Iran’s presidential election threatened by boycott calls

At a time when the Iranian regime is desperately seeking to secure the largest possible turnout for the presidential election scheduled for June 18 — in order to avoid any repetition of the embarrassing scenario that occurred during the previous parliamentary election — recent days have seen unprecedented and rapidly growing calls for the vote to be boycotted.
This is shocking since the growing talk of boycotting the election has even spread to the hard-line advocates of the Iranian revolution, who were, until very recently, among its most fervent defenders. One prominent figure, Faezeh Hashemi Rafsanjani, claimed that the election offers nothing and will do nothing to change the unsatisfactory status quo in the country.
Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has threatened to boycott the election if the Guardian Council decides to disqualify him from standing as a candidate. Ahmadinejad is essentially dog whistling to instruct his supporters to stay away from the polling stations if he is disqualified.
Relatives of the victims of the regime’s 2009 attacks on the Green Movement and family members of those killed by regime forces amid the social and political protests of December 2017 and November 2019 have also threatened to withhold their votes. In addition, family members of those aboard the Ukrainian passenger plane that was shot down in January 2020 by the regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and relatives of detainees killed in Iranian prisons are supporting the calls to boycott the election.
Meanwhile, 231 civil and political activists from 50 cities and 25 provinces across Iran have issued a statement and message to the Iranian people, calling on them to boycott the June election. They described it as a “show and charade.” The activists asserted that, by not participating in this election, the Iranian people could move toward achieving a peaceful transition of power away from the fundamentalist theocratic Velayat-e Faqih regime to a democratic and secular leadership with a constitution inspired by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
While there have been many calls to boycott Iran’s elections in the past, they have never been as strong, numerous and determined as those witnessed in the past few weeks.
There is a general feeling of dissatisfaction among those supporting a boycott. These people feel that participation in the election grants unmerited legitimacy to the Iranian regime, while the Iranian people play no significant role in the country’s political life.
In addition, there is a widespread perception that the election will only lead to a meaningless reshuffle of junior officials, while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will continue to wield absolute power, having the final say over political, economic and security affairs.
It seems that the events that Iran has experienced in recent years — particularly the brutal crackdown on protesters in 2017 and 2019, the shooting down of the Ukrainian passenger plane and the woeful inefficiency of Rouhani’s government and its total failure to solve the severe economic problem plaguing the country — are among the most important reasons for the growing calls to boycott the presidential election.
The hard-liners within the Iranian regime understand that disqualifying candidates, especially the leaders of the so-called reformist movement, could result in a significant number of their supporters and backers boycotting the election.
These hard-liners also realize that having candidates with diverse platforms could enhance the turnout. However, it seems unlikely they will reverse the disqualification policy of the Guardian Council for several reasons. Most importantly, the hard-liners will not allow the reformists to return to power at any cost, even if this means a low voter turnout.
There are leaked reports confirming that the Iranian regime intends to crack down on the internet, especially social media platforms, to undermine the growing boycott calls. A top-secret letter signed by Javad Javidnia, the deputy head of the justice department for Tehran province, has ordered the bosses of telecommunications and cellular firms to closely monitor cyberspace. The move targets Instagram, Google Play, virtual private networks and other social media platforms.
It is widely acknowledged that disqualifying a large number of candidates from the presidential race, whether they are reformists, conservatives or moderates, will result in the candidate favored by Khamenei and the IRGC commanders winning the election.
While opinion polls carried out by specialist Iranian agencies and organizations have warned of the possibility of a low turnout, Guardian Council spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhodaei asserted that would not delegitimize the election. Reality suggests otherwise, however, with many believing that remarks like Kadkhodaei’s mask deep concern within the Iranian regime about the possibility of a significant boycott, possibly even surpassing the woeful turnout at Iran’s last parliamentary election in February 2020, which saw a record abstention rate that surpassed 57 percent.

These people feel that participation in the election grants unmerited legitimacy to the Iranian regime.

Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami

The regime, fearing this possibility, could resort to various means to encourage the Iranian street, filled with frustration and resentment toward it and its disastrous policies in multiple areas, to get out and vote. The regime has traditionally linked its legitimacy to a high voter turnout, but the latter has gradually declined over the years.
It might well resort to its usual policy of muzzling dissidents and bullying and cajoling the electorate into voting. It could also resort to labeling boycott advocates as traitors and accusing them of treason, enmity toward the revolution and implementing foreign agendas targeting Iran.
Given the growing boycott calls and media reports, as well as opinion polls suggesting a record low turnout on June 18, the regime’s old strategy of threats and intimidation are unlikely to work in forcing the Iranian electorate to the polling stations. The general disillusionment with the regime and its policies and the expectation that a hard-line president will soon take Rouhani’s place in the presidential Saadabad Palace means that anyone hoping to achieve a high turnout in the election, like that witnessed in 2017, is likely to be disappointed.

• Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is President of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami