Sharif’s woes far from over

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has so far emerged victorious in this apparent first round of the political crisis stemming from the protest campaigns organized by Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri. An objective analysis of the situation would reveal three principle reasons for his success.
The first is his characteristic calm and cool temperament. Secondly, the army has so far maintained a neutral stance over the issue and pledged its support to democracy. The third reason is the Parliament’s unanimous decision to support the premier.
All these factors may have brought smiles to Sharif’s face and added to his confidence but the crisis is far from over.
A relief, both for Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and for the administration as well has been the judicial magistrate’s decision to order the release on bail of PTI leader and former federal minister Azam Swati and the musician, D. J. Butt. Both were indeed welcome signs for those expecting the situation to improve.
The arrest of singer-musician D. J. Butt from the PTI sit-in was not only absurd but was also illogical. Butt’s services have been utilized by the PPP, PML (N) and many other organizations to attract crowd and provide them with quality entertainment in times of gloom.
The judicial magistrate, ordering Azam Swati to judicial remand on a holiday, showed panic in the administration. But wisdom prevailed later and saved the government from being called ruthless.
Sharif summoned parliamentary leaders for consultations, ought to be welcomed because collective will of the elected representatives would lend him added strength. All those sitting in the Parliament, despite different affiliations, have given the beleaguered premier their wholehearted backing, which was entirely a new phenomenon in Pakistan politics, but perhaps also pushed those, engaged in conspiracies, to go on the back foot.
However, those leading the protests and their supporters, displaying unprecedented courage and determination, need not be taken lightly. Confrontation or use of force needs to be avoided. The arrest campaign, on for the last three days, must not only be halted, but those arrested without rhyme or reason, need to be freed without delay.
Such a decision would add to the premier’s image, who is confronted with two gravest crises of his political career — the sit-ins and the flood disaster. So far he has displayed wisdom and insight, but ought to continue the policy of humility and avoid confrontation at all costs.
Sharif has merely won a battle so far, but the war is still on, and demands farsightedness and a calculated approach. Any hasty decision would place him in an awkward position in which Imran Khan found himself earlier by his unimaginative declarations for non-cooperation movement, and a direct attack on the Parliament. Khan had to pay heavily for his follies. Nawaz need to learn lessons from his rival’s mistakes.
To rebuild economy, ruined by month-long protests and disastrous floods will now be staring him like a monster. How will he avoid relying on taxes to prepare the next budget and survive the likely discontent from fresh taxes, will be his real test now.