Uncertainties remain over Turkey-Israel ties

Israeli President Isaac Herzog last week paid a two-day visit to Turkey in an effort to revive bilateral relations, which have remained dormant for more than a decade. There was nothing that prevented Turkey taking such a step earlier.
Bilateral relations between Turkey and Israel will be relatively easy to salvage if goodwill prevails on both sides, but it will be more difficult for Turkey to restore the lost support of the Jewish lobby in the US. Ankara needs the support of this lobby in achieving anything in Turkey-US relations.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strong bias for Hamas is no secret. But we do not know to what extent he is prepared to revise this policy. In his address to the media after the summit, he reiterated, in Herzog’s presence, Turkey’s Palestine policy in favor of the two-state solution, as well as the importance that Ankara attaches to the preservation of the sanctity of Al-Aqsa Mosque. A big portion of this statement may be a message to the conservative members of the ruling AKP. Erdogan’s anger at Israel’s Palestine policy may resurface at any time.
Criticizing Israel is not a rare event in Turkey. Some criticisms are organized openly or at the hardly dissimulated instigation of the AKP or by small groups in the party acting on their own initiative.
Temel Karamollaoglu, the chairman of the Felicity Party, which is a member of the six-party opposition bloc, criticized Herzog’s visit, saying: “If Turkey’s relations with Israel is normalized, this means that our relations with Palestine is deteriorating. No normalization should be allowed unless Israel withdraws from the Occupied Territories and a Palestinian state is established in these territories.” The Felicity Party is supported by only 2.8 percent of the Turkish electorate, but Karamollaoglu is a respected veteran in the country’s domestic politics.
Turkish-Israeli relations have fluctuated for a long time and have never been cordial during the AKP’s 20 years in government. One may even say that this has been the most combative era. The ruling party’s deep-rooted anti-Israel sentiments may have been the main reason. This is not a political attitude, but a confessional one. In addition, Erdogan’s and Benjamin Netanyahu’s horoscopes did not match.
However, Turkey now needs to mend relations not only with Israel, but many other Middle Eastern countries too. Egypt is dragging its feet to make sure that Turkey displays a stable attitude. Israel may do the same, since it is more hesitant than Egypt. It may have taken too long for Turkey to make this step toward Israel, but all’s well that ends well. However, their relations may collapse again if the Turkish government repeats its earlier mistakes.

Bilateral relations have fluctuated for a long time and have never been cordial during the AKP’s 20 years in government.

Yasar Yakis

Erdogan mentioned in his address to the media that the two leaders talked about cooperation in the field of oil and gas in the Eastern Mediterranean and that the Turkish ministers of foreign affairs and energy were expected to visit Israel soon. Such cooperation may be detrimental to the initiatives Israel has undertaken with Greece, Egypt and Cyprus, but there is a new situation: The US has withdrawn its support for a common project to carry Eastern Mediterranean gas to Europe via a pipeline to be laid on the seabed because it was not expected to be profitable. But with the embargoes imposed on Russia by the US and certain EU countries, a pipeline that will go to Europe through Turkey may now become feasible and profitable. There will be several difficulties to overcome for such a project to become reality, but they can be sorted out if there is a will.
The Israeli media has shown only reserved enthusiasm for the improvement of relations with Turkey. The only promising area was trade volume, which has steadily increased and is expected to reach $10 billion by the end of this year.
Herzog, in his address to the Israeli media before departing for Ankara, kept expectations as modest as possible by saying: “We will not agree on everything, but we will try to restart relations.” He has also said that the past disagreements between the two countries will not disappear by themselves. This was an invitation by the Israeli president for both sides to work earnestly to eliminate such problems. Another subtle detail in Herzog’s statement was that he said his trip was being made in full coordination with the Israeli prime minister and foreign minister. The fact he made such a statement suggests there was an important reason to do so.
Turkish-Israeli relations seem set to improve, but it is difficult to guess how soon this may happen.

• Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the ruling AK Party.
Twitter: @yakis_yasar