The shifting contours of a multipolar Middle East

Consensus is not always the natural outcome in discourse related to the Middle East. However, most theorists agree that the end of the Cold War profoundly reshaped the region’s geopolitics.
The transition reflected the broader global shift from a bipolar world during the Cold War to a more fragmented and diversified geopolitical landscape. This change left a vacuum that allowed the US to become the predominant power and set the stage for other nations to make their presence felt.
Around this time, countries in the Middle East began to assert more significant influence over regional politics, economies, and security matters. Their ambitions and actions contributed to a multipolar dynamic, in which several states wielded considerable power and pursued their interests, often independently or in competition.
Moreover, emerging global players, particularly China and Russia, contributed to what academic Patricia Karam calls “a burgeoning multipolar order in the Middle East.” Fluctuations in US foreign policy, including moments of retreat or strategic “pivots” away from the Middle East, created opportunities for other powers to fill the gaps.
While there are counterarguments to this premise, the increasing US focus on the Asia-Pacific region and Washington’s adoption of a more isolationist stance under certain administrations have fueled this perception by reducing the American footprint in the Middle East and allowing other powers to step in.
Rapid economic and social changes within the region have also played a role. The push for economic diversification, technological advancement, and social reform in some countries has shifted internal dynamics and external relationships, influencing the region’s multipolar nature.
Many Middle Eastern countries are making significant efforts to diversify their economies beyond a reliance on oil, thereby altering the region’s internal dynamics and external economic relationships, and contributing to this multipolar landscape.
It is apparent, then, that this transition to a multipolar region is the result of internal developments and broader global geopolitical shifts. The region is characterized by a complex web of security pacts and military alliances that often cross traditional lines of alliance. Moreover, sociopolitical movements and changes, from the Arab Spring to the ongoing reforms across the region, are also reshaping the internal dynamics of Middle Eastern states. These movements can alter the power balance within and between countries, influencing the multipolar structure of the region.

A multipolar region would probably perform better in building bridges, fostering peace, and driving progress. 

Ehtesham Shahid

A recent paper published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute posited that certain situations have persisted in the region even amid these transformations. As a result, the US and regional actors have continued to doggedly pursue their interests, often at the expense of their rivals.
This paper suggests that the Chinese doctrine of a multipolar Middle East became tangible with the evolution of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkiye, and Israel into middle powers with local and global interests. As a result, they have all pursued their own strategic interests, foreign policy objectives, and spheres of influence.
This regional transformation has led to a more complex and competitive landscape in which multiple powers vie for influence and collaborate in an ever-changing tapestry of relationships. However, multipolarity is neither exclusive nor new to the Middle East.
In contemporary geopolitics, identifying a strictly unipolar region, where a single state exercises dominant influence over all aspects of power (military, economic, and cultural) without any significant challenge from any other state, is increasingly rare, as a result of globalization, interdependence, and the rise of regional powers. Certain regions do however exhibit unipolar tendencies in specific aspects, or for a certain duration, due to the overwhelming influence of a particular country.
Notably, the Middle East also experienced multipolar dynamics even before the Cold War, with various powers exerting influence over the region throughout history. This multipolarity can be traced back to ancient times and continued through different epochs, including the medieval period, the Ottoman Empire, and the colonial era.
In their unique ways, each of these periods turned the region into a theater for competition to expand control and influence over strategic territories, resources, and trade routes. The resulting rivalries shaped the political, cultural, and religious landscapes in the Middle East.
Following the First World War, the region experienced a new form of multipolarity through the establishment of mandates under British and French control, and the rise of independent states. The Second World War intensified the strategic importance of the Middle East due to its oil resources and strategic location.
Throughout these periods, the Middle East was rarely dominated by a single power; instead, it often found itself at the intersection of competing interests and influences, both from within and outside the region.
This historical context underscores its long-standing multipolar characteristics, which have continued to evolve to the present day. Multipolarity perhaps suits the requirements of a region as complex as the Middle East, as middle and smaller powers can have significant influence in a multipolar world.
Bulgarian politician and diplomat Nickolay Mladenov appropriately describes middle powers as “the lynchpins of cooperation in the intricate tapestry of international relations, wielding their influence to build bridges, foster peace, and drive progress.”
He says they bring “diplomatic finesse and adaptability” to the fore. In the Middle East, this can be easier said than done. In these torrid times, however, a multipolar region would probably perform better in building bridges, fostering peace, and driving progress.

• Ehtesham Shahid is an Indian editor and researcher based in the UAE. X: @e2sham