed to stop the Israeli aggression and develop the concept of regional cooperation for the plight of the Palestinian people.

There is one reality to be admitted: the future of Turkiye is inextricably linked to that of the Middle East

Sinem Cengiz

Fourth, fragile and failed states. Iraq’s security challenges and Lebanon’s political and economic paralysis further contribute to regional turmoil. Moreover, instability in Syria, Yemen, and Sudan have not only inflicted severe humanitarian suffering but have also contributed to a larger regional crisis, affecting food and water security for those who live there and beyond. Turkiye is helping these countries achieve stability, either as a mediator or a humanitarian aid provider.

Finally, the threat to economic interests. For Turkiye, one way to counter the instability in the Middle East is regional collaboration through economic initiatives. For instance, Turkiye’s involvement in ambitious projects with Iraq, the UAE, and Qatar, such as the multibillion-dollar initiative to connect the Iraqi port of Basra with Turkiye, highlights its attempts to enhance regional connectivity and economic integration. But regional disorder continues to pose significant obstacles to this cooperation and risks overshadowing these initiatives.

Turkiye is in a challenging region, affected not only by global geopolitical tensions but also by increased levels of regional instability. The country’s role and influence is limited by the instability that surrounds it, forming a bizarre picture of Ankara's current foreign policy. We cannot predict what kind of Middle East Turkiye will face in the years ahead. But there is one reality to be admitted: the future of Turkiye is inextricably linked to that of the Middle East, although its ability to shape the regional order remains limited.

• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz