The British public wants a general election now

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak this month received the news of two thumping by-election defeats for his Conservative Party while he was on a trip to the Middle East, where he was trying — not very successfully — to defuse the volatile situation there. Considering the huge swings in both constituencies from Conservative to Labour, Sunak would probably rather be anywhere in the world but the UK, where support for his party is in complete meltdown.

The trend among the British electorate is in one direction only. People are fed up not only with the current Sunak government but with the past 13 years of Conservative rule and, for most, change cannot come soon enough.

The magnitude of Labour’s victories in these by-elections means that, for the first time since 1997, it is being seen as the governing party in waiting. Although there is no legal obligation to hold the next general election until January 2025, the public is crying out for a change of government and, with it, a change of course for the country.

These by-elections took place following the resignations of two Conservative MPs in undignified circumstances. In one case, former Culture Minister Nadine Dorries finally quit after a prolonged and less than humble tantrum at being denied a peerage by the government. And in the other, Chris Pincher, a former deputy chief whip, resigned his seat in the House of Commons in September after losing an appeal against his suspension from Parliament after he sexually assaulted two men at a private members’ club last summer. Neither case covered the Tories with glory and further by-elections as a result of the party’s MPs misbehaving are pending.

The public is crying out for a change of government and, with it, a change of course for the country

Yossi Mekelberg

In both constituencies, the Tories lost a huge majority — 24,000 and 19,000, respectively. Consequently, it is very tempting to prematurely declare the result of the next general election in favor of Labour and Keir Starmer as the next prime minister, as it looks like there is no way Sunak and the Conservatives could win a general election if they cannot defend such “safe” seats.

However, the earliest we can expect the UK to go to the polls is in the spring and this is a rather long time in politics. It means there is plenty of time for Labour to become complacent. Instead, it needs to continue to design credible policies that will enable the party to hit the ground running in the likelihood of it forming the next administration.

Although there is always the danger of reading too much into by-election results — especially as the nature of Dorries and Pincher’s departures were scandalous and voters were keen to hand the government a bloody nose — the magnitude of the shift toward Labour suggests a profound change in the country’s mood. Many Conservative supporters expressed their frustration with the government by staying away from the polling stations, while others went as far as switching their vote to Labour.

Naturally, fatigue creeps in when a party has been in power for so long, but on this occasion it is more than the public merely becoming tired with the same party. Rather, there is a sense that, in recent years, Conservative Party chaos, incoherence, incompetence and general mediocrity has taken the country backwards.

The National Health Service is at breaking point, with waiting lists excessive to the point that they are detrimental to the public’s health; the soaring cost of living is hitting most those who can afford it the least; the education system is suffering from a chronic shortage of resources; and infrastructure generally is underfunded, with public buildings crumbling due to a lack of maintenance.

The Tories are equally in need of some time on the opposition benches to reflect, reassess and regroup

Yossi Mekelberg

So, it is not surprising that the public no longer believes the government’s promises and expresses its anger in by-elections and opinion polls. One indication that even Conservative MPs no longer expect their party to win the next general election is that about 50 of them have already declared their intention not to seek reelection, including some former senior members of the Cabinet.

The recent party conference season was probably the last before the next general election. Parties look to these gatherings to rally their members, attract donations and give them a boost in the opinion polls, but as far as the Tories are concerned their conference did nothing to change the huge polling gap in favor of Labour. One poll suggests that Labour’s lead has been extended and stands at 47 percent to 24 percent. One forecasting model suggests that this might be translated into a landslide election win, possibly even greater than Tony Blair’s 1997 victory.

More significant is that approval ratings for Labour leader Starmer are becoming ever more favorable. In other words, voting Labour is no longer a protest vote against the mess that the Conservatives have got us all into, including Brexit, but a positive move demonstrating widespread support for Starmer’s leadership and Labour’s plans for governing the country. It is Starmer who keeps the party’s feet on the ground, warning the entire party machine, including his shadow Cabinet, MPs and activists, that nothing has been won yet and calling on them to contest every seat as if it were the one that ensured a majority in the next parliament.

As much as the country needs a change of direction and Labour is eager to return to power, the Tories are equally in need of some time on the opposition benches to reflect, reassess and regroup. They are divided on almost every issue that matters to the country. The party has been hijacked by an extreme-right faction that is parochial, populist and devoid of ideas for getting the country out of the crises it is mired in. Moreover, the party is led by a prime minister who fails to inspire anyone, especially as he vacillates on almost every issue and makes promises that all polls indicate no one believes will be fulfilled.

Above all, the mortal sin for any Conservative Party in government is to increase the tax burden, which is currently the largest since the Second World War, something its core supporters cannot forgive, while the rest of the country is suffering from failing public services despite paying more for them than ever.

Labour and its supporters are right to be cautious and to fight on the doorstep for every vote, but for now it is the government that is doing much of the work for them, as Starmer and his team progress toward a possible landslide.

• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. X: @YMekelberg