The curious non-effect of Brexit on UK foreign policy
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After nearly four years of contentious negotiations, the UK left the EU on Jan. 31, 2020. As a result of the country’s decision to leave, Britain negotiated a series of new partnership agreements with the bloc, with new post-Brexit rules covering travel, border controls, trade in goods, and security, including agreements on crime and anti-terrorism measures.
These measures came about after a long period of stress across the English Channel and resentments in the aftermath of the UK’s withdrawal could have led to consequences in the respective foreign policies of London and Brussels. In spite of the contentions in the run-up to Brexit, however, the post-Brexit UK’s foreign policy has been broadly the same as when it was part of the EU family.
This is partly because recent geopolitical crises — including COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, the accompanying energy crisis and now the Israel-Gaza conflict — have affected all European nations in more or less the same way, pushing them to seek cooperation.
In January 2021, due to the Brexit transition, the UK Emissions Trading Scheme replaced the UK’s involvement in the EU’s program of the same name, resulting in immediate price volatility and market insecurity. A cold winter in 2021 also resulted in an enlargement in energy demand across Europe. In September of that year, as British society returned to normality after the COVID-19 lockdowns, gas prices in the UK increased more than fourfold. Prices were similarly affected by the outbreak of war in Ukraine in February 2022. While the UK does not directly import its gas from Russia, the continent-wide embargo of Russian gas resulted in significant shortages and increased demand for Western sources.
Their shared energy crisis has clearly contributed to the UK remaining close to the EU member states
Their shared energy crisis has clearly contributed to the UK remaining close to the EU member states. Because British and continental energy policies were largely the same, there were no significant price differences across the Channel. In July 2022, according to the Household Energy Price Index, the UK and the Czech Republic (52 purchasing power standard per kilowatt-hour) had the highest household electricity prices, with Norway the lowest at just under 13 pps/kWh. The UK’s average household gas prices were roughly in the middle of Europe (15 pps/kWh). The highest was Bulgaria (24 pps/kWh) and the lowest was Hungary (4 pps/kWh), which has refused to cease its imports of Russian gas. Until 2021, the UK enjoyed cheaper gas than the EU average.
The UK’s response to the Ukraine war has essentially been identical to the EU’s. The British government has given financial, humanitarian and security assistance to Kyiv, in addition to imposing sanctions against Russia and Belarus. It has offered almost £400 million ($497 million) overall, including £220 million of humanitarian aid. The UK has also provided vital military aid to Ukraine and continues to work with its allies to supply the Ukrainian military with high-tech weapons. Notably, it has supplied Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles, which Ukrainian forces used to great effect against Russian naval targets in occupied Crimea this summer.
London also offers a sponsorship scheme, Homes for Ukraine, which allows British households to provide accommodation for Ukrainian refugees. And the UK has sanctioned more than 1,000 individuals, entities and subsidiaries connected to the Russian government, while also playing a key role in leading the G7 to remove Russian banks from the SWIFT system.
Although European stances on the Gaza war have been noticeably less unified than those on Ukraine — as much of the developing world supports Palestine in that conflict — the UK’s views have generally aligned with Europe’s. In late October, as the war deepened, all 27 EU leaders repeated their condemnation of Hamas’ attack on Israel and confirmed Israel’s right to defend itself.
In spite of this, the EU was split on a UN General Assembly resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. Spain, Ireland, and France voted for it, Germany and Italy abstained and Czechia, Austria and Hungary voted against it. Protests in support of a ceasefire have occurred in every country and the governments of France and Germany — two of the European states with the largest Muslim populations — have tried to limit pro-Palestinian protests over concerns that they had become antisemitic in nature. In Spain and Belgium, politicians showed more sympathy to Palestinian rights and criticized Israel for its perceived disproportionate response.
Whatever their stances, all European leaders are watching the conflict in Gaza with great concern
The British government has so far expressed solid support for Israel. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visited Israel in late October and voiced “solidarity with the Israeli people,” condemning the actions of Hamas and reaffirming Israel’s right to self-defense. At the same time, Sunak announced a £10 million package for humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians in response to the escalating conflict.
Opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer has also expressed support for Israel and has refused to call for a ceasefire in Gaza. Starmer, who polls suggest will likely become prime minister after the UK’s next parliamentary election, called the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas against Israel as “terrorism” and vowed to stand with Israel. Other senior opposition figures, notably former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, have been far more critical of Israel and sympathetic to the people of Gaza.
Whatever their stances, all European leaders are watching the conflict in Gaza with great concern. An expanded conflict in the region would have a litany of possible negative consequences for Europe, such as increased gas prices, a renewed terrorist threat and a new wave of refugee migration, each of which would inflict further harm on the continent’s economies and societies. Though Britain is no longer in the EU, it is not immune to any of these possibilities.
Much remains uncertain. Sunak this week named former PM David Cameron as his new foreign minister, while the UK will also hold a parliamentary election in the next year. A marked change in the country’s foreign policy under Labour leadership is a distinct possibility and world events, such as the potential reelection of Donald Trump in the US, could create further ambiguities. In such a complicated world, and with great uncertainty ahead, the UK will continue to rely on its stable partnership with Europe in the short run — a partnership that has endured in spite of Brexit and other momentous challenges.
Dr. Diana Galeeva is an academic visitor to Oxford University.
X: @Dr_GaleevaDiana
