Time to recognize that few Israelis want a two-state solution
https://arab.news/ny6g4
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on his ninth trip to the Middle East since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. While his immediate focus is on achieving a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and preventing a broader regional escalation, Blinken and the Biden administration that he represents continue to insist that a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is possible and desirable. However, America’s calls for progress toward a two-state solution continue to hit obstacles, including the reality that the idea no longer has much support in Israel.
Support for a two-state solution among the Israeli public has been in decline for years and it was further eroded by the Oct. 7 attack. Polling by the Pew Research Center found that, in spring 2023, only 35 percent of Israelis believed that it was possible for an Israeli state and a Palestinian state to “coexist peacefully.” In the spring of this year, that number had dropped to 26 percent. Even more notably, this year, only 19 percent of Jewish Israelis said they believed such coexistence was possible, compared to 49 percent of Palestinian citizens of Israel.
Gallup polling from 2012 and 2023 — the latter conducted shortly after the Oct. 7 attack — asked Israelis: “Would you support or not support a situation in which an independent Palestinian State existed alongside an independent State of Israel?” In 2012, 61 percent of Israelis said they would support that, but in 2023 support had dropped to 25 percent. In 2023, in fact, 65 percent of Israelis said that they would oppose a Palestinian state existing next to Israel. Similarly, a survey by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 63 percent of Jewish Israelis do not support the idea of an independent (though demilitarized) Palestinian state.
Such polls have found differences along political, ideological and religious lines, as well as the divide between Jewish and Palestinian citizens. Polls have consistently found that Israelis who identify with more left-wing politics are more likely to support a two-state approach, while centrists are significantly less likely to support it and right-wing Israelis tend to strongly oppose the idea.
Among Jewish Israelis, secular Israelis are more likely than religious Israelis to remain open to a Palestinian state. These differences are important, but left-wing Israelis have lost much of their influence and centrist and right-wing viewpoints are more likely to hold sway in current Israeli politics. Furthermore, even among left-wing Israelis, support for a two-state approach has weakened.
Public opinion is reflected in political leaders’ decisions and they have made it clear that there is strong opposition to and little support for the idea of a Palestinian state. In July, the Knesset voted 68 to nine to pass a resolution that “firmly opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state west of Jordan.” The resolution also stated: “The establishment of a Palestinian state in the heart of the Land of Israel will pose an existential danger to the State of Israel and its citizens.”
Right-wing parties, including in the ruling coalition, sponsored the resolution. The centrist National Unity party led by Benny Gantz, who some Western countries hope might provide a counterweight to right-wing leaders, voted for it. Importantly, the center-left Yesh Atid party (led by opposition leader Yair Lapid) and the Labor Party chose not to vote, thus avoiding taking a stand on the issue. The only votes against the resolution came from Arab-majority parties. When even Israel’s more left-wing parties refuse to vote against such a statement, it is a clear sign that there is no serious political support for a two-state solution left in Israel.
Furthermore, the Israeli leaders who are currently in power publicly reject a two-state solution and the idea of a viable Palestinian state. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu all openly oppose a Palestinian state. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is more cautious in his public statements, but his long-standing support for Israeli settlement in the West Bank and other aspects of his record clearly suggest that he would not support the creation of an independent Palestinian state.
Support for a two-state solution among the Israeli public has been in decline for years and it was further eroded by Oct. 7.
Kerry Boyd Anderson
Looking over the history of the Oslo Accords and various efforts to move toward a two-state solution, one might reasonably question whether there was ever serious Israeli support for creating a Palestinian state. There was a time — especially between 2007 and 2012 — when a majority of Israelis said that they supported the idea. Some Israeli leaders believed that they had worked hard to negotiate with the Palestinians. However, while many Israelis supported the idea, few of their leaders were ever willing to make the compromises that might have led to a viable two-state solution. At the same time, other leaders, such as Netanyahu, actively worked to undermine any efforts toward peace or a Palestinian state.
Of course, it is important to also consider polling on Palestinian attitudes toward a two-state solution and the steps that Palestinian leaders have or have not taken in pursuit of peace. Nonetheless, Israel has always been by far the more powerful party in the conflict and thus the future of a two-state solution heavily depends on Israeli leaders and Israeli voters.
The reality is that few Israelis today want a two-state solution or believe it is possible. Even fewer would be willing to spend political capital in a good-faith effort to achieve it. The Biden administration and other interested parties should recognize and adapt to that reality rather than trying to wish it away.
- Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 18 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica. X: @KBAresearch
