RIYADH: The central banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council region increased the benchmark borrowing rates by three-quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve doubled down its fight to combat inflation.
The decision was made after the Fed increased the policy rate by 75 basis points, the fourth interest rate hike in the last four months, and the highest since 1994.
GCC central banks try to restore price stability
To restore price stability and fight inflation, the Saudi Arabia Central Bank, also known as SAMA, raised its repurchase agreement rate by 75 bps to 3 percent, and its reverse repo rate by a similar margin to 2.50 percent.
The central banks in the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain also raised their interest rates to 2.4 percent, 3 percent and 3.25 percent, respectively.
The Central Bank of Kuwait, which ties its currency to a basket rather than just the dollar, also increased its discount rate by 0.25 bps to 2.50 percent.
The Central Bank of Oman also increased interest rates of local banks by 75 bps to 3 percent.
Will Saudi Arabia get affected?
Fawaz Al-Fawaz, a Saudi-based independent economist and columnist, however, believes that the rate hikes will not have a huge impact on a larger level.
“The effect on the macroeconomic picture is not likely to be significant given rates are rising from historically low levels and just reached the so-called ‘normal’ rates. At the macro level, specifically in public finance, the rate rise came as Saudi public finance improved immensely, hence the need to borrow declined,” said Al-Fawaz.
He added: “The most likely effect of the growing debt on the consumers, especially the mortgages, could curtail their abilities to spend money on other things.”
Contrary to Al-Fawaz’s views, Riyadh-based analyst Abdullah Baeshen said that the recent developments will affect the Saudi Arabian economy like any other world economy.
“Higher cost for services and goods will change the attitude of customers. People will move away from goods like higher brands, luxury, assets, and sometimes, maybe to the most important services like healthcare, education and food," said Baeshen.
He added: "The higher inflation is coming because most of the goods come to the Saudi market from outside. Overall, I think we are going to see the government trying to control inflation more than controlling interest rates, as inflation affects all population, especially the low income."
Inflation in Saudi and UAE less than the West
Inflation in the US in June hit 9.1 percent, the highest since 1981. In countries including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, inflation has not had as great an impact.
In Saudi Arabia, the Arab world's largest economy, the annual inflation rate edged up to 2.3 percent in June of 2022 from 2.2 percent in May, according to the data released by the General Authority for Statistics.
"As the interest rate is going up, and if you cannot control inflation at the same time, it is going to be unusual for the economy, and then you will be adding double digits for higher costs of living," Baeshen further added.
Economists at FocusEconomics have projected Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate to average at 2.4 percent in 2022. They also projected inflation in the Kingdom at 2.2 percent in 2023.
Jadwaa Investments also forecast the Kingdom’s inflation to reach 2.4 percent in 2022, driven by a global rise in food prices.
In the UAE, inflation is relatively low compared with rates in other parts of the world. The Consumer Price Index in the UAE increased to 3.4 percent during the first quarter of 2022.
