Israel and the limits of fire
https://arab.news/ybp5h
What went on in Benjamin Netanyahu’s head on his flight back from the US? The conclusions he reached in the US will impact the entire region, including Lebanon and Gaza. Did he conclude that he had mended his ties with the US after holding talks with Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, despite some reservations?
Does Netanyahu believe that he received the green light to continue the wars? Does he believe that the months that separate us from the election of a new American president are an opportunity to finish the job in Gaza? Does he think that what took place in Majdal Shams in the occupied Golan Heights gives him the opportunity to pursue a similar job on the Lebanese front?
The members of Congress applauded the Israeli visitor, who now holds the record for the number of times he has addressed them. However, the number of vacant seats was obvious. Harris, who is busy with her presidential campaign, did not deem it necessary to attend and listen to Netanyahu’s speech.
Did the visitor sense that America may have changed, even just a little bit? Did he sense that what has taken place on the streets and at university campuses was not a passing event and that the days of America’s absolute support are over?
It is hard to guess what went on in Netanyahu’s head. There are fears that the strike on Majdal Shams was a prime opportunity — that may not happen again — to replicate the scenes in Gaza in Lebanon, or at least on the Lebanese border with Israel. These are the fears of people who believe it is an opportunity to wage a battle to return 100,000 Israelis to the settlements and villages they evacuated due to the attacks Hezbollah launched in the wake of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation.
Netanyahu is aware that the time of lightning wars is completely over. Israel is no longer capable of declaring an end to a war through a mighty deadly strike. The type of combatants has changed and so has the nature of war. Netanyahu also knows that the Lebanese front has been and continues to be more dangerous than the Gaza front. He knows that Hezbollah boasts a much larger arsenal than Hamas.
He also knows that an attack on Hezbollah would bring Israel closer to war with Iran itself. He knows that Tehran would not tolerate the same assault that Israel has waged on Hamas being launched against Hezbollah. He knows that the front lines for war with Hezbollah stretch from southern Lebanon to Tehran. He knows that the involvement of countries that have supported Hamas during the Gaza war will double when it comes to Hezbollah.
Netanyahu knows that the front lines for war with Hezbollah stretch from southern Lebanon to Tehran.
Ghassan Charbel
The Lebanese people have, in recent months, heard alarming Israeli threats. Some have confirmed Israel’s ability to replicate the horrors of Gaza in Beirut. Some have spoken of the Israeli army’s ability to return Lebanon to the Stone Age. The threats have not — with a few exceptions — been translated into actions that have gone beyond the rules of engagement. Washington has succeeded in making Israel commit to refraining from sparking a broad regional war.
The Majdal Shams strike has prompted the extremists in Netanyahu’s government to demand that the prime minister wage an all-out war against Lebanon. They have even demanded that Beirut be razed to the ground. The Israelis displaced from the north have accused Netanyahu of disregarding their plight. Others speak of Israel becoming an unsafe country, with many of its residents seeking other countries for security in a sign of reverse migration.
Should it happen, a war on Lebanon would not be a walk in the park for Israel. Hezbollah has, in recent months, provided an example of its arsenal that is much different than what it possessed in the 2006 war. In return, Israel has demonstrated its technological superiority by killing hundreds of Hezbollah fighters. It may not be a cakewalk for Israel, but it will be catastrophic for Lebanon.
Lebanon is weak on all levels. Its institutions are crumbling. Its people have grown accustomed to the vacuum in the presidency. The parliament is almost crippled and the caretaker government is paralyzed. The Lebanese people are divided over numerous issues, including the war between Hezbollah and Israel, as they sink deeper into poverty and are lured more and more to emigration.
The Lebanese state is no longer a serious player, either in the south or in Beirut. A large segment of the people believe that Lebanon has been forced to take on a regional role that is beyond its means. In recent months, it has been incapable of applying the same de-escalation policy that Syria succeeded in implementing to avoid a wider war. Many believe that if the war on Gaza is greater than Gaza, then any wider war on Lebanon will be much greater than Lebanon.
What went on in Netanyahu’s head when he returned to Israel? Will he spark a major, yet limited, fire the way he did with the Houthis? Or does he believe that Israel cannot coexist with Hezbollah’s arsenal on its border? The calls to act against Lebanon are not limited to his camp, as they have also risen from the opposition.
The coming days will prove whether the US, which is lost between Harris and Trump, is still capable of upholding its decision to prevent a regional war from erupting. It will prove whether it can speed up an end to the war in Gaza in the hope that it will also end the wars that have emerged across several countries.
Dousing the flames demands a complicated tango between the US and Iran. Is the latter prepared to help in putting out the fires? By what means and at what price?
- Ghassan Charbel is editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. X: @GhasanCharbel
- This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.
