Syrian refugees face uncertain future

The future for refugees is never easy, not least in a world where richer states are ever more hostile to hosting them and even indifferent to their safety. As wars are also so often never-ending, so too refugees face never-ending exile. Yet arguably an even worse fate is being forcibly being sent back to the countries from which they fled.
This is a fate that many Syrians are now facing in Lebanon and, perhaps more alarmingly and on a greater scale, in Turkiye. This came into focus at the start of this month, when violence against Syrian refugees erupted in a number of Turkish cities, especially Gaziantep, Istanbul and Kayseri. Syrians have told me they now fear leaving their homes or showing anything written in Arabic. One said that Syrians have taken to saying they are Palestinians, tapping into the Turkish solidarity with Gaza.
Why is this happening now, given that Syrian refugees have been in Turkiye for years?
Let us be clear. Racism against Syrian refugees in Turkiye is not new, particularly since 2019 and with an escalation since 2022. The earthquake of February 2023 also triggered a sharp rise in hate crimes against Syrians.
Past attacks on Syrian refugees tended to not necessarily be part of a pattern. What terrifies Syrians now is that there is planning to some of the attacks, with several stores being targeted by ultranationalist Turks. Syrians complain that there has been no restitution for the destruction or vandalism of their property. They seek accountability and guarantees for their future safety. They want the Turkish authorities to take a clear stand against hate speech in Turkiye.

Scarily, last week there was a huge data leak of all the names and addresses of Syrians in the country. Opinions are divided as to why. Was this just because Turkiye has weak data protection, allowing the details to be hacked, or was it a deliberate strategy? What is true is that people specifically started sharing the data, including addresses and passport and banking details, of 3.6 million Syrians.

Slowly but surely, the Syrian leadership has worked its way back into the lifeblood of Middle Eastern politics.

Chris Doyle

Will this spiral out of control inside the country? It is quite possible. The popular mood in Turkiye is certainly in support of action to see the back of the refugees. The burden of hosting 3.6 million Syrian refugees has exhausted patience among the Turkish population. More Syrian refugees are now looking to cross into Europe, usually on boats to Greek islands. Here too, tensions with host communities are heating up.
All Syrians believe Turkiye wants to send them back to Syria. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has drawn up plans to resettle up to a million refugees in a “safe zone” inside Syria. Reports of tens of people being deported five years ago have now turned into hundreds every day. Those Syrians affected are compelled to sign a “voluntary” return form in Turkish. One told me that the document was neither explained nor translated for them.
This also impacts the situation inside northern Syria, in the areas directly or indirectly controlled by Turkiye. In areas where Turkish support had once been welcomed, Turkish military points have been attacked and Turkish soldiers have fired at protesters, on occasion killing them, for example in Afrin.
All of this comes against the backdrop of a slight realignment of Syrian-Turkish relations. Slowly but surely, the Syrian leadership has worked its way back into the lifeblood of Middle Eastern politics. Accepted back into the fold of the Arab League in 2023, relations have been restored, if not fully healed, with most of its neighbors and it looks like Turkiye could be next. The signs are that a thaw is on its way.
Erdogan’s priorities have changed. For years, Turkiye was the center of armed opposition to the Assad regime. Recently, other issues have dominated his horizon, not least the Kurdish issue and, of course, the Russia-Ukraine war.
Rapprochement hints started in about 2022. Erdogan is aware that there is public pressure to start negotiations with the Syrian authorities. The opposition Republican People’s Party has been very vocal about this. Russia and Iraq are also pushing for it. Many see this as being more serious today than it was in the past.
It will not be a smooth path. Bashar Assad and Erdogan are not likely to have a summit just yet, despite Erdogan declaring this month that he could invite Assad to Turkiye “at any moment.” Assad has made it clear that all Turkish forces will need to leave Syria. Yet the direction has been set and, with every step closer, millions of Syrian refugees will be fearing the consequences.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech