The seven key states that will determine the US presidential election

With Kamala Harris now confirmed as the Democratic presidential candidate for 2024, she and Donald Trump will face off in several weeks of campaigning before the Nov. 5 election. Their efforts will primarily focus on a few key battleground states that will determine the election’s outcome.

The US system for electing the president is based around the Electoral College. Each state receives a number of votes, one for each senator and each representative the state has in the US Congress. There are 538 Electoral College votes, so whichever candidate gets at least 270 votes wins.

Within each state, with some variance in their rules, whoever wins a majority of the vote within the state wins all of its Electoral College votes. In most states, the outcome is predictable. For example, California’s votes are very likely to go to the Democratic candidate, while South Carolina’s votes are very likely to go to the Republican. This means that campaigning will focus on a few battleground states — also known as swing states — where the outcome is uncertain.

Most analysts agree that there are seven battleground states in 2024: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Each state presents its own opportunities and challenges for the candidates.

Georgia played a significant role in the last election and is likely to be a hotspot for any challenges to the outcome

Kerry Boyd Anderson

Nevada offers six electoral votes, making it the smallest of the swing states, but still important in a close race. Arizona has 11 votes. Both states are culturally part of the West — a rugged area between the Midwest and the West Coast’s mountains. Both states have experienced significant population growth in recent years and have large Latino populations. They have rural areas as well as cities, notably Las Vegas and Phoenix.

For Arizona, which has a long border with Mexico, immigration is a major issue but a complicated one. Large numbers of undocumented immigrants crossing the border pose a serious problem for the state, but many citizens in Arizona trace their roots to immigrants and cross-border trade and travel is important to many businesses.

Wisconsin, with 10 votes, and Michigan, with 15, are both part of the Upper Midwest. Parts of each state are in a region also known as the Rust Belt — a once-prosperous manufacturing area that has experienced economic decline. Culturally, these states share similarities with each other but are different from other battleground states. The states include large rural areas but also the major cities of Milwaukee and Detroit. Both states are predominantly white, although Michigan has a significant Black minority.

Georgia, with 16 votes, has experienced significant population growth. The state includes the large city of Atlanta and several other urban areas, as well as rural communities. Georgia is the only swing state from the Deep South, a region with its own history and social norms. Just over half of Georgia is white, while around a third of the population is Black; the latter is a crucial base for the Democratic Party. The state played a significant role in the last presidential election and is likely to be a hotspot for any challenges to the electoral outcome.

North Carolina, also with 16 votes, has a mix of Appalachian and coastal cultural influences. The growing population is 62 percent white with a large Black minority of about 22 percent. The state is geographically and economically diverse. North Carolina is perhaps the least competitive of the battleground states, as it leans Republican in presidential elections. However, while Republicans dominate the state’s legislature, the governor is a Democrat and the presidential outcome is not entirely certain.

It is possible — but difficult — for a candidate to lose Pennsylvania and still win the election

Kerry Boyd Anderson

Pennsylvania is the largest of the battleground states, with 19 electoral votes. It contains a significant mix of rural and urban areas, including Philadelphia, which is one of the largest cities in the US. Outside of Philadelphia, the state’s population is majority white, but the state is diverse in terms of cultural perspectives and political opinions.

According to journalist Colin Woodard’s typology of American subcultures, Pennsylvania is unusual in having three influential subcultures — what Woodard labels Yankeedom, the Midlands and Greater Appalachia, all of which are informed by different values and worldviews. Pennsylvania is often seen as a “must-win” state, given its large number of electoral votes and its unpredictability in elections. It is possible — but difficult — for a candidate to lose Pennsylvania and still win the election.

The battleground states are very different in many ways, but they have some common attributes. They all have some form of diversity, whether demographic, geographic or economic. They contain significant rural areas and large metropolitan areas. They have all experienced some form of demographic or economic change in recent years.

Voters in the battleground states tend to share the same concerns as most American voters. The prioritization and interpretation of those concerns varies among the states, but key issues for most American voters include the economy, immigration, US involvement in foreign wars and the state of American politics and democracy. Those are top issues in most of the battleground states, too. For some of the swing states — particularly Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin — access to abortion has also become a high-profile issue.

For observers of the presidential election, these are the key states to watch. They will determine the shape of the next four years of US politics.

• Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 18 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica. X: @KBAresearch