Israel-Iran shadow war could spiral out of control

The shadow war between Israel and Iran continues to escalate and expand, posing serious risks not only to these two countries but also to other nations in the Middle East.
Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah, and Israel have recently intensified their attacks on each other, including a series of Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory on Saturday night after Tel Aviv accused the group of carrying out a deadly attack on a football pitch in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
Tehran has warned that an Israeli invasion of Lebanon would trigger an “obliterating war.” Iran’s mission to the UN last month stated that Tehran views Israel’s warnings of military action in Lebanon as “psychological warfare,” adding: “should it embark on full-scale military aggression, an obliterating war will ensue.”
The confrontation between Israel and Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq has also escalated significantly, with a marked increase in rocket and missile attacks. This intensification raises concerns about the potential for heightened retaliatory actions and the risk of broader regional escalation. In addition, the tensions between Israel and the Houthis in Yemen have increased, leading to a dramatic rise in aggressive activities. The Houthis last week carried out an attack on Tel Aviv, Israel, resulting in one fatality and at least 10 injuries. This assault was the Houthis’ first deadly strike on Israeli territory.
In response, Israel bombed sites in Yemen reportedly linked to the Iran-backed group. These tensions have also affected other countries, as the Houthis have expanded their offensive operations aimed at disrupting maritime traffic. They have reportedly carried out more than 60 attacks on ships navigating the Red Sea since November and have issued explicit threats against vessels traveling to Israel. This has exacerbated tensions in the region and caused significant disruptions for commercial maritime traffic. Ships are increasingly unable to acquire insurance and are being forced to detour around the African continent.
The Iranian leaders are no longer hiding behind their proxies, making it clear that any expansion of attacks against their proxies will be met with a harsh response. The Israeli leaders, meanwhile, believe that Iran is behind these tensions and that Tehran aims to increase its influence in more countries in the region. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the US Congress last week: “Tehran is fighting us on a seven-front war: obviously, Hamas, Hezbollah, as well as the Houthis, the militias in Iraq and Syria, the West Bank, and Iran itself.”

Tehran has warned that an Israeli invasion of Lebanon would trigger an ‘obliterating war.’ 

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

The shadow war between Iran and Israel did lead to a limited but significant direct confrontation between the two countries a few months ago. On April 1, Israel launched a surprise attack on an Iranian diplomatic complex in Damascus, Syria. This strike resulted in the deaths of several senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials, marking a serious escalation in hostilities. In retaliation, Iran and its proxies seized the Israeli-linked ship MSC Aries and launched a series of strikes inside Israeli territory nearly two weeks after the initial attack. Israel responded with further military action, targeting sites in Iran, including the city of Isfahan, and launching additional strikes in Syria. This sequence of events highlights the fragile and volatile nature of the current situation, in which each side’s actions could easily lead to unintended and potentially catastrophic consequences.
Nevertheless, following the limited direct confrontation, the two countries resumed their shadow war, but this time on a much broader and more intense scale. This conflict has reached a new level, with heightened involvement and increased aggression, further exacerbating regional instability.
Strategically and politically, it is in neither Israel’s nor Iran’s interest to engage in a full-fledged war for several reasons. Israel doubts it has the full backing of the US, as the Biden administration has made it clear that it favors de-escalation. It discouraged Israel from responding to Iran after the latter launched ballistic missiles and drones into Israel. In addition, the Biden administration most likely believes that becoming involved in a war in the Middle East could negatively impact the Democrats’ chances of winning the presidential election in November.
On the Iranian side, the government is grappling with domestic and economic pressures, including high inflation and unemployment. The low voter turnout in recent presidential and parliamentary elections points to public dissatisfaction with the status quo. Moreover, militarily speaking, Israel is believed to possess hundreds of nuclear weapons. In a full-scale war, all options might be considered, which would not be in the Iranian government’s best interest.
In other words, strategic and political considerations do not currently point to a direct war between these two countries. However, while both nations might prefer a shadow war over a direct conflict, tensions could spiral out of control, leading to a direct war. Not every action can be controlled or contained in such a proxy conflict, as history has shown with other conflicts that have escalated unexpectedly. For example, the Vietnam War initially began as a limited conflict, with US support for South Vietnam, but it escalated into a full-scale war involving major powers, resulting in significant regional and global consequences.
While a full-scale direct war between Israel and Iran seems unlikely when considering the strategic and political factors, there is still a very high risk that escalating tensions could lead to a broader conflict. Such a development would negatively impact other countries in the Middle East and jeopardize the region’s stability and security, making it a situation to avoid at all costs.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh