If Hezbollah is cornered, it could trigger a regionwide war
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Hezbollah last week published a video showing combatants transporting projectiles on trucks through tunnels. The video was aimed at sending a signal that the group is readying itself for war. A war with Israel would be a calamity that should be avoided at all costs. Chances are, it would turn into a regional war. However, Hezbollah will start such a war if it feels cornered. The key is to find a diplomatic solution.
The prevailing logic is that states and actors go to war because it is in their interest to do so. However, the reality is that they only go to war as a last resort. War is waged when there are no other viable options on the table. We have to remember Japan in the Second World War: it attacked the US despite the fact it was no military match for its rival. However, America was strangling Japan with its oil embargo and, by December 1941, it looked like Washington was not willing to negotiate to end the embargo.
Japan took the risk of attacking the US despite the high uncertainty it involved. It made this choice because it was cornered. America retaliated in the Battle of Midway and, ultimately, two of Japan’s major cities, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, were decimated by atomic bombs. Do we want the same scenario in the Middle East? I don’t think so. This is why diplomacy should be activated to its maximum level.
To understand Hezbollah’s behavior, one should put oneself in its shoes. Since Oct. 8, Israel has been conducting a series of successful assassinations. Domestic Lebanese opposition to the group is at an all-time high. Despite the population’s overwhelming support for Palestine, the group is being accused of unilaterally taking Lebanon to war. Faced with Hezbollah’s uncompromising position, the opposition has increased its attacks on the group.
Even Hezbollah’s relationship with its Christian ally the Free Patriotic Movement is now shaky. The disagreements between the two started with the Iran-aligned group’s endorsement of Suleiman Frangieh for the presidency instead of the head of the Christian party Gebran Bassil. The Free Patriotic Movement is now distancing itself from Hezbollah’s confrontation with Israel. In February, former President Michel Aoun shunned Hezbollah’s skirmishes with Tel Aviv by saying that Lebanon “is not bound by a defense treaty with Gaza.” This is a big problem for the group. This alliance had previously given Hezbollah a certain legitimacy.
If Israel continues with its assassinations at this pace, it will exterminate the group in a year or two
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib
Hence, the group is now alienated domestically and has somehow lost legitimacy. It is considered a terrorist group by many Arab countries, meaning it has no Arab legitimacy. Israel has also been conducting successful assassination operations.
Israel has killed about 350 Hezbollah operatives since Oct. 7. In its military doctrine, it has a concept known as “Mabam,” which means the war between wars. It basically relies on assassinations and attacks on specific targets to weaken the capabilities of the enemy. If Israel continues with its assassinations at this pace, it will exterminate the group in a year or two. Hezbollah cannot sit idly by and see its members killed one by one. Basically, it finds itself pushed into a corner and this is very dangerous. Desperate people take desperate measures.
Also, one should not underestimate Hezbollah’s psyche. The group is ideological. it preaches self-sacrifice. It would put up a fight even if it knew it was going to lose; even if Israel were to kill every single member. In its mentality, that would not be the end but a new beginning for a new generation that will be stronger and more committed to the fight. Hence, it would rather fight than capitulate. This is very dangerous for everyone.
If Hezbollah were to reach this point of no return, its aim would be to inflict as much damage as possible on its enemy, regardless of what would happen to it or to Lebanon. This would go beyond the mutual destruction of Beirut and Tel Aviv. This would mean a regional war that would suck in Iran and the US.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Tuesday said that the war’s “center of gravity” is gradually moving from Gaza to Israel’s northern front. Lebanon is in real danger. The Lebanese factions that are attacking Hezbollah should think through whether they love their country more than they hate Hezbollah. This is the time to negotiate with Hezbollah. It needs guarantees from the different factions — guarantees that it will not be stabbed in the back if it needs to make some compromises.
The Lebanese opposition, the US and Arab countries should all work on preventing a confrontation
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib
Hezbollah is saying that the issue of electing a president will be adjourned until after a ceasefire. However, other Lebanese groups should press for the election of a president that can maintain the balance between Hezbollah and the rest of the factions. It is time for both Hezbollah and the opposition to give up on their own candidates and agree on a third-party candidate. This would lead to an internal settlement with Hezbollah and appease the public anger against the group.
Regarding the fight with Israel, UN Security Council Resolution 1701 should include a security guarantor that can create a solid buffer between Hezbollah and Israel. I have alluded in my previous articles to the need to have a strong state within the UNIFIL to take the role of the security garantor. A state that both Hezbollah, Iran, and Israel would not want to upset. This guarantor will make sure that the Lebanese side is calm and that Hezbollah keeps its weapons in the basement, while also making sure that Lebanese airspace is protected from Israeli drones and warplanes. Here, the US should pressure Israel to stop its series of assassination.
The Lebanese opposition, the US and Arab countries should all work on preventing a confrontation that would be catastrophic for everyone. To do so, they should engage with Hezbollah. And they should remember that diplomacy is the art of talking to your enemies.
• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.
