Why world leaders and many Israelis believe Netanyahu is avoiding a deal

Even before the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh last week, many Israelis and international observers believed that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was prioritizing his own political interests over a deal to free Israeli hostages still held in Gaza. While many Israelis celebrate Haniyeh’s death, there is also concern that a crucial opportunity is slipping away.
The fate of the hostages who remain in Gaza has created a public rift in Israeli society. Some Israeli media outlets have criticized Netanyahu for setting up obstacles to a deal. Large protests, often led by family members of hostages, have directed anger against the Israeli leader and his government for leaving around 115 captives in Gaza — a number that includes more than 40 who are confirmed to or likely to have died. When Netanyahu visited Washington late last month and spoke before Congress, one former hostage and several hostages’ family members traveled with him as part of his entourage, but other hostages’ family members traveled separately to openly protest against the prime minister and demand a deal to release the captives.
Polling suggests that many Israelis believe that Netanyahu is putting his own interests above a deal to free the hostages. A poll published in Israeli media last month found that 54 percent of Israelis said the Gaza war has not yet ended because of Netanyahu’s own political calculations. The same poll found that 67 percent of Israeli respondents believe that ensuring the hostages’ return should be the priority, while only 26 percent said that continuing the war was more important.
There are multiple reasons to question Netanyahu’s commitment to releasing the hostages through diplomacy. The prime minister, who has been in office longer than any other Israeli leader, wants to stay in power, and his right-wing coalition could collapse if he agrees to a deal with Hamas. Netanyahu also faces trials for corruption and potential jail time; the longer he remains prime minister, the more opportunity he has to delay and undermine the prosecution. Public support for Netanyahu declined after the attack, and he knows that military victories could rehabilitate his image, giving him another reason to prolong the conflict.
Furthermore, Netanyahu has long held an ideology that emphasizes Israeli military power and control of territory. For years, he strung along Western leaders by suggesting that he was open to a two-state solution, while using his position to spoil any such outcome. His approach to a deal with Hamas appears to be following the same playbook.

Netanyahu believes that continuing the war in some form will allow him to hold onto power until his popularity rebounds once again. 

Kerry Boyd Anderson

The prime minister’s actions reinforce the idea that he is avoiding a deal. On May 31, US President Joe Biden publicly presented a potential agreement that he said came from the Israelis; his speech provided an opportunity — and pressure — for Netanyahu to agree, but he did not. More recently, the Israeli leader added new conditions to an agreement that was under discussion.
The assassination of Haniyeh occurred within this broader context. The move is likely to improve Netanyahu’s popularity within Israel, at least temporarily. It also helps to undermine negotiations. Many global leaders have noted that killing Haniyeh, a key negotiator in talks toward a ceasefire that would include the hostages’ release, was hardly a sign that the Israeli government sincerely wants a deal. From Biden’s understated quote that killing Haniyeh “doesn’t help” negotiations to Qatar’s prime minister asking, “how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?”, the global reaction clearly saw the assassination as an indication that Israel is prioritizing its fight against Hamas over negotiations.
The reaction in Israel is more mixed. According to media reports, a poll by the Lazar Institute found that 69 percent of Israelis support such assassinations, even if it means delaying talks to release hostages. Many Israelis celebrated the assassination. However, protests calling for a deal to release the hostages have continued, and some Israelis, including some family members of hostages, have expressed concern that the assassination makes it more difficult to bring the captives home. In recent days, reports have emerged about intensifying disagreements between Netanyahu and Israeli intelligence and security officials over negotiations; media reports say that several such officials accused Netanyahu of trying to sabotage a deal.
It is important to note that while many Israelis feel anger toward their government and worry about the hostages, that does not mean that they oppose the war itself. Polling by the Pew Research Center in March and April found that only 4 percent of Jewish Israelis agreed that “Israel’s military response against Hamas in Gaza has gone too far,” compared with 74 percent of Israeli Arabs who said the war had gone too far. Thousands of protesters have frequently turned out to support the hostages’ families and demands for a deal to release them, but far fewer have protested against Israeli military action and the extreme level of destruction in Gaza.
While there are Israelis, Palestinians, and international leaders who very much want a deal that includes a ceasefire, the release of Palestinian prisoners, and the freeing of Israeli hostages, it appears that Netanyahu has no interest. He believes that continuing the war in some form will allow him to hold onto power until his popularity rebounds once again. In his approach to negotiations and to Israeli politics, he is using an old playbook that has worked for him many times before.

• Kerry Boyd Anderson is an analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. X: @KBAresearch