Climate Change and the Middle East: What’s at stake for COP27

The Middle East is already dealing with a lot of political and social turmoil. When you add climate change into the mix, things can get downright dangerous.

The biggest direct impacts of climate change on the Middle East will be felt in terms of water supply and food security.

Water shortages are going to become more common as temperatures rise — a huge issue in a region that is already dealing with scarce resources.

Rainfall will decrease, droughts will become more frequent and, as a result, agriculture and food production will be hit — some estimates suggest a 50 percent drop in crop yields in the Middle East by the end of the century.

This will create serious challenges for a rapidly growing population, as well as have a huge impact on the main source of income for many.

Traditional crops that need a lot of water to grow, such as dates and melons, will be in short supply.  

It will also make life increasingly difficult for those who already do not have good access to fresh water.

And that is not all. Climate change will aid the spread of infectious diseases, such as malaria and cholera.

Recent reports show that the Middle East is facing serious challenges, right now. Already there is less water availability and more extreme weather, which has had a knock-on effect on rising food prices.

When temperatures start to rise and water becomes scarce, social and political tensions flare. And when people are desperate, they are more likely to turn to extremism.

The report warns of warming of up to 5C or more by the end of the century if we continue our business-as-usual attitude.

We must work together to fight climate change. Things will only get worse if we do not take steps to reduce carbon emissions. We need to take action now.

That the COP27 meeting is being held in Sharm el-Sheikh makes it even more crucial for the Middle East.

It is so important for countries in the region to come together and share ideas about how to adapt to this new reality.

It is not going to be easy, but with the right strategy in place, we can mitigate the worst effects of climate change.

We know oil is a major contributor to climate change. Given many Middle Eastern countries depend on it as a resource, any shift from the fossil-fuel economy towards renewables makes decision-making very difficult.

It would be wrong to think that the weather has nothing to do with what else is going on in the Middle East. It is not just the direct effects of climate change that are causing problems — it is everything that comes with it.

When temperatures start to rise and water becomes scarce, social and political tensions flare. And when people are desperate, they are more likely to turn to extremism.

The region is a powder keg, and climate change is only making things worse. We need to act now if we want to avoid a full-blown crisis.

• Mansour Almazroui is a climate change expert at King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.