Erdogan’s Libya plan fails to find favor

Among the achievements of last week’s Berlin conference, we may count the opportunity that it provided to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to see for himself the difficulties that lie ahead in the implementation of his Libya policy.
He was looking at the Berlin conference as an opportunity to explain to the participating leaders the rationale of his approach. In this regard, he published an article in Politico before he traveled to Berlin. The title of the article summarized what he had to say: “The road to peace in Libya goes through Turkey.”
Turkey was expecting to become a key voice in Berlin because it had signed an agreement with the Tripoli government that could change the parameters in its fight with the Tobruk government, which is supported by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. 
Despite the fact Haftar was controlling about three-quarters of Libya’s territory and its main oil exports, Turkey had based its policy on a lack of recent progress by Haftar’s forces. Ankara was not expecting that Sirte would be seized so quickly, so that came as a cold shower to Turkey ahead of the Berlin conference.
The Tripoli government signing a memorandum of understanding with Turkey may have re-energized a process that was already underway to seek a lasting solution to the Libyan crisis. But there was intensive anti-Turkish lobbying underway before the meeting. France, Egypt, Greece and the UAE were the most active campaigners to that effect. 
Greece was expected to be Turkey’s main challenger at the conference, but German Chancellor Angela Merkel foresaw the risk and refrained from inviting Athens. Greece’s disappointment must have been sizeable but, thanks to this measure, Merkel was able to prevent the Berlin conference from turning into a Turkish-Greek talk show.
According to news leaked to the German media, Turkey tried its hand in Berlin but there was no encouraging support for its Libya policy. The participating countries remained aloof to Turkey’s initiatives. 

Ankara was not expecting that Sirte would be seized so quickly, so that came as a cold shower.

Yasar Yakis

Strong opposition came from Egypt, both as a neighboring country of Libya and as a leading member of the Arab League. Talking to Egyptian media on the subject of the Berlin conference, Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit said that Turkey’s military intervention in Libya made the situation in the country more complex.
The joint communique of the meeting stated that the leaders present — including Erdogan, of course — will “refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of Libya and urge the international actors to do the same.” By this article, Erdogan committed himself not to interfere in Libya. There are also many other paragraphs in the communique that effectively ban Turkey from doing what it was initially planning in Libya. 
The Russian daily Moskovsky Komsomolets wrote immediately after the meeting: “As it turned out, the Turkish leader left the conference ahead of schedule, when it became clear that his proposals for armed intervention in the Libyan conflict did not find support from other participants. The president of Turkey looked nervous and gloomy.”
On his way back from Berlin, Erdogan told Turkish journalists that he talked to various leaders and explained to them the rationale of his approach, but little is known as to what extent they agreed with him.
The leader with whom Erdogan cooperates most closely is Russian President Vladimir Putin, but Turkey is again in a different boat to Russia in the Libyan crisis. The initiative that the two leaders launched for a cease-fire in Libya fell short of yielding the desired results. 
Even if Turkey decides to go ahead with its policy, any meaningful military operation by the Turkish army in this distant country may hit logistical problems in view of the long supply routes. Ankara could not obtain the support of Libya’s western neighbors, Tunisia and Algeria, to facilitate this task.
Haftar, for his part, strongly opposed the inclusion of any Turkish soldier in a potential international force to be established for peace-keeping.
A fierce reaction from Ayesha Qaddafi, the daughter of Libya’s slain leader Muammar Qaddafi, added insult to injury. “When Turkish soldiers’ boots desecrate the soil of our homeland, which was watered by the blood of our martyrs, if there is no one among you to repel this aggression, then leave the battlefield to the free women of Libya and I will be at their forefront,” she said.
This is where we stand with Turkey’s plan to extend military assistance to the Tripoli government. 

• Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and a founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar