Here comes 2020, when the world goes to the polls

The eyes of much of the world will be on the US election season in 2020, with Donald Trump aiming for a second presidential term, and congressional elections too. But there are also eye-catching ballots on every continent that will not just shape domestic politics and economics, but also international relations well in the 2020s.

In New Zealand, the election on Nov. 21 will reveal if Prime Minister Jacinta Ardern, who until recently was the world’s youngest government leader, can win a second term. First off the blocks in Asia-Pacific, however, are next week’s presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan. Held in the context of the unrest in Hong Kong, which itself holds a ballot this year too, this will be one of Taiwan’s most important elections in a generation, with a growing risk of a cross-strait crisis with China.    

The Taiwanese public have been paying significant attention to Hong Kong’s protests. Next week’s election will be fought between Democratic Progressive Party President Tsai Ing-wen, who has expressed sympathy for Hong Kong’s demonstrators, with polls indicating she is likely to win, and Han Kuo-yu from the pro-Beijing opposition Kuomintang (KMT), the organization that fled to Taiwan about 70 years ago after losing power to the Chinese Communist Party in the civil war on the mainland. 

The reason Tsai’s re-election could pose problems for cross-straits relations is that Beijing claims Taiwan as its own territory; it wants reunification with what it considers a wayward province, and has never renounced the use of force to achieve the goal.  Tsai has said that “Taiwan will never accept ‘one country, two systems’,” Beijing’s formula for reunification.

In the Middle East and Africa, there are elections from Israel to Iran, and Egypt to Ethiopia. It is perhaps Israel, however, which is the stand-out, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks re-election for the third time in less than a year.

The eyes of much of the world will be on the US election season in 2020, with Donald Trump aiming for a second presidential term, and congressional elections too.

Andrew Hammond

The March 3 vote is so important because it comes amid concerns that government paralysis is weakening public trust in an already highly polarised political system. Inconclusive elections in April and September 2019 left Netanyahu and his principal opponent, Blue and White Party leader Benny Gantz, unable to form a coalition of 61 seats.

As well as scheduled elections, there may be key “snap elections” too.  In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may call a vote before or after the Tokyo Summer Olympic Games.

There are growing signs too that the German “grand coalition” could collapse, ending the Angela Merkel era that began in 2005. Merkel has been a dominant figure in 21st-century European politics; to put her longevity into perspective, three US presidents (George Bush, Barack Obama, and Trump), four French presidents (Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy, Francois Hollande and Emmanuel Macron) and five UK prime ministers (Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, David Cameron, Theresa May, and Boris Johnson) have served during her tenure. 

But it is to the Americas that we must look for the big one; yes, there will be voting from Peru to Bolivia, but the stand-out will be the US elections. 

With Republicans aiming to retain the Senate, and Democrats hoping to hang on to the House of Representatives, Trump has a significant chance of winning a second term. Despite his controversial presidency and weak job approval ratings, key economic and political fundamentals are in his favor, including the robust economy that has enjoyed the longest period of expansion in US history, more than 120 months.

Moreover, modern US history generally favors presidents winning a second term, with the last three incumbents re-elected.  Indeed, since the 1930s, the party that wins the presidency has held the White House for at least two terms of office, with only one exception: Jimmy Carter’s failure against Ronald Reagan in 1980.

While Trump will probably prove a tough opponent, he is not unbeatable, and much could also therefore depend on who the Democrats choose this year, and how effective a campaign they rus.  And one of the key factors that will influence the party’s prospects of victory will be whether, and how quickly, it can unite around this nominee given the significant number of contenders still in play. 

After the policy and personal controversies of Trump’s presidency, many Democratic operatives are keen to avoid a bruising, introspective and drawn-out contest that exposes significant party division to the electorate, as happened in 2016.  Then, key differences between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders contributed to the party losing an election that was winnable, given the wafer-thin margins of victory for Trump is several battleground states.  

• Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics