We must prepare for Myanmar military regime’s collapse
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The recent success of rebels in Myanmar against the military marks a significant turning point in the country’s tumultuous history. The Arakan Army’s continued offensive through Rakhine State — it this month claimed victory in Ponnagyun, just 24 km east of the state capital, Sittwe — underscores the resilience and determination of the resistance forces. However, while these victories are commendable, they also illuminate the deepening crisis engulfing Myanmar.
Since October last year, the military regime has suffered substantial losses, losing numerous regional bases to resistance forces. The toll on the military has been profound, with a significant number of soldiers killed or wounded and morale plummeting to unprecedented lows. Reports suggest that many soldiers have surrendered or fled, revealing fractures within the military’s ranks.
The military’s purported strength of 350,000 troops appears to be inflated, with some estimates suggesting it might be only half to one-third of that figure. Last month’s introduction of mandatory conscription for the general public highlights the desperation within the military ranks. This move, targeting men aged 18 to 35, further underscores the military’s struggle to maintain its grip on power.
The announcement of mandatory conscription triggered a wave of fear and uncertainty, prompting thousands of people to attempt to flee into neighboring countries like Thailand. Others sought refuge by lining up for visas outside Western diplomatic missions in Yangon, highlighting the profound sense of insecurity gripping Myanmar’s populace.
The humanitarian toll of the conflict is staggering. More than 2.6 million people have been driven from their homes, with 660,000 displaced since the October offensive alone. The exodus of more than 95,000 refugees into neighboring countries reflects the magnitude of the crisis. Furthermore, more than 18 million people — a third of the population — are in dire need of urgent humanitarian assistance. The humanitarian crisis is worsening by the day, with countless lives hanging in the balance.
Urgent diplomatic intervention is needed to facilitate dialogue and negotiate a peaceful resolution to the conflict
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
Despite the apparent setbacks, the surprisingly rapid retreat of the military’s forces from key areas does not imply its imminent collapse. Instead, the military seems to be strategically withdrawing to more defensible positions, including major cities like Naypyitaw, indicating its intent to dig in for the long haul. This calculated move underscores the military’s resilience and its resolve to cling to power at any cost.
The success of the rebels in Myanmar against the military is a testament to the indomitable spirit of the people and their unwavering commitment to democracy and freedom. However, the road ahead remains fraught with challenges. The international community must ramp up efforts to support the resistance forces and alleviate the suffering of millions of displaced civilians. Urgent diplomatic intervention is needed to facilitate dialogue and negotiate a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
Myanmar stands at a crossroads, teetering on the brink of further violence and instability. The success of the rebels offers a glimmer of hope amid the darkness, but the path to peace and democracy remains uncertain. It is imperative that the international community stands in solidarity with the people of Myanmar and supports their quest for justice, freedom and democracy. Only through collective action can we pave the way for a brighter and more inclusive future for Myanmar and its people.
The potential collapse of the military regime in Myanmar heralds a moment of profound significance, marked by both promise and peril. Should such an event occur, it would unleash a cascade of transformations, reshaping the country’s political, social and economic landscape in ways both foreseeable and unforeseeable.
Only through collective action can we pave the way for a brighter and more inclusive future for Myanmar and its people
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
First and foremost, the collapse of the military regime would likely precipitate a power vacuum of unprecedented proportions. With the once-omnipotent military apparatus faltering, various factions, including ethnic groups, political parties and civil society organizations, would vie for control, intensifying competition and potentially sparking internal conflicts. The transition from authoritarian rule to a more democratic system would undoubtedly be fraught with challenges, as competing interests struggle for dominance in a rapidly evolving political landscape.
Moreover, the collapse of the military regime would likely exacerbate the already dire humanitarian crisis gripping Myanmar. Millions of internally displaced persons and refugees would require urgent assistance, further straining an already overstretched humanitarian infrastructure. Ensuring the safety and well-being of vulnerable populations would be paramount in the aftermath of regime collapse, necessitating swift and coordinated international intervention.
Economically, the collapse of the military regime could precipitate a period of profound uncertainty and instability. Myanmar’s economy, which is heavily reliant on foreign investment and trade, would likely experience significant turbulence as investors and businesses grapple with the uncertainty of the country’s future direction. Unemployment could soar, exacerbating poverty and social unrest, while the absence of a functioning government could hinder efforts to address pressing economic challenges.
Though it may be unlikely for now, the collapse of the military regime in Myanmar does hold the potential to usher in a new era of democratic governance and social progress. However, the road to a more inclusive and equitable future is fraught with obstacles and the path forward remains uncertain. It is imperative that both domestic and international stakeholders work together to navigate the complexities of the post-collapse landscape and chart a course toward a more peaceful and prosperous Myanmar for all its citizens.
- Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim
