NEW YORK: Wall Street firms recorded their best first half in a decade as profits rose 11 percent, but a slowdown in the global economy and ongoing trade tensions could hit earnings in the second half of 2019, according to a report from the New York State Comptroller.
Even as earnings rose, the amount set aside for compensation declined by almost 1 percent and bonuses in the second half of 2019 will depend heavily on revenue growth, according to the report.
Profitability in the securities industry has grown for three straight years, but growth in net revenue has slowed, reflecting weakness in certain business activities.
“Volatile markets, global trade tensions, and political turbulence have sown economic anxiety and slowed global economic growth,” state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said.
In addition to uncertainty around US-China trade talks, big companies are worried about how Brexit will affect Britain's standing with the rest of Europe, plus violent protests in Hong Kong and more recent threats from the White House about sanctions against Turkey for its invasion of Syria.
Third quarter results from big US banks showed weakness in their market-related businesses. Consumer business, however, remained strong, helping the banks beat market expectations for profit.
The securities industry, which accounts for 17 percent of New York City's economy, has added 15,400 jobs in the city in the past five years. However, job gains in the early part of 2019 have been erased in recent months, the report said.
The current economic environment will continue to create challenges for the securities industry, the report added.
Geopolitical tensions, muted economic data and mixed earnings stymied global stocks on Friday with sterling languishing near a one week lows amid a new bout of Brexit anxiety.
European stock markets traded broadly softer with the pan regional STOXX 600 slipping 0.3 percent, with Germany's DAX eased 0.2 percent while Britain's FTSE fell 0.4 percent.
Losses were led by the food and beverage sector weighed after the world's largest beer maker by Anheuser-Busch InBev tumbled 9 percent on disappointing quarterly profit and a glum outlook as the earnings season rumbled on.
Yet a luxury goods rally led by Kering helped lift France's CAC index 0.1 percent after its star fashion label Gucci posted stronger-than-expected sales, demonstrating how some brands have managed to shield from the fallout over protests in Hong Kong.
