Iraqi ‘renaissance’ puts pressure on country’s leaders
Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi marked one year in office on Oct. 25. As the second phase of the country’s ongoing mass protests commenced on that date, it also marked the imminent end of his unremarkable leadership. Abdul-Mahdi’s ascension to high office is the product of the very politics — venal and corrupt — that his people are vociferously protesting against.
The first protests were relatively low key, beginning on Oct. 1 with demonstrations in Baghdad. They spread quickly to the southern cities of Basra, Najaf, Karbala, Diwaniya and Nasiriyah, with thousands of people on the streets demanding jobs, improved services and, above all, dignity. These expanded to include calls for wide-ranging electoral reforms and a new government.
The government, surprised and ill-prepared, responded with brute force, so that in two weeks about 120 people were killed and a few thousand wounded. In mid-October there was a week’s lull for the Arbaeen pilgrimage at Karbala, after which even larger demonstrations overwhelmed Iraq’s cities. The harsh response of the security forces has continued so that, over the last 10 days, nearly 150 have been killed by armed police, including through the use of snipers.
These protests reflect the anger at continuing misgovernance in Iraq and follow earlier demonstrations in 2008, 2015 and 2018, which were propelled by the same governmental failures relating to civic services, unemployment and endemic corruption. A new element in the ongoing protests is the insistence that “foreign influence” on the government be curbed — clearly a reference to Iran.
Public demonstrations in 2018 were curbed quickly by the security forces amid fervent promises of reform by national leaders. They delivered nothing, but simply went back to their corrupt deal-making — the hallmark of an order where 60 percent of the population is aged below 25 and is suffering with an unemployment rate of 40 percent. These are the youth spearheading the protests, unafraid of tear gas, water cannon, cudgels and bullets.
The greatest source of popular anger is corruption, which is inherent in the political system. According to opinion polls from early this year, 82 percent of Iraqis place corruption at the top of their national concerns, and 83 percent believe it is getting worse.
Iraq’s electoral system requires that ruling coalitions be shaped after national elections. These are achieved through inter-party bargains where ministerial and civil service positions are apportioned among aspirants for high office, who in turn enrich themselves through lucrative government contracts awarded to cronies.
Thus, Iraq sees 75 percent of its annual budget being used to fund public sector employees, with hardly any resources available for health, education, services and infrastructure development. It is this system that the protesters wish to root out.
The tenacity of the protesters has left Iraq’s leaders scrambling for an effective response. Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani has backed the protesters and condemned the violence against them. Abdul-Mahdi has promised a substantial reform package that includes a new Cabinet with technocrats; wide-ranging electoral reform; government control over militias; improved services; and enhanced welfare for the poor. With his promises having no credibility, he has now offered to resign. President Barham Salih, whose post is largely ceremonial, has backed the protesters and promised early elections based on new electoral laws.
However, it is the heads of the two largest alliances in parliament — Muqtada Al-Sadr of Sairoon and Hadi Al-Amiri of Fatah — who, with vested interests in the existing electoral system, will actually determine Iraq’s immediate political future.
Al-Sadr had attempted to gain some plus points for himself from the demonstrators by proclaiming his backing for them, but he was unceremoniously hooted out for his opportunism. Al-Amiri remains resolutely pro-Iran and hostile to the protesters. According to news reports, Al-Sadr and Al-Amiri will seek to replace Abdul-Mahdi with a new prime minister, failing which they could renew Abdul-Mahdi’s mandate and insist that he effect reforms within a specified time frame.
This upsurge is youth-driven, spontaneous, and not directed by any political or religious influence.
Talmiz Ahmad
Iran’s approach has been to accept that many of the demands of the protesters are legitimate, but has directed its ire at the US for seeking “to collapse” the Iraqi political system. Iran has significant political, strategic and economic interests in Iraq. Given the assets it has, such as the militias and political parties it is affiliated with, Tehran will resist any attempt to dilute its influence.
The US has maintained a low-key posture, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo merely calling on the government to listen to the “legitimate demands” of protesters and relax curbs on “freedom of the press and expression.”
But the protests have seriously challenged the political order. This upsurge is youth-driven, spontaneous, and not directed by any political or religious influence. The commentator Douglas Ollivant has described the demonstrations as a “renaissance… characterized by a vitality and nationalism that is breathtaking to long-term observers.”
The youth of Iraq fervently hope that their anger and sacrifice will truly herald a new democratic order. Will their leaders listen or simply go back to politics as usual? The answer will be known fairly soon.
- Talmiz Ahmad is an author and former Indian ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the UAE. He holds the Ram Sathe Chair for International Studies, Symbiosis International University, Pune, India.
