Boris takes the election gamble of his life

British MPs will decide on Monday whether Boris Johnson can call the first Christmas-season general election since 1923.  The prime minister badly wants the vote on Dec. 12, but it is a huge gamble that could easily backfire.

Johnson’s promise to leave the EU “do or die” by Oct. 31 having vaporized, he is looking to deflect the political embarrassment by acting decisively, as well as heading off a challenge from the hardline Brexit Party for the votes of “Leave” supporters.

It is a massive roll of the dice on at least three levels, which is why the  Cabinet was divided on the issue last week; the evaporation of Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May’s big polling lead in 2017 remains fresh in the memory.

The first level of uncertainty is whether Johnson can get his election call past the House of Commons. He requires a two-thirds majority, but his ruling Conservative Party has no majority at all.

Second, there are good reasons why the UK has not held a December election for almost a century. One is the winter weather, which would probably depress turnout, bringing further unpredictability.  

A third level of uncertainty — unprecedented UK voter volatility — is documented in new data this month from the British Election Study (BES), perhaps the most authoritative survey of UK voting behavior.

If issues do shift beyond Brexit, prime minister Boris Johnson will have been relieved that the House of Commons has backed his government’s legislative program.

Andrew Hammond

Traditional partisan voting patterns are eroding, the BES found, and issues such as immigration and Europe are at least as important in determining overall voting behavior as traditional right-left party allegiances. In the 2017 election, there was the highest level of switching between the Conservatives and Labour since the BES started its research in 1964. This phenomenon was driven by Brexit, with Labour winning the support of 31 percent of previous Tory voters because of its more pro-EU stance, and the Conservatives winning the loyalties of significant numbers of pro-Leave former Labour supporters. 

Johnson’s election gameplan for Dec. 12 is to frame the election around Brexit, as was May’s in 2017.  He perceives his best opportunity to win is to go to the polls as early as possible, and try to outflank opposition parties with a claim to being the only competent leadership to oversee the UK’s departure from the EU.  

But what if the electorate sees the ballot through a wider prism of issues such as the economy, the National Health Service, and crime, as the Labour Party will encourage it to do? Johnson would not be able to fight on his chosen terrain, which was May’s Achilles’ heel in 2017.  

It is also possible, in a long campaign, that Johnson will make gaffes under pressure; he is a significantly more natural campaigner than May, but remains untested in the crucible of a high-pressure general election.   

If the issues do shift beyond Brexit, the prime minister will have been relieved that the House of Commons has backed his government’s legislative program — with key proposals on health, education, transport and crime — by a majority of 16.

Labour, however, would like the election terrain to focus on this wider agenda because of the significant public-sector cuts since the financial crisis of 2008-09.  On law and order, for instance, the party has pledged re-recruitment of about 20,000 police officers, an agenda Johnson now appears to share.  

It is in this cauldron of uncertainty that the election, if it comes, will be fought. It is far from straightforward to forecast, with the possibility that Johnson proves to be its victim rather than beneficiary, as was the case with May in 2017. 

• Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics