Vision 2030: progress and impact on Saudi economy and society 
Saudi Arabia launched Vision 2030 in 2016 as part of its plan to reduce oil reliance, and transform the economy and society. By answering five questions, the reform program’s impact on government budgets, investments, the non-oil economy, and the social sector can be examined.
1. What effects does Vision 2030 have on the social sector, namely on employment and the skilled Saudi labor force?
Since 2016, women’s empowerment has been a key focus in social transformation, with the women’s labor market participation increasing from 17.4 percent in 2017 to 36.2 percent at the end of 2024. This has more than doubled in just six years, and the unemployment rate for female workers is at an all-time low. The proportion of women in middle and senior management roles has also increased to 43 percent.
The Kingdom is investing in upskilling its workforce through educational efforts and training programs, creating hospitality academies, and collaborating with global training institutions. EFG Hermes has established a $300 million Saudi Education Fund as part of Vision 2030, and initiatives such as the SME Development Bank and Kafala program help small enterprises obtain funding and reduce unemployment. As a result, the proportion of Saudis working in high-skilled occupations has increased from 32 percent in 2016 to over 40 percent.
2. How has the economy of non-oil industries emerged because of Vision 2030?
The Kingdom has implemented policies to reduce its reliance on oil, primarily in infrastructure, tourism, and technology. The country is also diversifying its economy through government revenue diversification, such as VAT and other broad-based tax measures. The Kingdom is initiating over 5,000 projects (totalling more than $5 trillion) as part of an ambitious economic reform, investing in industry, tourism, sports, and clean and renewable energy. New residency programs have been introduced to attract top talent.
The non-oil economy now makes up 52 percent of overall economic activity, with an anticipated 65 percent by the end of the decade. Industries driving this growth include manufacturing, construction, communication, finance and business, wholesale and retail trade, restaurants, hotels, and logistics and transportation.
More importantly, tourism is one of the main industries supported by the non-oil economy, expanding at an average annual rate of 10 percent and making up 10.4 percent of gross domestic product. Due to strong regulatory compliance and rises in the VAT rate, non-oil revenue doubled in just four years. In 2024, non-oil exports reached a record $136 billion, and private sector investments totaled SR1.18 trillion ($480 billion). The country is also now closer to its target of increasing fixed capital formation to 30 percent of GDP.
3. In the context of Vision 2030, what major capital expenditures are expected to be made?
Saudi Arabia plans to invest $1 trillion into six sectors by the end of the decade, including clean technology, metals and mining, transportation and logistics, and $870 billion of mega-projects, including the NEOM project. Non-oil sectors will receive 73 percent of the investment funding, while $235 billion will be allocated to clean energy, with $8.4 billion spent on building the largest green hydrogen manufacturing facility in the world.
More specifically, over $800 billion has been committed to infrastructure development, with $206 billion for clean technology, $170 billion for mining and metals, and $150 billion for logistics and transportation. There is also a $147 billion investment in digital transformation, focusing on network capacity, particularly 5G and fiber-to-the-home additions. Upstream energy will be expanded through natural gas and oil capacity, while $100 billion has been set aside for downstream energy projects, including crude oil to chemicals and technology products. The Kingdom’s Vision aims to grow its current initiatives and make significant capital commitments to new ones.
4. How are Vision 2030-related initiatives affecting governmental budgets, and how are they funded?
Over the past three years, Saudi Arabia’s budget spending has increased by 30 percent due to the Vision 2030 diversification program. The Kingdom is taking a cautious approach to managing the budget deficit, which is reflected in the current account’s decline into the red in Q3 2024. The Saudi economy requires a Brent price of about $80/barrel to balance its current account, up from less than $55 in 2022.
In 2025, Saudi Arabia plans to continue issuing debt, raising $17 billion in Eurobond debt last year, excluding syndicated loans. This year, the government must pay $6.6 billion to amortize Eurobond debt. The Saudi government has the capacity to take on a large amount of debt due to its moderate, affordable, and favorable structure. Foreign investments have grown from $7.4 billion to $29.7 billion, providing a buffer for the government’s finances. Export activities are expected to rely heavily on biotechnology, artificial intelligence, the digital economy, and logistics services infrastructure to generate foreign currency cash to fund the Vision’s initiatives.
5. How does the Kingdom intend to turn Vision 2030 into a triumph?
The Vision 2030 approach in Saudi Arabia shares similarities with strategies used in Korea and Singapore, which have successfully escaped the middle-income trap. The government’s expenditure plans are based on OPEC+ arrangements, ensuring stability in oil prices. Saudi Arabia is expected to make significant progress in strategic sectors, including financial services, real estate, utilities, renewables, metals, mining, consumer goods, retail, transportation, logistics, food and agriculture, construction, entertainment, leisure, sports, aerospace and defense, and telecom, media and technology.
Furthermore, to ensure the success of the vision and transform the economy and society, the Kingdom has taken a proactive approach to managing returns on capital, investment expenditures, and successful implementation of reforms. For sure, Vision 2030 is a crucial plan for the economy’s growth to ensure it is less reliant on the funding sources used in the past three decades, and serves as a launching pad for the country’s future greatness.
Dr. Yaseen Ghulam is associate professor of economics and director research at Al-Yamamah University, Riyadh.
