US resolve remains strong despite election uncertainty
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During the NATO Summit celebrating the alliance’s 75th birthday in Washington last week, I attended the Munich Security Conference’s reception on the sidelines. Washington turned out for the conference in force, from American officials to members of Congress and think tank staffers. Foreign and defense ministers from Europe, foreign policy advisers and the leaders of global security and defense establishments all had one thing on their mind: the American election campaign and President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance.
The questions that occupied them were whether Biden would drop out of the race, whether former President Donald Trump would win the election and what would this mean for the future of NATO. The presence of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made her the center of attention. Everyone wanted to ask her what would happen to the president amid reports that she was huddling with former President Barack Obama and discussing the future of Biden as a candidate for the Democratic Party.
The NATO Summit came in the middle of a historic presidential election campaign that is without precedent — even before Saturday’s assassination attempt on Trump. From the deep divisions in the country to the split in the president’s party, with calls on him to withdraw from the race only four months before the election, America’s political resilience is being tested like never before. These divisions are not only about who is fit to win the election and govern, they are also about America’s role in the world and its leadership of alliances like NATO.
The two candidates, President Biden and former President Trump, used the NATO Summit for their own political gains in the campaign. Biden described the alliance as the greatest “in the history of the world.” But during his press conference after the end of the summit, Biden, in defending his position to stay in the race despite the calls for him to drop out, including by members of his own party, said that none of the European allies told him: “Joe, don’t run. What I hear them say is, ‘you gotta win, you can’t have this guy (Trump) come forward, he’d be a disaster, he’d be a disaster.’”
The president’s critics jumped on this remark, saying this was unusual and a political mistake, predicting that it will be used against him by the Republican campaign. The president also said that his polling numbers were better in Israel than in the US, showing his disappointment in the polls that have recently shown him trailing Trump.
Trump was not at the NATO Summit or in Washington, but his shadow loomed large over the summit and the participants. Everybody you talked to wanted to know if he would win the election because of his views on NATO and the Europeans’ experience with him during his presidency. The former president was campaigning in Florida when he commented on the summit in Washington. He said: “I didn’t know what the hell NATO was too much for. But it didn’t take me long to figure it out, like about two minutes. And the first thing I figured out was they were not paying. We were paying, we were paying almost fully for NATO. And I said, ‘That’s unfair.’”
He told the rally how he warned America’s NATO allies that they have to meet their military spending obligations otherwise he would not defend them. NATO members are required to contribute at least 2 percent of their gross domestic product to defense spending each year. To Trump’s credit, his strategy worked and the allies have started adhering to this required contribution.
Biden attacked him last week as someone who does not understand the value of the alliance, taking the credit because the heads of state at the summit thanked the US and him personally for “all that NATO has achieved.” He compared this to his opponent, saying that, “meanwhile, my predecessor has made it clear he has no commitment to NATO. He made it clear he would feel no obligation to honor Article 5 (mutual defense). He already told (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, and I quote, ‘do whatever the hell you want.’”
Foreign policy experts are calling the period between this month and next January the most dangerous period internationally.
Dr. Amal Mudallali
While many European allies privately expressed concern about the prospect of Trump’s return to the White House and what would that mean for them and NATO, they were “frantically working” while in Washington to reach out to Trump’s political allies, according to CNN, to establish connections and gain access to his potential foreign policy officials. They were eager to learn how Trump would deal with them and the alliance.
During their stay in Washington, NATO heads of state and their defense and foreign policy officials saw a divided America and a politically weak president, abandoned by many in his party and attacked by the media. It was a stark contrast to the picture of strength that the alliance wanted to project on the 75th anniversary of its founding.
Foreign policy experts are calling the period between this month and next January the most dangerous period internationally because the US and its global leadership is consumed with the election campaign. The calls for Biden to drop out — and the prospect of him dropping out at this late stage — are causing anxiety among allies who are already concerned because of the political weakness and unpredictability surrounding their ally and NATO leader.
There is also worry that, if Biden leaves the race, he will become weaker at home and abroad, with some even calling on the president to resign and saying it will be difficult for him to serve the rest of his term without harming American leadership around the world. What will happen to the Ukraine war? To the war in Gaza? And will Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu listen to an even weaker Biden when he did not listen to him nine months ago?
In his press conference on Thursday night, after the end of the NATO Summit, Biden expressed frustration at his inability to convince the Israelis not to “make the same mistake America made” in Afghanistan. He also talked about the difficulty of implementing some of his proposals in Gaza, so can one imagine his power to affect things when he is a lame duck president?
In a US News and World Report article reprinted by the Council on Foreign Relations, Liana Flix wrote that Biden dropping out of the race “could also embolden adversaries to test the strength of America’s resolve. That could mean another round of Iranian-backed Houthi rebel attacks on global shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden; a Russian escalation in Ukraine; an expanded threat from North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and its arms trade with Russia; or Chinese provocations toward Taiwan or the Philippines.” She concluded that a weaker president “perceived as unable to do his job leaves the West without a steersman in dangerous times.”
This is a pessimistic view of America’s resolve, even during a contested election campaign. America’s political divisions are real, as the failed attempt on Trump’s life demonstrates, but they still stop at the water’s edge. The campaign will be over in a few months, regardless of who wins, and the Americans, as the famous saying goes, “can always be trusted to do the right thing, once all other possibilities have been exhausted.”
• Dr. Amal Mudallali is a consultant on global issues, and former Lebanese ambassador to the UN.
