Pezeshkian’s major challenges as Iranian president

Masoud Pezeshkian was this week officially inaugurated as the ninth president of Iran by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei after taking the oath in parliament. He faces several significant challenges domestically, regionally and globally. What are these major challenges and what are the prospects of him effectively addressing them?

The most pressing challenge is related to the economic situation and the living standards of ordinary Iranians. The recent presidential and parliamentary elections in Iran saw a historically low voter turnout. Several factors contributed to this low engagement, with widespread dissatisfaction over the economic situation being one of the primary reasons.

It should be noted that the country has been struggling with high inflation and substantial unemployment, leading to significant public discontent. In July, the official annual inflation rate in Iran was reported to be 47.5 percent, which is the highest in more than three decades. These economic difficulties have severely affected ordinary Iranians, with a sharp decline in purchasing power due to the devaluation of the national currency exacerbating the problem. Many people are now living below the poverty line and these financial hardships likely deterred them from voting, as they felt their participation would not lead to the necessary economic reforms.

The second major challenge is the widespread sense of sociopolitical dissatisfaction among the Iranian population. This is most likely linked to the imposition of strict religious laws, particularly those affecting women, which has previously sparked widespread protests and international concern. The sociopolitical landscape in Iran is dominated by conservative and hard-line ideologies, which many citizens view as disconnected from their contemporary societal values.

The Iranian government frequently attributes the country’s economic problems to sanctions imposed by the West, particularly the US. However, many Iranians argue that, given the country’s wealth in terms of natural resources, economic mismanagement and a lack of accountability in resource management are the true causes of their economic hardships.

For example, Tehran economist Morteza Afghah believes the core issue stems from the regime’s focus on ideological and political priorities over economic development. He told local media: “The reality is that, over the past three decades since the end of the (Iran-Iraq) war, the country’s economy has been mismanaged. Economic problems have multiplied and economic and social indicators have deteriorated. The reason for this is deeper than even economic policies.”

On the global stage, a critical issue is Iran’s nuclear program and the potential revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal. Tensions with the West have escalated due to Tehran’s ongoing advancement of its nuclear activities, with the Islamic Republic not fully cooperating with the International Atomic Energy Agency. According to the latest report from the UN nuclear watchdog, Iran has swiftly added additional uranium enrichment centrifuges at its Fordow facility and has started the installation of even more. There is a widespread belief that Iran could soon become a nuclear state.

One of Pezeshkian’s campaign promises was to improve relations with the West in a bid to ease sanctions. However, this would require addressing concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and complying with IAEA regulations.

The most pressing challenge is related to the economic situation and the living standards of ordinary Iranians

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

During a quarterly session in Vienna in June, the IAEA’s 35-member Board of Governors passed a resolution criticizing Iran for breaching nonproliferation agreements. The resolution urges Iran to roll back its alarming nuclear advancements, reestablish IAEA oversight, reinstate the credentials of key inspectors and adhere to its commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. This includes cooperating fully with the IAEA investigation into alleged nuclear weapons activities in Iran.

Another significant challenge is the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. In a highly significant event, Hamas’ top political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Iran on Wednesday, sparking concerns of a possible escalation to a full-scale war between Israel and Iran, which could turn into a regional conflagration.

These tensions also spiraled out of control earlier this year, leading to direct confrontations between the two rivals before reverting to an indirect but intensified conflict. A war between Iran and Israel would have severe repercussions for Tehran and the region. For Iran, such a conflict would likely lead to devastating economic and infrastructural damage, exacerbating existing economic hardships and potentially destabilizing the government. Regionally, a war could disrupt the delicate balance of power in the Middle East, leading to widespread instability. It could draw in neighboring countries and global powers, potentially escalating into a larger regional or even international conflict.

Expectations that Pezeshkian will be able to address these challenges effectively are not high. Iran’s domestic and foreign policies are primarily influenced by two powerful entities: Khamenei and the senior leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The IRGC wields significant influence across various economic sectors, including telecommunications, manufacturing and shipping, while shaping both domestic and foreign policies.

The role of Iran’s president is largely to advance the geopolitical, strategic and ideological interests of the supreme leader and the IRGC. The president sets the tone domestically and internationally, facilitating the execution of the regime’s top priorities and agenda.

In a nutshell, Iran’s new president faces numerous challenges on the domestic, regional and global fronts. While the expectations are high for his administration to tackle pressing issues such as economic instability, sociopolitical dissatisfaction and international relations, there is limited optimism regarding his capacity or authority to effect meaningful change and to fully address the country’s significant policy challenges.

The entrenched influence of some particular conservative elements within the country’s power structure, such as the supreme leader and the IRGC, complicates the implementation of fundamental and significant policy reforms. As a result, in spite of the critical need for change and progress, Pezeshkian’s ability to potentially navigate these challenges and deliver substantial results remains uncertain.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh