Democrats vulnerable as Republicans expose their shortcomings

A combination of economic and political factors is hampering the chances of the Democrats performing well in the November US midterm elections. Shifting trends, such as inflation and high gas prices in particular, are very negative for the Democrats. The war in Ukraine has also tarnished President Joe Biden’s foreign policy legacy, with him perceived as projecting an image of a weak president on the world stage.
Many in America, especially Republicans, believe Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan has led to big spending that was initially intended to provide economic relief as a result of the coronavirus. He also pursued another lavish economic spending package, the £1 trillion infrastructure bill.
However, the most difficult question is who to blame for the rise in inflation. Several Democrats are attributing it to a global drift that has Europe suffering even more than the US. The Bureau of Labor Statistics last week announced that the real wage rate for every American fell by 2.6 percent over the last 12 months.
But there is a division among Democrats regarding who to blame. Few are trying to accuse corporate America, especially its practices of economic greed and economic monopoly, for the rise in prices. Thus far, many Democrats have been reluctant to pursue such a strategy because it could alienate many sectors in the American economy, especially the business community.
Analytically, Biden does not have a comprehensive economic strategy. In addition, the American people know that inflation had been kicking up before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Importantly, the Democrats must accept responsibility for their failure to combat inflation. Such a change to the defensive political attitude of the Democrats could resonate well with the American voters. Despite this, there are no assurances of electoral success for the Democratic Party in the coming gubernatorial and congressional votes.
Therefore, many Democratic candidates in states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are pleading with Biden and the Democratic Party establishment to abolish the gasoline tax to lower prices and help keep a lid on inflation.
The strategy of most Republican candidates is based on focusing on Biden and the Democrats’ failure to stop the deteriorating economic conditions and their failure to contain the emerging COVID-19 pandemic, while exposing the divisions within the Democratic Party and the international crises facing the US under the leadership of the Biden administration. Their key points are: Accusing the Democrats of failing to contain inflation; criticizing Biden's legislative agenda, particularly focusing on the concerns raised by former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, a Democrat, about inflation; pushing back against mandatory vaccinations; condemning Biden’s enhanced unemployment benefits, saying they are “exorbitant grants” that have contributed to labor shortages and high inflation; and blaming Democrats for supply chain problems and for failing to resolve the immigration issue.
There are indicators pointing to the growing chances of the Republicans in the midterm congressional elections. Late last year, an ABC News/Washington Post poll showed that if the midterm elections were held at that time, 51 percent of all registered voters would vote Republican, compared to 41 percent who would vote Democratic.
In 2021, House Republicans focused on erasing the Democrats’ fundraising advantage — and they have achieved just that. It has been reported that, since last June, the Republican National Committee has outperformed its Democratic counterpart, raising $70.4 million compared to the Democrats’ $68.7 million.

The strategy focuses on the ruling party’s failure to stop the deteriorating economic conditions and contain the pandemic.

Maria Maalouf

A major factor in the Democrats’ expected decline is the large number of the party’s members who are declining to run for reelection in the midterms. At least 28 House Democrats have said they will not run again this year, compared to only 13 Republicans. This may indicate that the Democrats sense the extent of the crisis they are facing.
The Democrats appear to be losing the coalition they have built to win elections. They are losing big among the independents and Latino voters.
To sum up, the Democrats can take pride in applying the necessary measures to remedy the American economy, but their policies are creating more problems than they are solving, especially as they are not able to distinguish between the domestic and global elements that are hurting the US economy and causing pain for the average American consumer.
Finally, it can be said that, despite the growing chances of Republican success in the midterms, matters are still not settled and these opportunities are only positive indicators. The situation may change suddenly and the Democrats could succeed in overcoming their differences and passing a number of the major laws they desire. Also, the general mood may change if the latest wave of the pandemic subsides and the economic situation improves.

• Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher and writer. She has a master’s degree in political sociology from the University of Lyon. Twitter: @bilarakib