World must act fast or face even bigger climate change bill

Back in the days of Muslim rule in Spain, Valencia was known as Medina Al-Turab, or city of sand. After last week’s deluge, it is now more of a city of water and mud. A year’s rain in a single day led to the loss of more than 400 lives and enormous damage to one of Spain’s finest and most historic cities.

Arab rulers installed irrigation systems to manage the waters of the River Turia. Even today, the Tribunal de las Aguas meets every week, as it has done for 1,000 years, to democratically determine the management of these waters. It is arguably the oldest court in the world and perhaps the oldest democratic body in Europe.

The city’s inhabitants will have to tap into every ounce of collective endeavor to recover from this inundation. Already, as so often after disasters, the city’s inhabitants have found unity in adversity, showing wonderful solidarity as they volunteer with brooms and mops to clean up their beloved city. Quite what the ultimate cost will be is in the muddy realm of conjecture.

But of course, there are far broader implications. This is no longer some freak event. Flash floods are just one of the life-threatening challenges people around the globe will increasingly face as a result of climate change. Warmer air can hold more moisture — about 7 percent more for every 1 degree Celsius. This summer, Central Europe, including Germany, faced massive flooding. Coastal areas will be hit by storm surges.

Extreme weather events are becoming routine. Such events have increased fivefold over the last 50 years

Chris Doyle

Human-induced climate change brings with it these extremes. We live in a world where extreme weather events are becoming routine. Such events have increased fivefold over the last 50 years. These include massive droughts, metal-melting heat and winds of 200 mph. Even the most obstinate climate change deniers will have to rethink as the link between cause and impact is directly experienced by more and more people.

Compound extreme events, where two or more extremes occur simultaneously, are also becoming more common. Concurrent disasters are far more challenging and they threaten global supply chains. Grain harvests lost in one country might ordinarily be compensated for by greater yields elsewhere, but not if both regions are affected at the same time. Going forward, this is more likely to occur.

These events cannot be dodged. They are baked into our collective future until, hopefully, solutions can be found and climate change slowed or even reversed.

How many cities in the richer states, let alone in the developing world, could cope with a year’s rain in a day? My guess is that most could not handle a quarter of that.

These extreme weather events also impact our ability to harvest renewable energy. Solar power does not function as well in extreme heat. High winds disrupt wind turbines. Extreme drought affects hydroelectric power production.

What are the options? More stringent measures are required to curtail carbon emissions and fossil fuel consumption, as well as protecting and increasing forests worldwide. Clean energy systems need massive investment. This is happening but at too slow a rate. In 2023, the planet added 50 percent more renewable capacity than in 2022. This is a start, but it needs to be accelerated. China has made considerable strides forward.

The evidence of recent decades is not positive that sufficient measures will be taken fast enough. Many people and businesses are reluctant to pay the costs today.

The evidence of recent decades is not positive that sufficient measures will be taken fast enough

Chris Doyle

What progress has been made in Europe? The EU has claimed that it reduced carbon emissions by 8 percent in 2023, which is a minimum if it is to achieve its own target of cutting emissions by 55 percent by 2030. The EU is the world’s fourth-largest carbon emitter after the US, China and India.

The US and China will play a key role. President Donald Trump pulled America out of the Paris climate change agreement, only for Joe Biden to reverse that move. If the Republican candidate wins this week’s election, he is likely to pull out of the agreement again, almost certainly killing off the entire deal.

Can early warning systems improve our capacity to mitigate against the worst of these events? Hurricane and tsunami warnings have certainly improved. Further advances are vital.

What can be done to prepare for extreme weather events? First of all, politicians and planners have to stop seeing these as one-off, isolated events; instead, they are challenges that we will all face. Building regulations in hurricane and typhoon-prone areas have to be tightened, but this costs money. Public buildings need to be converted to withstand all weather events. Water systems and flood defenses need regular and increased investment, but will ailing economies be able to afford this?

Perhaps most of all, the global system requires a total about-turn in its approach. Acting now is going to cost far less than if we do nothing and pay later. Everyone should pay attention to these events. Most of us will be caught up in them.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech