https://arab.news/6vbrj
The border between Lebanon and northern Israel has been quiet since the July 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war— not because either side won, but rather that both sides were powerful enough to create a balance of deterrence.
In the south the situation is similar, although the balance of deterrence is not exactly the same. Israel and Hamas have reached an understanding often referred to as “quiet in exchange for quiet”; as long as oneside is not attacking the other, the Israel-Gaza border has remained calm for over a decade except for two violent Israeli attacks in 2018 and 2021.
However, after the brutal security violence against Muslim worshippers in Al-Aqsa Mosque in the past month, Israel found itself under attack not only from both north and south, but on the Syrian front too. Out of 30 rockets launched at northern Israel, 25 were intercepted by US-made Patriot air-defense missiles, and the five that landed caused some damage and injuries but no deaths. A few rockets launched from Syria landed on the Golan Heights without causing serious damage, and rockets were also fired from Gaza without causing harm.
So the attacks were neither lengthy nor effective, but their message was clear: what happens at Al-Aqsa matters — and despite various understandings, Palestinian groups whether affiliated with the PLO or Hamas will not peacefully accept anti-Palestinian violence in Islam’s third-holiest site.
While the simultaneous activation of three fronts caused no major damage or loss of life, they were able to make it clear that nearby Palestinians and Arabs will not sit silent as their fellow Palestinians are being harassed and beaten, and their holy places desecrated.
It did not take long for this message to be understood. Even though the Netanyahu government is loaded with radical far-right fanatics, the three-pronged attacks brought results. When they were added to deadly attacks on settlers in the Jordan Valley and in Tel Aviv, Israel understood that it had to de-escalate. And despite overblown Israeli rhetoric, and even demands that Jordan “order” Muslim worshippers to abstain from the tradition of sleeping overnight in Al Aqsa Mosque, Israeli security in the end did not try to physically remove anyone, and allowed Ramadan to continue without further Israeli attacks and incursions into the holy site.
Israel’s decision to refrain from further violence to evict worshippers from Al-Aqsa is a new paradigm, reflecting an emerging balance of deterrence much like the understandings that have been reached with armed groups in Lebanon and Gaza.
Daoud Kuttab
Ironically, de-escalation was exactly what the US, Jordan, and Egypt had been demanding of Israel and the Palestinians in two consecutive security summits in Aqaba and Sharm El-Sheikh weeks before the start of the overlapping Ramadan and Passover holidays. The Palestinian government headed by Mahmoud Abbas has little control over what worshippers do in Jerusalem, which is totally under the Israel’s security control. The escalation, therefore, was clearly a conscious act of Israelis egged on by radical extremist ministers such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
Israel’s decision to refrain from further violence to evict worshippers from Al-Aqsa is a new paradigm, reflecting an emerging balance of deterrence much like the understandings that have been reached with armed groups in Lebanon and Gaza.
While such understandings can hold for some time, they are not an alternative to a political process and a much stronger agreement with Palestinians and with other actors in the region, both state and non-state.
The harsh Israeli action, which was exposed in numerous videos and photos that were widely shared around the world, made clear the centrality of Jerusalem and the jewel in its crown, Al-Aqsa Mosque. One would think that after decades of controlling the holy city, those in charge of dealing with these sensitive locations would learn the lesson and take preventive steps not to escalate. The escalation was clearly politically motivated by some of the extremists in the government of Israel, and those behind them got their fingers burnt badly. What has also emerged is that quiet diplomacy, even by the US and Jordan, does not have the same effect that a resilient population and their fellow Palestinians and Arabs can have in creating the balance of deterrence.
While that balance is useful as a temporary pacifier, concrete steps are badly needed to ensure that the ugly Israeli violence everyone saw in Al-Aqsa Mosque is never repeated.
• Daoud Kuttab is a former professor at Princeton University and the founder and former director of the Institute of Modern Media at Al-Quds University in Ramallah.
Twitter: @daoudkuttab