Iran appears to be restraining its proxies — for now

As Lebanese of all religious and sectarian denominations in this fractured nation remember with dread, the last war between Hezbollah and Israeli forces took place in July and August 2006. It is ironic that they now find themselves close to a new full-blown conflict between the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia and Israel. Tensions have been simmering dangerously, waiting to explode into yet another all-out war following more than 10 months of serious cross-border attacks, special operations, drone strikes and targeted killings and assassinations, all triggered by the Gaza war.
However, despite the overwhelming number of indicators pointing toward a new direct and widespread conflict, I am minded to believe that Hezbollah’s calculations and those of its paymasters in the Iranian government are to preserve the group’s infrastructure and forces as a more useful card for future negotiations or as a deterrent. It would prefer to live to fight another day.
Though the assassinations of Fouad Shukr of Hezbollah and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on successive days at the end of last month dealt Iran and its so-called axis of resistance a severe double blow, both operationally and reputationally, large-scale retaliatory strikes against Israel are likely to come at a price Iran does not seem ready to pay at this moment.
The heightened threats and counter-threats — like Hezbollah’s recent display of one of its supposedly secret tunnels in Lebanon, the US military buildup and aircraft carrier strike group being rushed to the Mediterranean as a deterrent, and the Iranian military’s posturing and promises to retaliate — might be the only game in town. It also seems that the tit-for-tat strikes, which are largely restricted to the confines of the Lebanese-Israeli border, continue to be tolerated.
It has recently been feared that the regular exchanges of fire with Israel would escalate into an all-out war that would pulverize large parts of Lebanon, as repeatedly promised by the Israeli leadership. This could prove catastrophic for a country suffering from a void in its political leadership, an economic meltdown since 2019 and a society that is, to a large extent, surviving on the bare minimum of international handouts, supplemented by expatriates’ remittances to families and friends. While a large part of the country holds Hezbollah and its Iran-induced political choices responsible for the miserable fate of Lebanon, many are certain the country will not be able to withstand a destructive Israeli war similar to its assault on Gaza.
When asked about the likelihood of an all-out war between Hezbollah and Israel, many Lebanese often shrug their shoulders and ask: when was there peace in the first place? For them, it is evident that Lebanon is already at war. Cross-border violence since Oct. 7 has killed 585 people in Lebanon, including at least 128 civilians, according to an AFP tally. It has also displaced more than 100,000 Lebanese from areas close to the southern border with Israel. On the Israeli side, including the occupied Golan Heights, 23 soldiers and 26 civilians have been killed, according to army figures, in addition to a similar number of Israelis being displaced from their homes in northern Israel.
No one doubts that Lebanon, like the region as a whole, is a tinderbox waiting to ignite. But several factors continue to indicate that both Israel and Iran are guarded against throwing their weight into an all-out war that would threaten them both existentially.
Israel, which continues to assert its superior weaponry, intelligence gathering and operational reach, is aware that its limited territorial depth could make defending its airspace for an extended period of time hazardous. It could suffer in the face of a conventional, low-tech, coordinated and multifront axis of resistance attack from Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
On the other side, Hezbollah, like other Iran-backed militias, would be unlikely to act alone and drive an agenda that backfires on its financier and patron. For decades, Iran’s doctrine has favored pushing insecurity away from its borders by fighting its adversaries and enemies asymmetrically, often in a deniable fashion, and avoiding at all costs the lighting of fires on its own territory.
Many experts agree that recent attacks have exposed Iran’s nonexistent air cover, even around strategic installations such as its heavily guarded nuclear program sites. For example, Tel Aviv struck air defense batteries deep into central Iran in response to Tehran’s April 13 drone and missile attack on Israeli territory.
Iranian territories have subsequently been in the crosshairs of Israeli weaponry, which is uncomfortable for Tehran. What is most important for Iran is its absolute fear of the fragile legitimacy of its theocratic regime being shaken domestically. The 2022-23 protests against the imposition of the veil on women and the subsequent heavy-handed approach to suffocating them have not been forgotten by a large section of the population, who have suffered from decades of sanctions, perennially poor economic performance, dwindling public services and widespread corruption. Any direct attacks on Iran proper could further expose that fragility — a risk that the regime is not willing to take.

Large-scale retaliatory strikes against Israel are likely to come at a price Iran does not seem ready to pay.

Mohamed Chebaro

Despite its efforts to present itself as a group defending Lebanese interests, Hezbollah’s leadership never shies away from reminding everyone that its forces are a mere division or a brigade fighting under the Iranian supreme leader’s orders. And recent events in Gaza have further exposed those links to Tehran, through the “unity of fronts” in support of the Strip.
I still believe, however, that the wider war has not yet exploded because Tehran continues to hold tightly the reins of the horses that are pulling the chariot of its interests in the region. Those horses are the Iran-backed militias in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, as described by Andrew Tabler, a former director for Syria at the US National Security Council’s Middle East Affairs Directorate. Iran definitely holds the reins and its allies categorically dance to its tune, whether they like it or not. And the music coming out of Tehran today is signaling restraint and survival in the hope of fighting another day. Maybe.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.